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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Industrial growth moderated in March but remained good enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2024

Rosstat reported that industrial output increased in March by 4.0% y-o-y, which brought the 1Q24 y-o-y tally to 5.6% (y-o-y growth was stronger in February due to a leap year). Seasonally/calendar-adjusted industrial output increased by 0.1% m-o-m. The mining segment grew y-o-y by 0.4% and 1.1% i...

Ukraine pressures citizens abroad to come home to fight
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2024

On April 23 Kyiv ended consular services for military aged men (18-60) who are outside the country. The only exemption is for a travel document to allow a men to come back to Ukraine. This comes after Ukraine changed the law to allow more men to be drafted.As Ukrainian men abroad cannot renew vit...

The government is expected to submit the bills on Tax Reform regulation today, and Congress will analyze presidential vetoes today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2024

Today, the government will likely submit a bill to the National Congress with the regulation of Tax Reform. According to the Extraordinary Secretary of the Ministry of Finance for Tax Reform, Bernard Appy, the regulation of tax reform will be made in two complementary bills and an ordinary bill. ...

MNB base rate reduced by 50bps today, in line with broad-based consensus expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2024

The base rate went down to 7.75% at today's regular rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council. The monthly speed of the cut was thus reduced from March's 75bps and February's 100bps. Analyst widely expected this outcome; it was our prediction as well in the quarterly forecast report we release...

UK to give its largest aid package to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2024

On April 23 the Prime Minister of the UK announced a USD 671 million package. Rishi Sunak is currently visiting Poland which identifies with Ukraine and hosts more Ukrainian refugees than any other country.The UK is donating USD 3.7 billion to Ukraine this financial year. The latest British aid p...

The CBCH is like a kingfisher in a speedboat
CHILE · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Two consecutive positive surprises in the IMACEC were swiftly followed by an upward revision of the Central Bank’s 2024 GDP growth forecast. Still, the positive result was largely attributable to a milder-than-usual seasonal decline in economic activity, rather than to genuine growth. While macro...

A burst of Russian brutality
UKRAINE · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Ukraine has since mid-March faced unprecedented air raids targeting energy infrastructure, unlike anything seen since the start of the war. In previous years, such as 2022-2023, Russian strategy focused on disrupting energy supplies, to cause nationwide blackouts. But now the focus has shifted to...

The FPE will hold a meeting with Bernard Appy on Tax Reform, the House may vote on the Perse bill today, and the Camex may discuss a surcharge on imported steel
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Today, the Parliamentary Entrepreneurship Front (FPE) will hold a meeting with the Extraordinary Secretary of Tax Reform, Bernard Appy, for a debate on the proposals for Complementary Laws on Tax Reform. The House may vote on the bill that provides for the gradual end of the Emergency Program for...

Economics: Growing Chinese presence in Mexico’s automotive sector sparks concern in the US, posing risks to Mexico under the USMCA
MEXICO · Report · 23 Apr 2024

China's increasing presence in the Mexican automotive sector has drawn considerable expressions of dissatisfaction among US authorities and politicians, as well as from US labor unions, objections that have been exacerbated this key election year. Both President Joe Biden and candidate Donald Tr...

Upcoming webinar - Turkey: Fundamental change or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 23 Apr 2024

What does Erdogan's defeat in the municipal elections mean for Turkey? In response, will he rely on pragmatism or return to heterodoxy? When will the next elections take place? Please join us for our live webinar discussing the implications of Erdogan's political losses for Turkey's macroeconomic...

Business and consumer expectations mixed for the first quarter of 2024
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Abstracting from the results of the BSP surveys of both business and consumer respondents, Q1 2024 is likely to sustain positive economic growth that may not necessarily approximate the official target of 6-7% at least for Q1 2024 due to the dominant downside risks to economic growth including th...

Politics: A sweeping scandal involving the Judiciary and the Executive tarnishes the entire system
MEXICO · Report · 22 Apr 2024

The Supreme Court announced on April 12 that it had ordered the Council of the Federal Judiciary to launch an investigation into an anonymous complaint of widespread acts of corruption by officials of the Judicial Branch during Arturo Zaldívar's time as Chief Justice of the Court (January 2019 to...

The Lula government's "outdated software" and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2024

The government announced a measure focused on credit and is expected to submit the Tax Reform regulations to Congress. The House may vote on a new Perse. Congress analyzes presidential vetoes. This week's Talking Points: * The Lula government's "outdated software".  * A feasibl...

When a Risk Becomes (Almost) Certainty
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2024

In the statement following its last meeting, the COPOM changed its forward guidance, conditional on confirmation of its baseline scenario, to only one more cut of 50 basis points at the meeting in May, without any indications regarding subsequent meetings. Back then, in the minutes of that meetin...

Lula launches the Believe Credit Program, the government should finally submit the bills that regulate Tax Reform, and the House may vote on the bill on the Perse program
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2024

President Lula launches the new government program for the credit area today, the Believe Program (Programa Acredite). There will be lines of credit for individual microentrepreneurs and microenterprises. The government should finally submit the bills that regulate Tax Reform to the National Cong...

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