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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Criminal violence continues largely unabated, at a heavy cost to individuals and entire swaths of the economy
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023

Although the number of intentional homicides has been falling somewhat in recent years (from a peak daily average of 100.7 in 2020 to 94.8 at last count), the tally remains shockingly high. In fact, in the four and a half years since President López Obrador took office, and facing a little over a...

Economics: GDP growth remained solid through 2Q, with robust secondary sector and GFI data
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023

GDP growth remained solid through the first half of the year even as the second quarter expansion proved to be marginally less pronounced than analysts had projected and Inegi had calculated in the preliminary estimates it released at the beginning of August. First quarter GDP was also revised ma...

Politics: The Paredes, Gálvez contest for the opposition candidacy has strengthened the alliance; the MC remains on the sidelines to date
MEXICO · Report · 29 Aug 2023

With just over a week to go, the field competing to become the opposition presidential candidate has been narrowed down to a politician of great experience and trajectory who represents the best of the party tradition (the PRI’s Beatriz Paredes), and a fresh and charismatic figure who unites and ...

Economics: Fruitless consultations give way to US and Canada's convening a trade panel over Mexico's restrictions on imports of GM corn
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2023

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) escalated on August 17 its objections to Mexico's curbs on genetically modified corn imports by requesting a dispute arbitration panel to address its objections to Mexico's curbs on imports of genetically modified (GM) white corn for the...

Economics: Unabated tide of remittance inflows stokes consumption but super peso and inflation take their toll
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023

One of the sources of income that explains the dynamism of consumption in Mexico at the end of 2022 and through the first half of 2023 is the level of remittances that have been flowing in from the United States, which as of June registered an 8.3% annual increase in US currency to total 5.57 bil...

Politics: Presidential nomination battles heat up as it becomes less clear who the future candidates will be just two weeks out
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023

Claudia Sheinbaum remains the favorite for the Morena presidential nomination and Xóchitl Gálvez for the opposition Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) with just over two weeks to go before the two coalitions that will face off against each other next year choose their respective standard bearers. Howev...

Economics: Poverty declines, incomes rise, yet major social deprivations prevail
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2023

The results of the 2002 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) were released at the end of July, while this past week the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policies (Coneval) released the poverty figures for the same year, using data from the same survey....

Politics: Sharp debate erupts on the character of free school textbooks, reflecting the political divide
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2023

A major controversy has erupted in Mexico concerning the free textbooks for primary and high school students. The debate is taking place on several levels. On the legal front, there are questions as to whether educators, parents, teachers, were consulted, as mandated by the General Law on Educati...

Economics: Recurring incidents at installations, ratings downgrades underscore the continuing deterioration of Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2023

Pemex has been the subject of considerable attention from national and international analysts and the news media due to a series of accidents and other events at its facilities and to decisions by Fitch to downgrade Pemex's debt and Moody's to lower its outlook on the company’s securities from st...

Politics: The current administration’s overhaul of social policy has left many of the poorest households without coverage
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Everything indicates that economic growth rather than different social policy programs has been the main factor explaining poverty reduction in Mexican society over the past seven decades. The 6% average GDP growth of the "Mexican Miracle’s" period of stabilizing development from the 50s to the 7...

Economics: Data released in July reaffirm the internal market as the main growth catalyst as trade continues to subside
MEXICO · Report · 01 Aug 2023

While the expansion of industrial activity actually accelerated above its average pace year to date in May, manufacturing abdicated its role as the main driver as it almost stalled. But the difference was more than offset by much stronger numbers from construction (thanks to civil engineering wor...

Politics: The complicated relationship between violence, organized crime, elections and the US
MEXICO · Report · 31 Jul 2023

Four and a half years into President López Obrador’s administration criminal violence endures as the toughest challenge facing the country. Even before AMLO took office that view was shared by well over 40% of registered voters, a perception that faded throughout the Covid-19 pandemic as people w...

Economics: Private consumption of services and imports is high as domestic goods continue to take a beating from forex effect
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jul 2023

Last week Inegi released its preliminary private consumption index (IOCP) for May and June and its retail and wholesale sales indexes for May, while the national retail industry association Antad published its store sales results for June the previous week. Those reports show that private consump...

Politics: Xóchitl vaults into the lead for the opposition nomination but major obstacles lurk ahead
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2023

As we have noted in recent weeks, Xóchitl Gálvez’s decision to jump into the race to become the opposition presidential candidate has shaken up a contest that had already started to evolve thanks to the efforts of civil society groups and others that brought hundreds of thousands into the streets...

Economics: New points of friction in US-Mexico trade, a potential threat to FDI and nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jul 2023

Mexican exports to the US have been experiencing a slowdown in recent months that has been most concentrated in their non-automotive manufacturing component even as automotive exports have been highly volatile, delivering very high growth rates in some months of 2022 and early 2023 after dropping...

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