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Peru: A new political crisis brews
PERU · In Brief · 11 Sep 2020

Last night the new Congress elected in March started an impeachment process on President Martin Vizcarra. That this is happening less than two years ago when former president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski was ousted by the previous Congress indicates that not much has changed in the confrontation between...

Noisy politics and new lockdown jeopardize the economic recovery
PERU · Report · 17 Aug 2020

Congress delivered a shock on Tuesday, August 4, when it passed a vote of no confidence in the then-prime minister, Pedro Cateriano, and his Cabinet. Although the new prime minister, Walter Martos, and his Cabinet were approved by Congress last Tuesday, August 11, with a large majority (115 out o...

Flash: Congress denies confidence to the new Prime Minister
PERU · In Brief · 04 Aug 2020

This morning Congress approved a no confidence vote on the newly appointed Prime Minister, Mr. Pedro Cateriano. The Constitution mandates that the Prime Minister needs to seek a confidence vote from Congress. In case it is denied, the whole Cabinet need to be reshuffled. President Martin Vizcarra...

President Martin Vizcarra reshuffles his Cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 15 Jul 2020

This morning President Martin Vizcarra swore in 10 new members of his new Cabinet and two reshuffles out of a total Cabinet of 19 ministers. This is the largest reshuffle President Vizcarra has made since taking office in March 2018. The new Prime Minister, Mr. Pedro Cateriano, is perhaps the mos...

A deep recession in 2020, but a strong rebound in 2021
PERU · Forecast · 13 Jul 2020

We are keeping unchanged our forecast for a 17% y/y contraction in the real GDP growth rate in 2020 and a 6.5% y/y rebound in 2021. Compared with the market consensus and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecasts, we are more downbeat in the near term but similarly upbeat on the 2021 rebo...

BCRP asks Congress to shelf Bill calling for loan and interest payments moratorium
PERU · In Brief · 17 Jun 2020

Last night, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru (BCRP)’s Governor, Julio Velarde, sent a strong letter to the Head of Congress’ Consumer Defense Commission and asked to shelf the draft Bill that proposes to suspend bank loan and interest payments for 120 days.He said that this bill instead of benef...

Peru macroeconomic forecasts
PERU · Forecast · 16 Jun 2020

We have kept our 2020 growth forecasts unchanged at-17% oya and raised our 2021 on the back of a slightly stronger rebound. We have also made some adjustments to our monthly GDP estimates. We still see 2020 Q2 growth at -27% oya and -70% q/q, saar, despite the deeper fall in April (by -40.5% from...

Peru: Trapped in its own web
PERU · Report · 16 Jun 2020 · 1 response

Once again, politics has taken a front seat in Peru. Although the president, Martín Vizcarra, and his cabinet initially were perceived by the public to have dealt well with the Covid-19 crisis when it erupted in mid-March, recently they have experienced a drop in popularity. Firstly, and despite ...

Peru launch webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne: Peru macro outlook at the time of the coronavirus
PERU · Report · 22 May 2020

Alfredo Thorne discusses the choices facing the government, which is at a crossroads between fighting the virus and reviving the economy in the face of the pandemic.

Government at a crossroads between fighting the virus and reviving the economy
PERU · Forecast · 18 May 2020

The president, Martín Vizcarra, had a strong showing at the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis. Mr. Vizcarra promptly closed ports and airports in early March and put the whole population under lockdown on March 16th, in line with the so-called “hammer” strategy. Moreover, taking advantage of Peru’...

Mitigation efforts in times of coronavirus
PERU · Report · 06 Apr 2020

The Peruvian government was among the first in the region to order stringent social distancing measures, despite a relatively low number of cases at the time. As of April 4th, only 17,841 tests had been applied, 1,746 people had tested positive and 73 people had died. The number of cases is expec...

Coronavirus threatens to depress growth
PERU · Report · 09 Mar 2020

Nine parties will be represented in Congress for the next 16 months, led by a new informal alliance of Acción Popular, Alianza para el Progreso, Somos Perú and Podemos Perú, which together hold 69 of the 130 seats. This majority will allow them to name the president and vice presidents of Congres...

Extremists and populists – but no majority
PERU · Report · 06 Feb 2020

As expected, no political party won a majority in the rather insipid January special election to elect a new Congress, after President Martín Vizcarra dramatically dissolved the body last September. Votes were spread across the political spectrum. With over 94% of ballots counted, nine parties ha...

Exit polls augur a very fragmented new Congress
PERU · In Brief · 26 Jan 2020

Preliminary results to complete (until July 2020) the term of dissolved Congress show the that no party will achieve a plurality. These results could favor President Vizcarra. We do not expect the new Congress to adopt significant reforms, let alone, attempt any amendment to the Constitution.Whil...

How different could 2020 be?
PERU · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The electoral campaign to replace the dissolved Congress seems to have failed to gain momentum. The latest polls find that nearly half of voters haven’t decided who to vote for in the January 26th contest. While some surprises could emerge, the results will most probably favor President Martín Vi...

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