ANALYSIS & FORECASTS
- South Africa
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 24 May 2013
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.0% per year, citing the deteriorating outlook of the economy in the face of domestic challenges and an uncertain global recovery. This was in line with market expectations given, among ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Quarterly Outlook 17 Apr 2013
In the South African economy consumer confidence has deteriorated and the tempo of manufacturing activity is showing signs of slowing down. This supports the view that a robust recovery is not probable in the short-term. Economic growth is expected to “muddle through”, as has been the case during the ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 20 Mar 2013
Mainly because of an escalation in inflationary pressures, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today opted to leave the repo rate unchanged at 5.0% per year. According to official data released today by Statistics South Africa, headline consumer price inflation gained considerable momentum, drawing ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Special Report 14 Mar 2013
The pace of price increases in the South African economy is expected to gather momentum on the back of a weak rand. Large current account deficits throughout 2012 coupled with market jitters have recently put considerable strain on the rand’s value. Conditions in the South African manufacturing sector ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 12 Mar 2013
Echoing the slowdown in the performance of the wholesale and retail trade sector – as shown in Statistics South Africa’s print of the fourth quarter of 2012 (Q4 2012) gross domestic product (GDP) growth outcome – official figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reveal a loss of momentum ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 28 Feb 2013
Pravin Gordhan, the South African Minister of Finance, tabled the 2013 National Budget Review in Parliament on 27 February 2013. The prevailing state of affairs is that economic growth has been subdued in South Africa as a result of a blend of factors. These include a weak global economy, industrial ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 26 Feb 2013
According to figures released by Statistics South Africa, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 2.1% quarter on quarter (q/q), on a seasonally adjusted and annualized (saa) basis in the last quarter of 2012 (Q4 2012). This compares to 1.2% (q/q, saa) recorded in the previous quarter....
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SOUTH AFRICA - Special Report 10 Feb 2013
The 52 per cent increase in the minimum wage for farm workers will in all likelihood translate in higher domestic food prices, thereby fueling inflation. On the whole, the pace of price increases has been rising since July 2012, mainly supported by elevated international food prices and high energy ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 24 Jan 2013
According to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the prevailing monetary policy stance is accommodative and suitable in the face of upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook and challenging domestic economic growth prospects....
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SOUTH AFRICA - Quarterly Outlook 11 Jan 2013
The effect of industrial strikes in the mining and transport sectors weighed on the performance of domestic growth. Against this background, economic conditions in South Africa during Q3 2012 exhibited: a high unemployment rate; a lack of confidence; a poor export performance and; a weak manufacturing ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Special Report 14 Dec 2012
After months of widespread speculation and a disciplined silence on the part of Deputy President Motlanthe, he finally today confirmed his intention to challenge President Zuma for the presidency of the African National Congress (ANC) during this year’s ANC elective conference, which will commence proceedings ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 06 Dec 2012
According to official figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the pace of increase in inflation-adjusted gross domestic expenditure slowed during the third quarter of 2012 (Q3 2012), recording a seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly rate (q/q saar) of 3.0%, i.e. 1.9 percentage ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 27 Nov 2012
During the third quarter of 2012 (Q3 2012), growth in inflation adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) moderated significantly to record a seasonally adjusted annualized (s.a.a.) 1.2% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) rate, compared to an upwardly adjusted 3.4% q/q s.a.a. (previously 3.2%) in Q2 2012. The outcome ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 22 Nov 2012
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.0 per cent per year. This was in line with market expectations given the deteriorated global and domestic economic environment. Furthermore, October’s consumer inflation rate increased to record ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 26 Oct 2012
On October 25, 2012, Pravin Gordhan, the South African Minister of Finance, presented to parliament the 2012 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), thereby setting out plans for investing in infrastructure, expanding the social wage, promoting education as well supporting economic competitiveness ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Quarterly Outlook 22 Oct 2012
Socioeconomic strife in South Africa, as suggested by recent violent strikes, has harmed the country’s credit rating. Standard & Poor recently lowered the country’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating from BBB+ to BBB. The prospect of policy uncertainty in the run-up to the Mangaung conference ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 20 Sep 2012
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repo rate at 5.0% per year (See Graph below). The SARB noted that a reduction of the repo rate is currently not required despite tough global and domestic economic conditions....
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SOUTH AFRICA - Special Report 17 Sep 2012
Following a rebound to expansion territory in July 2012, the Kagiso Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell 0.8 index points to 50.2 in August 2012. A reading above (below) 50 indicates expansion (contraction). Weak domestic and global demand for manufactured goods is the main reason for the poor performance ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 11 Sep 2012
Inflation adjusted fixed capital expenditure by general government quickened to a 15.7% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate (q/q, saar) during the second quarter of 2012 (Q2 2012). This is the fastest pace among the components of inflation adjusted fixed capital formation....
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SOUTH AFRICA - Special Report 06 Sep 2012
On the 16th of August 2012, when President Zuma left for the SADC meeting of Heads of States in Mozambique, little did he know that this day would mark the darkest day of his presidency. A few hours after his departure from South Africa his government’s police special unit mowed down 34 workers in cold ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 28 Aug 2012
Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) increased to record a 3.2% quarter on quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted and annualized (s.a.a.) rate, up from 2.7% the previous quarter. Trends reversed as the primary contribution to the positive outcome emerged from the mining sector, which weighed down ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Monthly Report 13 Aug 2012
Domestic economic activity in South Africa did not present a distinct trend during June. Mining production picked up in June while manufacturing output and vehicle sales came out a tad weaker. South Africa’s trade balance remained negative in June on the back of a contraction in both exports and imports....
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 19 Jul 2012
At its meeting on Thursday, July 19, 2012, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s monetary policy committee (MPC) opted to cut the repo rate by 50 basis points. The repo rate had been anchored at 5.5% per year since November 2010 (Graph 1). The MPC observed that the inflation environment had ameliorated ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Quarterly Outlook 09 Jul 2012
The slowdown in domestic expenditure in South Africa during 2012Q1, coupled with signs that inflationary pressures are benign, suggests that a bold policy stance should be adopted by monetary policy authorities. In the same vein, unemployment within the South African economy remains high, with the majority ...
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SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 21 Jun 2012
According to official figures from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), domestic demand in South Africa recorded its lowest quarterly growth during the first quarter of 2012 (Q1 2012) compared to the last two quarters of 2011....
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