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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: New stimulus measures for export-oriented companies could fall short of the need to more fully exploit nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 24 Oct 2023

The Federal Government published a decree on October 11 awarding fiscal stimulus to 10 key sectors of the country’s export industry, consisting of immediate deductions of investments in new fixed assets during the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. This measure seeks to promote investment and...

Politics: Morena and the opposition alliance face difficult choices as they pick gubernatorial candidates
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2023

The election next June will be the largest Mexico has ever experienced with the more than 3,500 offices to be filled, including President and both chamber of Congress. Polls currently show the incumbent Morena party is favored to retain the presidency, and while its goal of achieving a two-thirds...

Economics: Inflation is a major concern, with core prices sticky, consumption demand and oil prices strong, and the public deficit continuing to swell
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2023

One of the main concerns looming over the economy in the final stretch of 2023 and throughout 2024 is the direction of inflation, with its implications for monetary policy, interest rates, exchange rates and, ultimately, economic growth. While continuing to recede, core inflation’s recent traject...

Politics: Bereft of a coherent foreign policy, Mexico stumbles on the world stage and reverts to policy stances of the 1970s
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2023

The disdain that President López Obrador has displayed toward the issues involved in Mexico's relationship with the world is summarized in his frequently used phrase to justify his indifference on the subject: "The best foreign policy is domestic policy." The consequences of the absence of any pl...

Economics: Soaring automotive shipments contrast with softening of other manufactured exports, while the super peso stoked demand for imports
MEXICO · Report · 10 Oct 2023

Mexico’s strong export performance through August of this year is primarily explained by the extent to which automotive exports continue to grow in response to robust US private consumption, especially the extent to which consumers are snapping up cars and trucks following a period of major short...

Politics: An innovative, quantitative approximation of the number of people each cartel employs in Mexico, rate of turnover/recruitment
MEXICO · Report · 10 Oct 2023

An article by analysts Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Gian Maria Campedelli and the late Alejandro Hope that appears in the magazine Science assesses the scale and dimensions of Mexican cartels. While conducting a sophisticated analysis that estimates the cartels' population size—roughly 175,000 people wo...

Politics: The most recent GEA-ISA survey shows candidate Claudia Sheinbaum with an initial advantage
MEXICO · Report · 02 Oct 2023

The most recent GEA-ISA quarterly survey of registered voters shows presidential approval bounced 5 percentage points to 62%, along with a significant shift in the reasons respondents cited for commending AMLO’s performance away from general empathic associations to tangible factors arising from ...

Economics: Mixed 2024 economic outlook as trade/FDI opening is combined with heightened risk on the public finance front
MEXICO · Report · 02 Oct 2023

Mexico's economic outlook includes some striking contrasts and uncertainties for year-end 2023, and especially for 2024. On one hand, we expect a certain degree of economic growth although at a slowing pace, and for macro-financial variables (interest rates, exchange rate) to remain stable, with ...

Politics: Marcelo Ebrard and the MC party are left charting out increasingly complicated decision trees
MEXICO · Report · 26 Sep 2023

After he lost the final opinion polls that formed the basis of the Morena presidential nomination process, Marcelo Ebrard stated there was no longer any place for him in the governing party and that he, nevertheless, would be on the ballot in 2024. But within a matter of days, it became clear tha...

Economics: Growth in aggregate demand in the 2nd quarter concentrated in total investment and private consumption
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2023

The aggregate supply and demand figures for the second quarter, released on September 18, showed very significant gross fixed capital formation growth in construction and in the imported machinery and equipment component, as well as in private consumption. Within private consumption, very high gr...

Economics: The 2024 budget proposal offers the same administration formula, although holes are increasingly apparent in the gov’t approach
MEXICO · Report · 19 Sep 2023

Earlier this month, as President López Obrador approaches his final year in office, his administration sent Congress a 2024 budget package that was very much true to the tenor of its four previous iterations. It served up the same combination of austerity in many areas of public administration an...

Politics: The administration’s political use of public spending and its implications both today and for the next government
MEXICO · Report · 18 Sep 2023

The structure and distribution of the 2024 expenditure budget confirms a longstanding tradition of governments in Mexico and elsewhere of spending heavily for electoral purposes in the run-up to a major election year. The President's political priorities are perfectly expressed in the distributi...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and an acceleration of spending ahead of 2024 elections are likely to further squeeze public finances
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2023

Public finances have deteriorated in the last three months. With the presidential elections less than a year away, the administration has been stepping up outlays for social programs and investment in its flagship projects at the same time as there have been public revenue shortfalls as income fr...

Politics: Virtual presidential nominees face multiple challenges as Morena nomination process hits a major speed bump
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2023

The unity pact that all the 4T presidential hopefuls signed on to at the outset of the Morena candidate selection process didn’t survive the irregularities that Marcelo Ebrard called out. It is not yet clear what the former foreign affairs minister’s next move will be, but he has done nothing to ...

Politics: Criminal violence continues largely unabated, at a heavy cost to individuals and entire swaths of the economy
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023

Although the number of intentional homicides has been falling somewhat in recent years (from a peak daily average of 100.7 in 2020 to 94.8 at last count), the tally remains shockingly high. In fact, in the four and a half years since President López Obrador took office, and facing a little over a...

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