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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Bad legal news for Martinelli, bad political news for president Varela, good news for the economy
PANAMA · Report · 31 Jan 2018

U.S. District Judge Marcia Cooke declined to accept the writ of habeas corpus submitted by Martinelli´s defense and ratified judge Edwin Torres’ decision to approve Martinelli´s extradition to Panama for illegally monitoring phone calls and other communications of 150 people using a surveillance ...

Consumption slows down and Panama enters the EU blacklist
PANAMA · Report · 27 Dec 2017

Panama´s economy continues to grow with a real GDP expansion of 5.4% in Q3 and 5.6% from January to September. In YTD terms, growth was driven by transportation and communications, construction, financial intermediation and services to business. The bad news was retail trade: following a 6.1% ...

The China connection begins amid anticipated fiscal performance and public-sector budget
PANAMA · Report · 01 Dec 2017

Economic activity, measured by the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, grew 4.4% y/y in September and 5.6% from January to September. External activities such as the Panama Canal, ports, tourism, and airport traffic, as well as construction showed continuous growth, while Colon Free Zone re-expor...

Financial Performance of State-owned Enterprises and the Median Voter
PANAMA · Report · 30 Oct 2017

There are no well-defined criteria that include or exclude State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) in the Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS). Some are included (and therefore have no administrative independence, for example, IDAAN, a water and sewer system management entity), while some are outside the NF...

Trend shift: External sector and investment projects will set the new growth dynamic
PANAMA · Forecast · 02 Oct 2017

GDP expanded 5.4% in Q2 due to lower dynamism in wholesale and retail commerce after an impressive 6.2% growth in Q1. GDP grew 5.8% in H1, which presents a shift from the downward trend that started in 2012 (when the works of the Panama Canal expansion as well as several public investment project...

A failed (and unconstitutional) attempt to modify ACP’s budget: Beyond Barria’s case
PANAMA · Report · 25 Sep 2017

Article 220 of Panama's Political Constitution asserts that The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will present its budget proposal to the Cabinet, which in turn is subject to Congress for its examination, approval, or rejection (Chapter 2, Title 9 of the Panamanian Constitution). This is the basis of ...

Canal Prepares for Greater Global Competition as Panama Prepares for Financial Transparency
PANAMA · Report · 30 Aug 2017

In this report, we review the most recent economic data, and present two positive themes that support our medium-term forecast: initiatives to promote transparency in the financial sector, and several logistics projects in the Canal area Recent data show that service and exports sectors are ex...

Growth is Strong but Uneven; Reforms are Unlikely
PANAMA · Report · 31 Jul 2017

Our medium-term projections of 5.2%-5.4% growth are based on the projected growth of logistics activities linked to the Panama Canal (new transshipment ports, processing plants and roll-on roll-off facilities), on the development of high-income tourist facilities, and on the expansion of the ener...

Growth Picks Up in Q1 Amid Political Uncertainty
PANAMA · Report · 03 Jul 2017

GDP grew 6.2% y/y in Q1 2017 compared to 4.6% in Q1 2016. The three drivers were: 1) double digit growth in Colon Free Zone (CFZ) re-exports; 2) an increase in Panama Canal transits due to last year’s expansion, as well as a surge in ports transshipments; 3) construction, driven by private and pu...

Growth is Robust, But a Pension System Deficit Looms
PANAMA · Report · 31 May 2017

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity grew 7.5% y/y in March, and 6% in Q1. March IMAE growth was its highest since December 2014. There were three main drivers of Q1 growth: transportation, due to an increase in Canal and ports activity; commerce, due to the recovery of Colon Free Zone reexport...

Review of key issues: Economic activity, Canal, and the Pacific Alliance
PANAMA · Report · 05 May 2017

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity expanded 5.5% y/y in February, and 5.2% from January to February, the highest growth since April 2015. We expect real GDP to increase by around 5.3% in Q1 2017. Most indicators showed that the highest early-year growth revolved around Panama Canal expansion,...

Corozal did not materialize… Economy continues its trend
PANAMA · Report · 31 Mar 2017

In 2016, Panama’s GDP grew 4.9%, deaccelerating for a fifth consecutive year. The leading sectors in the economy were: education services (which grew 10.9%); electricity, gas and water supply (10.6%); mining (8.4%); construction (8.3%); and financial intermediation (6.6%). On the other hand, agri...

Under Odebrecht Headlines, Watch for Fiscal Issues
PANAMA · Report · 02 Mar 2017

Preliminary figures for 2016 show that the “adjusted” deficit of the NFPS was 1.5% of nominal GDP, at the ratio approved by the Fiscal Responsibility Law of 2007, as amended in 2012. (The revised deficit figure for 2015 was 2%). But the “true” deficit for 2016 was $1,350 million, or 2.5% of GDP, ...

We forecast lower growth in 2017 than the consensus… but it will be a solid one
PANAMA · Forecast · 01 Feb 2017

With uncertainty surrounding the new U.S. administration’s policy stance on trade and fiscal spending, it is difficult to pinpoint the direction of the global economy. While fiscal stimulus has the potential to boost the U.S. economy in the short term, U.S. President Donald Trump’s well-documente...

The Year of Living Dangerously: Slower growth, higher unemployment…and Odebrecht
PANAMA · Report · 30 Dec 2016

Real GDP growth fell to 4.8% y/y in Q3 compared to its reported 5.2% growth during the previous quarter. We expect 2016 y/y GDP growth rate to be around 5% based on results up to Q3 (4.9%). We see no reason for a rebound in Q4, and indicators continue to suggest a growth rate below the 6% estimat...

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