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GULF WEEKLY: Floods batter Gulf, Israel-Iran clash may be over, Microsoft invests $1.5bn in G42, Kuwait has a new PM
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Apr 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Iran and Israel exchanged carefully calibrated attacks and have hopefully come to a pause. *Oil prices briefly spiked today on the Israeli attack but settled after more details emerged. *The US vetoed Palestinian UN member...

The limited Iranian strikes at Israel were as expected, the next steps are more uncertain
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 14 Apr 2024 · 1 response

Last night, April 13, Iran launched around 300 drones and missiles toward Israel. These are significant as the first attacks from Iranian territory (and possibly by Iranian forces directly) in nearly a half-century of enmity. Until now, Iran has merely provided support to allies across the region...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises alongside Iran-Israel tensions, Bahrain releases GDP and prisoners, Kuwait in confusion over government formation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Apr 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude hit a six-month high of $92, driven by geopolitics, but the IEA cut its demand forecast. * Countries including Saudi Arabia, Germany and Russia urged Iran not to retaliate against Israel. * Comments by an Irania...

GULF WEEKLY: S&P puts Oman on Positive outlook, opposition maintains majority in Kuwaiti elections, Abu Dhabi records strong Q4 GDP, oil touches $91.
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Apr 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has risen to $91, the highest since October, partial due to regional tensions. * Israeli airstrikes hit the Iranian embassy in Syria and killed Western aid workers in Gaza. * The UAE and Saudi Arabia were the ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi green bond framework, Oman Q4 GDP, Gaza talks in Qatar paused after UN resolution
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UN demanded a Gaza ceasefire but the war continues, and hostage talks in Qatar paused. * Although the US permitted the UN resolution, it passed a budget with aid for Israel's military and none for UNRWA. * GCC banks ...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades Qatar, Dubai merges developers, PIF eyes Saudia, US Gaza resolution vetoed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The US’s draft UN resolution calling for (but not “demanding”) an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by China and Russia. * Ceasefire talks continue in Qatar, with differences over Palestinian prisoners and repopulatin...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco hiked dividends, Saudi Q4 GDP, UAE Q4 fiscal, Dubai PMI surges
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $85 as the IEA’s latest forecast sees the market in deficit this year. * US criticism of Israel intensified as Ramadan began without a ceasefire and with growing famine concerns. * Hamas reduced its demands, t...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, PIF gets more Aramco stock, Qatar surplus vs Kuwait deficit, Egypt devalues currency
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ extended its additional voluntary cuts for at least another quarter until June. * Hopes faded for a Ramadan ceasefire in Gaza, and the Houthis attacks headed up in the Red Sea. * The Saudi PMI rebounded strongly to ...

Webinar Replay: Gulf Countries Regional Outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Mar 2024

What is next for OPEC+ in its 8th year of cuts? Is fiscal policy trending procyclical again? What are the risks to the GCC from regional conflicts? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our "Gulf Countries Regional Outlook" webinar.

Slide Presentation: Gulf Countries Regional Outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Mar 2024

Get insight into what is next for OPEC+ in its 8th year of cuts, whether or not fiscal policy is trending procyclical again, and risks to the GCC from regional conflicts with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Gulf Countries Regional Outlook".

GULF WEEKLY: PIF and Sharjah issue debt, UAE invests $35bn in Egypt, Qatar expands LNG, UAE delisted by FATF
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Mar 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ sources indicated that the current cuts could next week be extended into Q2. * A new Gaza ceasefire proposal is under review as the death toll crosses 30k, including 112 in a single incident this week. * Abu Dhabi i...

QATAR: An upsizing in the massive LNG expansion could drive further rating upgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2024

* The North Field expansion is being upsized by a quarter (16m t/yr of LNG). * A survey of North Field’s western quadrant has boosted estimated reserves by 14%. * The expansion could boost fiscal revenue by around 2% of GDP from 2030. * LNG demand is forecast to grow strongly in the coming dec...

SHARJAH: Sustainable bond goes to market, but questions remain about fiscal performance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 27 Feb 2024

Sharjah is in the market for a 12-year sustainable bond. It held investor meetings today (Tuesday 27th February) and the bond is likely to price on Wednesday. This is its second “sustainable” issuance, which is allocated to a broad range of both green and social spending (the investor's presentat...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF to hike capital deployment, Alat’s first deals, Turkey-ADQ sukuk on hold, Qatar’s Gaza mediation resumes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states addressed the ICJ hearing on Israel’s occupation (requested by the UNGA in 2022). * Hostage release talks mediated by Qatar/US/Egypt are resuming in Paris today. * Inflation in January was higher in Kuwait (3....

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits recorded, Kuwait’s Assembly is dissolved, Egypt plans for Rafah refugees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The new OPEC+ quotas were implemented in Jan (UAE +1% m/m, Saudi flat, Kuwait & Oman -5%). * Egypt is building a compound for refugees as Israel prepares for an assault on Rafah, despite US concerns and mediation efforts; ...

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