GDP grew 9.2% in 2011 to Q4, and 8.9% for the year. Growth slowed steadily but moderately throughout the year, a trend that should be regarded as a return to normal growth patterns....

Industrial production in December and real retail sales in November showed strong growth over the previous month. The factors at play here were the lower real interest rate and the ...

Consumer prices rose by 0.6% in January, which is somewhat higher than the market consensus (0.5%), taking the 12-month rate slightly higher to 10.6%, from 10.5% in December. The so-called ...

The recovery in the global economy remains susceptible to developments in the euro-zone as efforts towards finding a solution to the sovereign debt crisis are intensified. Global growth ...

Five candidates will be included in Russian ballots for March 4 Presidential election. Although Putin’s victory is hardly disputable, he needs to win in a way that would leave no doubts ...

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) kept its good performance and accelerated to a 9.5% y/y increase by the end of November. The value of the index is consistent with our ...

China’s GDP growth is slowing, and we expect the slowdown to persist in H1, lowering growth to 8.5% this year. Industrial output was up 13.9% in 2011 to December, down 0.1 pps from ...

To almost everyone’s surprise, the Board of the Central Bank decided to increase its intervention rate by 25 basis points at the end of its January 30th meeting. A number of reasons ...

The financial tensions that shook the economy during the last quarter of the year seem to be temporarily subdued. As expected, the government is responding to the first signs of economic ...

In the politics article, we analyze risks emanating from Iran, Syria and Iraq. We are excessively pessimistic on Iran and Syria, while retaining hope that Iraq can still pull itself ...

The more hawkish tone of the Inflation Report for December suggested that the Central Bank could shorten the cycle of easing the SELIC rate, recognizing the high risks of inflation ...

The economy failed to accelerate in the fourth quarter, with GDP expanding by only 3.7%. A drop in merchandise exports continued to pull down output as expected, but this time around ...

The Ministry of Finance enjoyed some good news at yearend: the 2011 fiscal deficit is expected to come in at 3.2% of GDP, rather than the 4% forecast earlier. This did not come entirely ...

The global economic uncertainties continue to be high, increasing the margin for error in the projections. There still might be a rupture in Europe, which would worsen the international ...

There was no surprise in today’s MPC statement. Here are the highlights: * The Bank is happy with the ongoing demand rebalancing, which it expects to continue in the forthcoming ...

This will be a year of challenges for the region. Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala will be forced to cope with their internal weakness and disequilibrium, in a world characterized ...

The upcoming February 12 primaries will be a milestone in Venezuelan politics. If participation is strong, the unity opposition presidential nominee wins by a reasonable margin, and ...

Russia's CPI stood at 6.1% in 2011, its lowest level in the past 20 years. A number of simultaneous factors from 2010, when food prices spiked after a summer drought, were behind ...

Ukraine has still obtained no gas discount from Russia, a situation that leaves many other issues unresolved. It looks as though Moscow is not inclined to offer gas advances, and is ...

The Bank noted that cost push factors largely remained the cause of inflationary pressures given the absence of signs pointing to major demand pressures in the economy. In particular,

There are indications that the worst of the recent economic slowdown has passed. The government’s problem rests not in lack of growth, which though still weak, will reach annualized ...

We open the year with an interview of the Philippines’ de facto chief economist, Cayetano W. Paderanga, Jr., head of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA). The NEDA ...

Humala’s shift towards moderation has continued, with only two important officials left in the government belonging to the radical coalition that supported him in the first round of ...

The Ecuadorian economy grew 9% y/y and at 1.7% q/q in Q3 2011, according to the latest information from the Central Bank. Cumulative growth for the three first quarters of 2011 was ...

At last the global turmoil caused by the Euro financial crisis is beginning to spill over into Chile. The recent slowdown in economic activity is reflecting a smooth but significant ...