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Peru: Castillo at the edge
PERU · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

Yesterday was a bad day for President Pedro Castillo and the odds that he is ousted in the next six months are high. For once, Congress approved the third impeachment motion with 73 votes in favor, 32 against and 6 abstentions. Although Congress needs 87 votes to oust him, the opposition believes...

Congress vs. Castillo—who sacks whom?
PERU · Report · 22 Nov 2022

In this report, we try to answer three key questions: What will happen to the presidency of Pedro Castillo? Is the economy transitioning to a new normal growth rate? And when will the Central Bank end its tightening cycle? We argue that the confrontation between President Pedro Castillo and th...

Castillo’s last dance; real GDP slows to 1.5% in H2; BCRP projected to end hiking cycle at 7.5%
PERU · Report · 18 Oct 2022 · 1 response

In this report, we focus on three key topics. First, we discuss the implications for President Pedro Castillo of the decision by the Ministerio Público Fiscalía de la Nación to submit to Congress a constitutional complaint against Castillo for “leading a criminal organization.” Second, we argue t...

Peru: Attorney General submits to Congress a constitutional demand against President Castillo
PERU · In Brief · 11 Oct 2022 · 1 response

A few minutes ago, the Attorney General (AG), Ms. Patricia Benavides, submitted a constitutional demand against President Castillo. Of the seven investigations, the AG has added three, those related to the embezzlement out of public works concessions and the state-owned firm, PetroPerú. The deman...

Peru’s mid-term elections: a major defeat for President Castillo
PERU · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

Today, Peru elected regional and local authorities--Governors and Mayors. This was the first-time voters went back to the ballots since the July 28, 2021, election when President Castillo was elected. From the first exit polls released today at 5pm (new results are due tonight at 10pm Lima time),...

Castillo fights back; wider fiscal and current account deficits; and weaker currency expected in 2023
PERU · Report · 20 Sep 2022 · 1 response

In this forecast report, we discuss President Pedro Castillo’s prospects for political survival. We then move on to our economic forecast, and review our predictions for growth, government finances and the balance of payments. We also discuss the recovery plan launched by Finance Minister Kurt Bu...

Castillo on a razor’s edge; Burneo warns of recession; BCRP likely to pause at 7%
PERU · Report · 23 Aug 2022

We focus on three topics in this report. First, we discuss the likelihood of President Pedro Castillo’s resigning on the back of investigations conducted by the Ministerio Público Fiscalía de la Nación (MPFN, the Attorney General’s Office). Second, we explain the recent changes to our growth fore...

Castillo reshuffles his Cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 07 Aug 2022

On Friday, President Castillo reshuffled his Cabinet for the fifth time in a year of government. Although his Prime Minister (PM), Mr. Anibal Torres, had resigned, President Castillo said on Friday that had confirmed him once again. In addition, he made 6 more changes, and the most relevant was t...

Peru: Political crisis intensifies
PERU · In Brief · 04 Aug 2022

President Castillo is under strong pressure to resign. Last night his Prime Minister (PM), Mr. Anibal Torres, a well-known lawyer, that has defended him from the opposition and declining popular support, decided to resigned. This anticipates a Cabinet reshuffle and the next PM and his Cabinet wil...

The end approaches for Castillo; inflation remains stubbornly high
PERU · Report · 12 Jul 2022

In this report, we discuss how long President Pedro Castillo is likely to remain in office; examine the link between private consumption and mass drawdowns from pension funds; and look at Peru’s inflation performance. With Peru’s commodity prices falling and political risk rising, we have decided...

Webinar Replay: Peru – Castillo walks a tightrope as the economy struggles
PERU · Report · 01 Jul 2022

Will Castillo stay in government? How deep is the economic deceleration? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing Peru's ongoing political crisis and its impact on the country's economic outlook.

Castillo makes last-ditch efforts, as economy slows
PERU · Report · 14 Jun 2022 · 1 response

In this report we discuss the political and economic outlook for Peru. On politics, we argue that President Pedro Castillo is walking a tightrope, and that the probability of his being ousted has increased substantially. In previous reports, we have argued that the preliminary investigation into ...

Castillo struggles to survive; 2022 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.7%
PERU · Report · 17 May 2022

President Pedro Castillo has surprised commentators by successfully fending off several attempts to oust him from office. In past reports, we have argued that the opposition in Congress does not have the votes to impeach the president. However, there is another, more subtle, reason why Castillo h...

Peru: Referendum on a Constitutional Assembly
PERU · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

On Monday and with the approval of the Cabinet, President Pedro Castillo and Prime Minister, Mr. Anibal Torres, submitted to Congress a draft proposal calling for a referendum on a Constitutional Assembly due on October 2nd, and at the time of mid-term State and Municipalities elections. The draf...

Webinar Replay - Crisis in Peru: President Castillo against the wall
PERU · Report · 15 Apr 2022

Gain insights into Peru's political crisis and gauge how the turmoil will impact the country’s political and macro outlook. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing the protests against President Castillo and the likely fallout from the crisis.

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