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Ukraine receives first US ammo for months
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024

On April 24 the US dispatched the first installment of the new aid package. The aid package passed the US Senate by an overwhelming majority and Biden signed it. Within hours aid was on the way to Ukraine. It comes not a moment too soon for Ukraine. The US had identified the munitions and assets ...

The government submitted the bills on Tax Reform regulation, Congress postponed the analysis of presidential vetoes, and the AGU filed a lawsuit in the STF against the payroll tax relief bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2024

Yesterday, the government submitted a bill to the National Congress that establishes the Tax on Goods and Services—the IBS, whose responsibility is shared between the states, municipalities, and the Federal District; and the Social Contribution on Goods and Services—the CBS, whose responsibility ...

MPC: Back to a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 25 Apr 2024

As expected, the CBRT/MPC kept interest rates unchanged today, leaving the policy rate (one-week repo) at 50%. The statement was also little changed, still speaking of ongoing resilience in domestic demand and upside risks to inflation.

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024

In the past couple of weeks, the USD/RUB fluctuated in a narrow range, influenced by various factors. On the one hand, the current account looked wide enough in 1Q24. On the other hand, the exporters face problems with repatriating export earnings to Russia. In this situation, the authorities dec...

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan solve border dispute
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024

On April 15 Kyrgyzstan gave 208 hectares to Uzbekistan in return for receiving the same amount of territory from Uzbekistan. Since the breakup of the USSR a border dispute simmered. There were Kyrgyz exclaves entirely surrounded by Uzbekistan. The Kyrgyz people in the former exclaves have been re...

Industrial growth moderated in March but remained good enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2024

Rosstat reported that industrial output increased in March by 4.0% y-o-y, which brought the 1Q24 y-o-y tally to 5.6% (y-o-y growth was stronger in February due to a leap year). Seasonally/calendar-adjusted industrial output increased by 0.1% m-o-m. The mining segment grew y-o-y by 0.4% and 1.1% i...

Ukraine pressures citizens abroad to come home to fight
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2024

On April 23 Kyiv ended consular services for military aged men (18-60) who are outside the country. The only exemption is for a travel document to allow a men to come back to Ukraine. This comes after Ukraine changed the law to allow more men to be drafted.As Ukrainian men abroad cannot renew vit...

The government is expected to submit the bills on Tax Reform regulation today, and Congress will analyze presidential vetoes today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2024

Today, the government will likely submit a bill to the National Congress with the regulation of Tax Reform. According to the Extraordinary Secretary of the Ministry of Finance for Tax Reform, Bernard Appy, the regulation of tax reform will be made in two complementary bills and an ordinary bill. ...

MNB base rate reduced by 50bps today, in line with broad-based consensus expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2024

The base rate went down to 7.75% at today's regular rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council. The monthly speed of the cut was thus reduced from March's 75bps and February's 100bps. Analyst widely expected this outcome; it was our prediction as well in the quarterly forecast report we release...

UK to give its largest aid package to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2024

On April 23 the Prime Minister of the UK announced a USD 671 million package. Rishi Sunak is currently visiting Poland which identifies with Ukraine and hosts more Ukrainian refugees than any other country.The UK is donating USD 3.7 billion to Ukraine this financial year. The latest British aid p...

The CBCH is like a kingfisher in a speedboat
CHILE · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Two consecutive positive surprises in the IMACEC were swiftly followed by an upward revision of the Central Bank’s 2024 GDP growth forecast. Still, the positive result was largely attributable to a milder-than-usual seasonal decline in economic activity, rather than to genuine growth. While macro...

A burst of Russian brutality
UKRAINE · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Ukraine has since mid-March faced unprecedented air raids targeting energy infrastructure, unlike anything seen since the start of the war. In previous years, such as 2022-2023, Russian strategy focused on disrupting energy supplies, to cause nationwide blackouts. But now the focus has shifted to...

The FPE will hold a meeting with Bernard Appy on Tax Reform, the House may vote on the Perse bill today, and the Camex may discuss a surcharge on imported steel
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Today, the Parliamentary Entrepreneurship Front (FPE) will hold a meeting with the Extraordinary Secretary of Tax Reform, Bernard Appy, for a debate on the proposals for Complementary Laws on Tax Reform. The House may vote on the bill that provides for the gradual end of the Emergency Program for...

Economics: Growing Chinese presence in Mexico’s automotive sector sparks concern in the US, posing risks to Mexico under the USMCA
MEXICO · Report · 23 Apr 2024

China's increasing presence in the Mexican automotive sector has drawn considerable expressions of dissatisfaction among US authorities and politicians, as well as from US labor unions, objections that have been exacerbated this key election year. Both President Joe Biden and candidate Donald Tr...

Upcoming webinar - Turkey: Fundamental change or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 23 Apr 2024

What does Erdogan's defeat in the municipal elections mean for Turkey? In response, will he rely on pragmatism or return to heterodoxy? When will the next elections take place? Please join us for our live webinar discussing the implications of Erdogan's political losses for Turkey's macroeconomic...