According to the latest opinion poll published by IPSOS for April 2013, for the third month in a row, President Martinelli has increased in popularity, gaining momentum, with a 14 percentage point jump during the period, reaching his highest mark in over a year. These results seem to benefit the perspectives ...

Though domestic demand will contribute less to growth in 2013-2015, as public investment tapers off, significant private investment in mining, energy, tourism and housing could cushion the impact. The rapid expansion of 2011 continued in 2012, with real GDP rising by 10.7%, stoked by robust performance ...

Mining and construction were instrumental in sustaining GDP growth at 10.7% in 2012, from 10.8% in 2011. Mining expanded 30% last year, and construction 29.3%, followed by public utilities (up 11.7%), transportation and communication (up 11.2%), hotels and restaurants (a proxy for tourism) and financial ...

President Ricardo Martinelli’s popularity has dipped another 3 percentage points since December, to 24%. January was the fourth month out of five that his popularity declined, falling from 35% a year ago. Likely the president is being dogged by public disapproval over his handling of top national issues: ...

After expanding 10.6% in 2011, real GDP growth trend continue in 2012. By Q3 growth was vigorous, at 10.7% y/y. A fast pace in Q4 leads us to estimate real 2012 GDP growth at 11.0%. We consider the outlook for 2012-2014 positive, with a projected real GDP CAGR of 8.5%. The public sector investment ...

President Ricardo Martinelli might well try to change the Constitution, in order to stand for another term. But he’d have lots of image-polishing to do, if he wanted to compete in the May 2014 presidential election, since his popularity took a hit after the October anti-privatization protests in Colon....

The violent protests against President Ricardo Martinelli’s effort to sell off Canal Free Zone land, and Congress’ hasty repeal of the enabling law, are a watershed in this president’s volatile administration. We think Martinelli’s reelection chances, and those of his party, have been considerably hindered....

Services exports will continue to stoke demand in 2012-2013, and rising private consumption will drive GDP expansion. With government investment and Panama Canal expansion already in advanced stages of execution, their influence on demand will gradually fade. Rapid expansion has continued in Q2, with ...

The nonchalant attitude of bankers and analysts to the vulnerability of the banking sector before possible renewed global financial turmoil is due to the rapid return of capital to Panama after 2009. Authorities ought to study, and prepare for, a longer crisis that could hit the Panamanian economy harder....

President Ricardo Martinelli will be forced to navigate tough terrain in the run-up to the 2014 elections as his stagnant poll ratings indicate. Although some analysts suggest his Cambio Democratico (CD) party seems well positioned to compete against a divided opposition, the president himself is experiencing ...

Economic prospects continue strong for 2012-2014, with projected real GDP CAGR of 6.7%, after a 10.6% expansion of 2011. We expect consumption to jump by 8.2% this year – after last year’s 10.7% – driven by high employment, and increases in income, domestic credit and shopping tourism. Sustained growth ...

Panama’s new law governing the controversial Fondo de Ahorro de Panama (FAP), or Sovereign Wealth Fund, contains two ingredients that will sour the meal. First, it arranges for the proceeds from the remaining government shares in privatized enterprises to be funneled directly into the public Treasury,

Although Panama is enjoying a superb economic climate, and efforts should be focused on analyzing growth opportunities, the strident political atmosphere is sucking away all the air. The latest drama featured President Ricardo Martinelli publicly calling on Vice President Juan Carlos Varela to resign,

The Panamanian economy is as robust as ever, with the economic activity index up nearly 9.3% y/y by February, led by transportation and communications; construction, hotels and restaurants; and mining and trade. But fishing, plunging since 2009, shows no signs of recovering soon. Is Panama building ...

We continue to be optimistic for 2012-2014, and project real GDP CAGR at 6.1%. We expect consumption to jump 7.3% this year, driven by rising employment, income, domestic credit and shopping tourism. But the effect of the massive public investment program, linked to Panama Canal expansion, will quickly ...

Mixed feelings this month in the golden-egg goose of Panamanian economy (although its direct impact on GDP only amounts to 4%): on March 9, the maritime industry, business groups, politicians, and population in general received with satisfaction the announcement that Jorge Luis Quijano was appointed ...

While the economy continues to expand at a double-digit pace, due to strong internal demand (fueled by the expansion of credit), the approval ratings for the president and his Cabinet keep falling. According to the monthly Dichter & Neira poll, President Ricardo Martinelli’s rating sank to 31.3% in ...

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) kept its good performance and accelerated to a 9.5% y/y increase by the end of November. The value of the index is consistent with our projected overall growth for 2011 (10%). Several sectors are increasing at double digits rate, including: mining; construction; ...

After dodging global crisis in 2009, and turning in real GDP growth of 7.6% in 2010, Panama’s economy is on track to expand 10% this year – the best performance in the region, according to a recent ECLAC report. Given the global outlook for 2012-2013, we project a 5% expansion in 2012, and 6.2% in 2013....

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) continued to exhibit the upward trend experienced since the beginning of the year, and expanded by 9.1% y/y. Among the economic activities with worth-mentioning performances are: construction, transportation, storage and telecommunications, trade (domestic ...

This month we focus on three broad topics: the most recent economic and political news; proposed legislation that could influence Panama’s medium-term fiscal performance; and legislation that may influence the country’s productive structure. Economic activity as measured by the Monthly Index of Economic ...

The Panamanian economy is maintaining momentum. After dodging the global crisis, and growing 3.2% in 2009, the economy rebounded, expanding 7.5% in 2010. It’s on track for a 10.7% expansion this year. Factoring in the impacts of an uncertain global outlook for 2012-2013, we project a 5.6% expansion ...

Politics is the topic of the month. President Martinelli ousted Juan Carlos Varela on August 30th from his duties as Minister of Foreign Affairs. No major issue here but for the fact that Varela is also elected Vice-President and leader of the Panameñista Party (PAN) up to yesterday, the most important ...

Early year economic data only confirm that the economy is booming. The economic activity index was up 7.6% in the year to May. Unemployment is low (but job creation stalled) and prices keep rising. The government is pursuing its planned investment program, and the rating agencies continue to be bullish ...

The Panamanian economy just keeps strengthening. After rebounding from the 2009 slowdown, with GDP growth at just 3.2%, the economy grew 7.5% in 2010, and is on track to climb 9% this year. We also consider the outlook for 2011-2013 positive, and project a CAGR of real GDP at 7.1%. On the demand side,