With all eyes on next Sunday’s referendum, August was a relatively quiet month on the economics front, but we thought a quick rundown on major developments could be useful. Fiscal ...

Since our last writing on the September 12th referendum outcomes, which made the ratification call, the pro-ratification momentum appears to have stalled. In fact, two polls claim ...

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged today at 7%, simple. The language was very similar to that in the previous statement,

A possible rejection of the recently legislated constitutional amendment package on the September 12th referendum poses the most immediate risk to Turkish political stability, followed ...

Crisis, What Crisis? The clash between the generals and the AKP government during the August 1-4 High Military Tribunal (HMT) meeting has unsettled the markets, raised fears of a ...

Turkey databank...

Consumer prices dropped by a slightly more than expected 0.5% in July (vs. market consensus of some 0.3%), taking the 12-month rate to 7.6%, from 8.4% in June. This is primarily driven ...

The Army is once again the center of a controversy between the secularists and conservatives, even though our base case scenario is another temporary cease-fire. In bad case scenarios,

The Central Bank released its July Inflation Report today. There was no surprise in the Report, in which both inflation forecast (for end-2010) and the rate outlook (through 2011) ...

Turkey’s Ergenekon controversy flared up, again, as an Istanbul court ordered the arrests of 30 active generals. Unless an appellate court reverses the warrants, a new institutional ...

The politicking for the upcoming referendum on September 12th has gotten underway with dirty tricks and name-calling. Judging by the polls, the nays and yes votes are fairly close,

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged today at 7%, simple. The language in the statement remains dovish, in line with our ...

With 11 months left to general elections, election economics might start soon, but may take more subtle forms than showing up in the budget. CHP and MHP announced that both would ...

The Constitutional Court (CC) sided with some of CHP’s objections to the Constitutional Reform Package (CRP), striking down two of the amendments, and sending the rest to the referendum....

Consumer prices dropped by a sharper than expected 0.6% in June, reducing the 12-month rate to 8.4%, from 9.1% a month earlier. Producer prices also eased quite sharply to 7.6% from ...

Turkey is facing a turbulent summer in politics. The appeal against the recently passed Constitutional Reform Package could succeed, possibly triggering early elections. This is the ...

Gross Domestic Product expanded by 11.7% in the first quarter of the year (y/y), broadly in line with the consensus forecast, but slightly lower than ours. The sharp rebound as such ...

PKK attacks ratcheted up, reaching targets in Istanbul, as intelligence agencies warned of more brazen assaults to come. While the war in the Southeast is part of the fabric of Turkish ...

Media chatter on possible early elections intensified during the week, as AKP decided to forego parliament’s summer recess. Various catalysts are mentioned, but a ruling by the Constitutiona...

The Monetary Policy Committee left the new policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged today at 7%, simple. The language in the statement was exactly in line with our expectations,

The outbreak of the tensions with Israel as a result of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) raid on a Gaza aid flotilla and Turkey’s rejection of the UN Security Council Resolution imposing ...

Coming on the heels of the Gaza Incident, Turkey’s rejection of the U.N. Security Council’s Iran resolution reinforced suspicions that the country is parting ways with the West. While ...

Much is going according to the script we set forth in our Quarterly of February 28th. Growth is bouncing back sharply, fiscal performance is improving, the current account deficit ...