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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Brighter Prospects for 2016
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Dec 2015

As the year comes to a close, we take stock of the main trends of 2015, and make predictions for 2016. At the beginning of 2015, the Indonesian landscape was mired in major political uncertainty, with the presidential election leaving the new government in a weak position, and dealing with a c...

Turning Point?
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Dec 2015

New national accounts data brings encouraging news: though below consensus expectations, growth in Q3 was higher than in Q2. This is at least anecdotal evidence of a possible turnaround, especially if the trend persists. Growth was reported at 4.73% in Q3, up from 4.67% in Q2, though still dow...

Rebound in Capital Flows
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Oct 2015

In the past few weeks, we have seen a return of capital inflows into the Indonesian financial system, both in the stock and the bond market. Such a return led to a significant strengthening of the Indonesian currency. Aside from the impact of lowering import prices, the strengthening of the curre...

Reading the Anecdotal Evidence
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Sep 2015

Making a good judgment about the Indonesian economy based only on the official statistics is sometimes inadequate. At the same time, using only anecdotal evidence to measure the direction of the economy can also be misleading. However, using some anecdotal evidence to enrich the official data may...

Reversing the Trend
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

Indonesian authorities have been confronted with two major challenges: the slowdown in the economy and the turmoil in the global financial markets. The turmoil in the global market has put downward pressure both on the currency exchange rate as well as the stock exchange. The slowdown of the e...

Annual Ramadan Pilgrimage
INDONESIA · Report · 21 Jul 2015

Executive Summary In June and July, the Indonesian economy started to move higher, driven principally by the season of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. At the same time, the more extensive implementation of government spending now taking place can also drive the economy faster. Ramadan has...

Signs of Stagflation?
INDONESIA · Report · 26 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Similar to April, May 2015 was considered another critical month for the trade balance for Indonesia. In the previous years, the period starting from the third month prior to Ramadan was considered critical because of the spike in imports. However this year the months of Apri...

Growth Rebound in the Cards
INDONESIA · Report · 28 May 2015

Executive Summary Growth was even lower than expected in Q1, dropping below 5% for the first time in years -- though, interestingly, business confidence is holding steady. So we may see a bit of recovery in H2. Annualized growth in Q1 was 4.71%, vs. 5.01% in Q4 2014. Low Q1 growth was expec...

A Semblance of Stability
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary A semblance of stability has been felt by the Indonesian business community since the rupiah strengthened a bit against the US dollar, at least narrowing the currency losses seen during the first quarter of the year. However, at the same time, business executives have also fe...

Tug of War Over Jakarta’s Budget
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Jakarta, as the capital of the country, carries significant weight in the economic and political development of the country. At a time when the provincial governments are contributing a substantial amount of the country’s economic growth, developments in Jakarta are a crucial...

Confidence in the Midst of an Airline Disaster
INDONESIA · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Three days before the new year 2015, an Indonesian-Malaysian aircraft lost contact halfway between Surabaya, Indonesia’s second largest city, and Singapore, a two-hour flight. AirAsia is a low-cost airline owned by Tony Fernandes, a successful Malaysian airline businessman wh...

Promising Prospects
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Dec 2014

Executive Summary The short-term volatility in the currency and capital markets notwithstanding, Jokowi’s presidency has created encouraging prospects for Indonesia. The president’s bold November 18th move to cut the oil subsidy has created a large fiscal space that will allow the government t...

Courageous First Steps
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The Jokowi government began in earnest in November, with impromptu presidential visits to several places, beginning with the headquarters of the Indonesian Investment Board. That sent a strong signal that he wants to streamline the investment approval process, by introducing ...

Indonesia : Jokowi’s Bold Move
INDONESIA · In Brief · 19 Nov 2014

In less than a month in office, Indonesian new President made a bold move by raising the domestic fuel price. The price of subsidized gasoline was increased from Rp. 6,500 per liter to Rp. 8,500. The price of subsidized diesel oil was also increased from Rp. 5,500 to Rp. 7,500 per liter. With tha...

A New Hope
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Oct 2014

Executive Summary October 20th was a milestone date for Indonesia. For the first time in the country’s history, a regional leader was inaugurated as president. Joko “Jokowi” Widodo served two terms as mayor in Solo, Central Java (though the second term was unfinished, due to his move to Jakart...

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