NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...

Economics: Muddled Outlook for Special Zones
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2015

Executive Summary On September 29 the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto sent Congress a draft of a Federal Law to establish Special Economic Zones to promote sustained and balanced economic growth in the regions of the country with the least degree of social development. The factor t...

Politics: Initial Preview of 2016 Elections
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2015

Executive Summary Gubernatorial elections will be held next year in 12 states: nine are currently controlled by the PRI while the governors in the remaining three were elected as part of an alliance between the PAN and the PRD. These contests will occur in a national political context strikingly ...

Economics: Mexico’s TPP Letdown
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2015

Executive Summary Following five years of negotiations (only three in the case of Mexico, which joined the talks in 2012) a basic agreement has been reached to sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership, although many legal details have yet to be finalized. The idea for the treaty arose out of an agreeme...

Politics: Corruption and Independent Candidates
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2015

Since the attempt to re-launch the government around the time of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s third State of the Nation address, politics has settled into some semblance of calm, with the exception of the frictions that have played out between the Mexican government and international human righ...

Economics: Changes in Gasoline Price Regulations
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2015 · 1 response

In its economic package for 2016, the executive branch proposes moving up the liberalization of gas prices to 2016, seeking to transition toward a free-market system for selling gasoline and diesel to the public and ensuring that cap prices begin to move consistently in line with international be...

Politics: Crime Rate Largely Unchanged, but Black Figure Remains High
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2015

Executive Summary Public security and crime is a major issue in Mexican society. The 2015 National Survey on Victimization and Public Safety (ENVIPE) conducted by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) sheds light on crime rates and the types of crimes committed. But the raw numbers don’t tell...

A Sobering Forecast
MEXICO · Report · 01 Oct 2015

The economy continues to show signs of weakness. The leading economic indicator slipped 0.09 points from June to July, to 99.6 points (below the threshold of its long-term trend). With this in mind, we believe GDP growth will be 1.8% in Q3, and 2.0% in Q4. Consumer inflation has remained stubb...

Economics: An Insufficiently Austere Budget
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2015

The Ministry of Finance handed Congress its 2016 budget proposals on Tuesday, September 8. The budget package includes both the revenue and spending bills along with the document containing the general economic assumptions that underpin the budget proposals. The various components of the 2016 pac...

Politics: Peña’s Ratings Tank as Distrust Grows
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2015

As it approaches the midway point in its six-year term of office, the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto faces its lowest approval ratings to date. The economy’s sluggish performance, growing perceptions of official corruption and the public’s sense that conditions of public security ...

Economics: A Pass-through Effect to Come
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2015

The increase in producer prices as tracked by Mexico’s national Producer Price Index (PPI) suggests that the higher costs will eventually translate into a higher rate of consumer inflation. We should note the need to analyze the rise in producer prices from various angles. One of these is rela...

Politics: Government Re-launch Fails to Lift Off
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2015

Hopes that this year’s State of the Nation Report and President Enrique Peña Nieto’s accompanying nationwide address might signal a major change of approach and policies were dashed last week as seemingly self-critical introductory remarks quickly gave way to self-serving and questionable claims ...

Risks Prompt Lower Growth Forecast
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2015

The slowdown of crude output, and loss of momentum in the construction sector, led to weak industrial activity data for June (when it was up just 1.4% y/y), amid general financial uncertainty. Industrial results plunged in Q2, to almost half their Q1 growth rate. The peso has lost more than 25...

Politics: Crime on the Rise in Capital
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

Executive Summary The analyses of public security issues GEA conducts for Weekly Trends: Mexico Politics are generally made of nationwide crime data, but this time we are narrowing our focus to the Federal District because of its economic and political weight, its record in building a successful ...

Economics: New China Model’s Mexico Effect
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

To the already extensive list of negative factors of international origin adversely affecting the Mexican economy over the past ten months (plunging prices for oil and other locally produced commodities, uncertainty regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve’s long awaited interest rate liftoff,...

Politics: Citizenry’s Reality Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2015

The citizenry’s alienation from politics, lack of confidence in parties, and impression that electoral democracy has done little or nothing to improve wellbeing is nothing new or uniquely Mexican, but there has been a special deepening of that crisis of representativeness over the past year. The ...