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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: The outlook remains mixed judging by the latest data, with continuing challenges in manufacturing and domestic goods consumption
MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2024

Indicators released over the past month once again showed growth, but the latest GDP data confirmed that although the Mexican economy continues to expand, it decelerated in the last quarter and especially during December. Moreover, three quarters of manufacturing branches are contracting, and eve...

Politics: Widely divergent poll numbers and a potential hidden vote complicate the picture as some surveys show Xóchitl rebounding
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2024

Since September, when the de facto presidential campaigns of Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez began, many of the country’s polling firms have showed the Morena nominee way out front. The Oraculus website’s average reading of major polls has detected virtually no movement in the voting intenti...

Economics: Reform proposals will not pass in the current Congress but form the key piece of a longer-term political plan by AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2024

As analyzed in last week's Political Outlook, on February 5 President López Obrador unveiled a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reform proposals, ostensibly with the intention of having them discussed and approved in Congress. But as there is no possibility of these initiatives being pa...

Economics: Recent economic data anticipate early 2024 slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2024

Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures and recently released November and December economic activity indicators point to a slowdown in the early months of 2024 in the face of the contraction trend in manufacturing and the high comparison posed by a rally in construction activity that we estimate ...

Politics: 20 reform proposals foreshadow less democracy and more years of AMLO rule
MEXICO · Report · 12 Feb 2024

On February 5, the anniversary of Mexico’s Constitution, which emerged from the Mexican Revolution, President López Obrador sent Congress a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reforms he says are aimed at rewriting articles introduced during the neoliberal or “neoporfirist” period. This ti...

Politics: More evidence of how organized crime, politicians, business enterprises and officials interact in Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024

In this issue we continue the analysis we began last week in these pages with Part One of our analysis of violence, elections and political control, addressing the interrelated questions of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the...

Economics: Immediate 2023 public finance results confirm there were no major departures from trends of the previous year
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024

The gradual but systematic deterioration of public finances continued to unfold over the course of 2023. The results came as no surprise, as the 2023 numbers had been anticipated throughout most of 2023. However, the way some components are trending is troubling: increasingly negative public bala...

Politics: Violence, elections and political control—Part One
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In this issue of the Political Outlook we take a look at the interrelated questions of the presence of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the part of such criminal gangs. The bottom line is that the expansion of organized crime...

Economics: Data in recent weeks show internal demand leading strong growth, core prices fanning inflation and non-automotive manufacturing falling
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

January delivered further evidence that the Mexican economy performed better in 2023 than had been expected thanks in large part to a resurgence of the construction sector. This sector has benefitted from the combination of massive government outlays for its signature infrastructure projects and ...

Economics: Housing resurgence is limited by credit scarcity while GFI in construction of trade-related capacity dominates the private component
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Much of the dynamism that we have been witnessing in the construction sector is explained by the latest rise in spending on public works, especially with what the current administration is pumping into its flagship railroad projects, as we noted in our January 8 Outlook. However, in recent months...

Politics: Xóchitl gains traction as quiet interlude begins, MC nominee stumbles out of the gate as AMLO fences Claudia in
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2024

Now that we have reached the end of the period of campaigning for presidential nominations, it is worth assessing where the race stands. Following months of missteps, the opposition front’s Xóchitl Gálvez hit her stride with a series of successful events just as this period was drawing to a close...

Economics: Wage hikes and pending and potential labor reforms heighten labor cost pressures following a slight 4Q inflation rebound
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Consumer inflation concluded December 2023 with a slight rebound above levels of the previous few months, but at 4.66% it was considerably lower than the 7.82% year-end rate of 2022. Core inflation (5.09%) continued to outpace headline inflation, pressured higher by core services (5.33%), and foo...

Politics: A de-legitimizing loss of civility, and new corruption scandals within the 4T and the opposition threaten citizen participation
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jan 2024

The behaviors and practices of members of the political class from all parties in Mexico show with increasing brazenness what little regard they have for rules. The privileges that government officials and party leaders have historically enjoyed plus the widespread corruption under the previous p...

Economics: Continuing tear in construction is a major driver of GDP growth, but the data is both uneven and demanding of further review
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jan 2024

Mexico’s economy is currently estimated by analysts to have grown 3.2% in 2023, a result in line with what the Ministry of Finance projected in the general economic assumptions text (CGPE) and significantly higher than the roughly 1.0% increase the market consensus anticipated at the beginning of...

Politics: Opposition in need of new strategies as support slips despite widespread discontent with the incumbents
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jan 2024

As we continue our analysis of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters, we see that while support for Claudia Sheinbaum remained largely unchanged at slightly above 50%, she grew her lead over Xóchitl Gálvez, for whom support fell by 4pp. The gap separating them widened from 19 to ...

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