It was back to business for the Pact for Mexico after it was re-launched just under two weeks ago, but as we predicted it was by no means business as usual. Even in the unlikely event some signatories to the accord may have harbored illusions they might once again fast-track legislation, a series of ...

Last week’s economic news included a disappointing report on Gross Domestic Product, showing that Mexico’s economy grew a mere 0.8% year on year during the first quarter of 2013. Industrial production was squeezed by the effect of an early Holy Week vacation period almost totally confined to March ...

Minister of Finance Luis Videgaray made public last Wednesday a proposal designed to encourage banks to issue more credit to more people and at lower rates of interest. The plan was drawn up in the context of the multi-party Pact for Mexico as a way to contribute to economic growth, given that banks ...

The Pact for Mexico is officially off life-support, but it is not likely to regain the political muscle and powers of expediency it wielded before its recent brush with death. On Tuesday, President Enrique Peña Nieto and leaders of political parties reaffirmed their commitment to the pact after signing ...

The economy is emitting mixed signals: some sectors are showing strong momentum, while others are slowing even more. April indicators offer little hope of significant recovery in H2. We do expect late-year expansion – but more slowly than the government has projected. Private consumption remains the ...

This past week the Pact for Mexico was put to a rough test. After President Enrique Peña Nieto initially miscalculated the importance of opposition allegations that government officials were planning to use public funds to sway voters in this summer’s local elections, he was forced to backtrack. Faced ...

Last week’s economic news out of Mexico was mostly downbeat. Overall economic activity during the month of February grew a mere 0.4% year on year, according to the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE), a significant drop from January’s 3.4% expansion and the weakest result in more than three years. The main source ...

The work of Congress got off to a very promising start after the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto took office in December, and the Pact for Mexico began quickly shepherding constitutional reforms through Congress. But the days of fast streamlined passage of bills have given way to mounting ...

In recent weeks, the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has put forward a proposal to rewrite the law on the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) in such a way as to harmonize the formulas used for calculating employee wages and benefits for purposes both of determining social security ...

Last week officials reported that the 12-month rate of inflation came in at 4.25% for March, 70 basis points above February’s reading of 3.55%. The headline rate for March was roughly in line with GEA’s estimate of 4.18%. It is probable that 12-month inflation will continue to remain above the 4% target ...

Last Wednesday, April 10, the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto offered its first report on criminal violence. The highlight of the report was data on the number of murders classified as related to the activities of criminal organizations in Mexico: 4,249 such killings took place during ...

Following months in which major pieces of legislation emanating from the Pact for Mexico sped through Congress with unprecedented celerity, last week there were signs that the process may be shifting gears. After sailing through the Chamber of Deputies, the telecommunications reform package hit a snag ...

The National Statistics Office (Inegi) recently published new readings of labor productivity and unit labor costs in Mexico. These indicators fundamentally track average labor productivity, and average labor costs. Data was presented for each quarter dating back to the beginning of 2005 and extending ...

President Enrique Peña Nieto has enjoyed a good first hundred days. The Mexican economy has prevailed over a difficult international environment, and, though slowing, is sailing through the tempest. The new administration has begun with sound macroeconomic numbers, and a resolve to pursue the reforms ...

Although the most recent information released so far in March shows the Mexican economy is continuing to slow, this weakening has not been pronounced, and it does not require a downward revision to the GDP forecasts for the remainder of the year of our previous report. The major driver of Mexican economic ...

As he concluded his first 100 days in office, President Enrique Peña’s approval ratings are in positive territory, but not by as much as one might have guessed, considering the extent of praise heaped on him by major news media sources (including a number from outside Mexico), prominent business leaders ...

The tone of economic news was set last Monday, when President Enrique Peña Nieto presented a proposal to overhaul the nation’s telecommunications sector. The bill, which has the backing of signatories to the Pact for Mexico including all the major parties, was widely praised, and sailed through a key ...

With all the pomp we are coming to expect from the launch of major Pact of Mexico reform initiatives, early last week President Enrique Peña Nieto, accompanied by the leaders of the country’s four largest political parties, unveiled an initiative that would rewrite many of the rules governing telecommunication...

The administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto managed to set the groundwork for a highly ambitious reform agenda during his very first days in office, getting all the major parties to sign on to his Pact for Mexico. The ease with which he won ratification of a constitutional reform and sidelined ...

The most important development last week on the economic news front was Friday’s announcement by Banco de México’s board of directors that they were lowering the reference interbank lending rate to 4%. The rate cut was exactly in line with what we at GEA had estimated in our February 25 issue of “Weekly ...

Last week saw the release of positive labor market data. Manufacturing payrolls grew 2.9% at an annual rate in December, and an accumulated 2.2% for full-year 2012. The component that contributed the most to that expansion is the production of transportation equipment, which grew 11.6% over the past ...

Coming just one day after Mexico enacted a constitutional reform on public education that she had sworn to oppose, the arrest of teachers’ union “President for Life” Elba Ester Gordillo sent a clear message to those who might seek to frustrate the government’s new policies. The administration of President ...

The leader of the Teacher´s Union (SNTE), Elba Esther Gordillo, was arrested last night on charges of money laundering that could reach more than US$200 million. The detention of “La Maestra”, the perennial boss of the education union, is the last blow of a series of political actions taken by President ...

The information published over the past month suggests that there has been a shift in the balance of risks that monetary policy must address. It looks less likely that the slowing of the economy will become more pronounced, so we can expect a limited reversal of inflation’s downtrend. Under such conditions,

The first hint we got that President Enrique Peña would make good on his campaign pledge to take a different tack in matters of security was the extent to which he and his new administration ceased to make crime the central focus of his communications policy. It marked a sharp departure from predecessor ...