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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Pacheco enacted the Legislative Decree that recognizes the state of emergency in RS, new polls on government ratings were published, and the Copom should announce the new basic interest rate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2024

Last night, the president of the National Congress, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), enacted the Legislative Decree Bill that recognizes a state of public emergency in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) until December 31. Yesterday, another poll on the government’s ratings was published—the CNT/MDA poll. As other i...

Industrial output returned to a downward trend in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2024

Moving in a direction opposite to retail sales, industrial output fell by 3% mom, 2.9% yoy (volume terms, sda basis) in March. Here is the fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100, KSH data): The recent downtrend of the industrial sector appears to reflect Europe's industrial weakness, as the same Hungar...

Relations between G7 and Russia at their worst
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2024

On May 6 the ambassador was spoken to in the Russian Foreign Ministry because of statements made by their governments. London maintains that its ambassador was not summoned but attended an ordinary diplomatic meeting. The British Foreign Secretary said that it did not object to Ukraine's using Br...

Putin inaugurated for 5th term
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2024

On May 7 his new presidential term began with his being sworn in at St George's Hall in the Kremlin by the President of the Constitutional Court. This term will last until 2030. He is allowed another term after that if he wins it, and that would take him to 2036, when he will be 83. In his oratio...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Has Georgian Dream shot itself in the foot by pressing on with the Transparency Law?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 May 2024

While Georgia is enjoying a week-long Easter holiday, political developments in the country resemble nothing of a holiday mood. The unexpected decision by Georgian Dream to re-introduce the controversial "Foreign Agents" bill (dubbed the "Russian Law" by the opposition and global media) has set i...

Good news on retail trade and VAT revenue
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 May 2024

Retail trade grew by 2% mom, 3.6% yoy (volume terms, sda basis) in March, meaning consumer demand is indeed picking up at last. Here is the fixed-base chart (volume terms, December 2010 = 100), and then the graph on percentage yoy changes (with real wage growth also presented) a bit further below...

The House approved Lula’s bill on the floods in RS, the payroll tax relief issue continues to be discussed, and the CCJ is expected to vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance policy for vehicles
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2024

Congress and the Government are currently negotiating a series of important matters. The priority right now is the flood in Rio Grande do Sul (RS). Last night, the House approved the proposal submitted by President Lula that decrees a state of public emergency in Rio Grande do Sul until the end o...

Economics: Pemex crude exports fall as company and public finances continue to deteriorate
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2024

Official information regarding the evolution of Petróleos Mexicanos' financial and operating situation, as well as the performance of public finances as of the first quarter of 2024 was released in the last few days. Pemex registered a relative improvement between January and March in some of its...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2024

OVERVIEW ABUNDANCE OF ALERTS After a month of exhausting and ultimately futile friction with Congress, a melancholic manifestation summoned for Worker’s Day was added to an extensive list of alerts that President Lula has been receiving about the efficacy – and the costs – of his governing st...

Beneath the diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China
PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 May 2024

This report adds new information about the economic implications of the China-Philippines maritime conflict to our previously published report "Diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China". It is best to consider that since the dispute is diplomatic, the solution should remain diplo...

An intense week in the Legislature and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2024

This will be a busy week in Brasilia. Arthur Lira may announce the analysis of Tax Reform regulations. In the Senate, the bill that issues R$15.4 billion in credit for the government may be put to a vote. Congress meets to analyze presidential vetoes. The STF resumes adjudication of the state-own...

Politics: Impact of the second presidential debate and a troubling legislative agenda
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2024

The second of three presidential candidates’ debates was held on April 28. Unlike the first event on April 7, in which Xóchitl Gálvez was widely seen as having squandered a crucial opportunity to eat into Claudia Sheinbaum’s lead, this time the opposition coalition nominee appeared better prepare...

Mulino's triumph and prospects for reforms ahead
PANAMA · In Brief · 06 May 2024 · 2 responses

As we forecast in our previous report, José Raúl Mulino was elected President of the Republic of Panama for the period July 2024 to June 2029. He garnered 34.3% of the vote, nearly ten percentage points ahead of Ricardo Lombana, who might have won if there were a runoff. Mulino, whose electoral s...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to moderate amid limited stimulus, murky stats
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 May 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for overall economic activity) grew by 4.7% y-o-y in 1Q24. It grew by 5.1% in 2023. The short-term indicator incorporates the segments of industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportat...

Lira should announce the Working Group on Tax Reform regulation, Congress will analyze presidential vetoes on Thursday, and the STF should resume adjudication of the ADI on the state-owned companies law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2024

The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is expected to announce the creation, composition, rapporteur, and agenda of the Working Group on PLP nº 68/24, the government's first proposal to regulate Tax Reform. According to Lira, the goal is to approve all regulations before Congress recess...

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