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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: What was the President thinking?
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2016

Why did President Peña Nieto decide on such a huge and ultimately costly political gamble in hastily rolling out the diplomatic carpet for his high profile meeting with Donald Trump last week? The political blowback has been searing, with an initial opinion survey showing that over 80% of Mexican...

Economy Extends Stalling Pattern, while Parties Mull Congressional Priorities
MEXICO · Report · 30 Aug 2016

The economic indicators published in August deepened the predominately negative readings of recent months, as continuing signs of weakness extended to the consumption sector of the Mexican economy. Just this past week the revised Gross Domestic Product results for the second quarter showed a seas...

Economics: Public Finance Looking Vulnerable
MEXICO · Report · 25 Aug 2016

Over the course of 2016 the Ministry of Finance has exerted effective controls over public finance. As we analyzed in the June 27 issue of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy, the government decided to lower spending for 2016 by 132.4 billion pesos, with austerity measures including the elimination of ...

Politics: New TRIFE Key to Electoral Legitimacy
MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2016

Although Mexico has made great strides in building a democratic electoral system over the past 40 years, problems remain – for example, extensive use of illegal campaign funding, ineffective regulations on media access, widespread vote buying – that undercut the legitimacy of the elections and pr...

Economics: Making Sense of the Trump Phenomenon
MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2016

One of the factors injecting the greatest sense of uncertainty into the decisions of economic agents in Mexico (producers, investors and consumers) is the election campaign that is currently taking place in the United States. The threats being made by Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, agains...

Politics: Murders Show Institutional Weakness
MEXICO · Report · 16 Aug 2016

In the past month, three mayors and a former mayor have been killed. This is not, unfortunately, a new phenomenon. In the past decade, 86 mayors, former mayors, and municipal or town council members have been assassinated. Equally unfortunate is the fact that this is just the tip of the iceberg, ...

Economics: Pemex, Public Finance Weaken
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2016

Last month, Pemex announced its second quarter of 2016 results. Despite a slight recovery in oil prices during the year and a fall in its tax payments, the company’s financial situation continues to weaken rapidly. The news is not encouraging on almost any level, and the company’s situation h...

Politics: Dark Cloud Envelops Business-Government Ties
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2016

Relations between government and business soured early during the administration of President Enrique Peña after passage of a fiscal reform that raised rates and closed loopholes. Worse yet, business leaders felt that the door had been closed to the sort of dialogue they had been accustomed to. T...

Economic Activity Slows in July; Possible Consequences of a Trump Victory for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 02 Aug 2016

Broad readings of economic activity released last month pointed to a significant slowing even in the services and commercial sector, which has long served as the economy’s main growth driver. The monthly GDP proxy showed the economy growing at a subpar 12-month rate of 1.9% in May as opposed ...

Economics: Confusion over Poverty Statistics
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2016

The National Statistics Institute (Inegi) published on Friday, July 15, the results of its Module of Socio-economic Conditions (MCS) for 2015, the study in which the agency measures information that allows the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (Coneval) to calculate...

Politics: Officials Boxed Into Corner on Reform
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2016

Protests by teachers have led to government negotiations on several levels in the past two weeks. After engaging in talks with the dissident faction of the teachers’ union in an effort to end the crisis posed by the roadblocks hardline anti education-reform protestors are periodically setting up ...

Economics: Weak Industrial Sales Data
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2016

Industrial activity showed only moderate growth in May as production increased a scant 0.4% on a 12-month, seasonally adjusted basis. While both the construction sector (+3.2% year on year) and utilities (+6.3%) experienced very positive results, their contribution was largely offset by yet anot...

Politics: New Party Leaders in a Very Different Context
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2016

The two major political parties that suffered the greatest setbacks in last June’s elections (PRI and PRD) elected new national leaders this past week as they try to reposition themselves. Both parties face a new balance of power following the elections this past June, from which the National Act...

Politics: Murder Rate Rebounds to Peak Levels
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2016

The May report from the National System of Public Security (SNSP) confirmed a murder rate growth trend dating back to the beginning of 2015 and a return to levels of four year ago at the peak of the government’s war on organized crime. Four northern states – Baja California, Chihuahua, Tamauli...

Economics: Effect of Electric Power Rate Hikes
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2016

The Federal Electricity Commission issued a statement this past July 3 announcing that it was raising the electric power rates it charges industrial, commercial and residential customers with high power consumption levels due to the higher prices that the federal electric power utility is paying ...

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