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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Planning secretary resigns
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Apr 2020

In a wholly unexpected development, Socio-economic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia resigned today from his post, citing personal reasons and “differences in development philosophy with a few of my fellow Cabinet members.” It is not clear at this time what these “differences” are and with whom a...

Recession looming
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2020

The coronavirus is indeed spreading much faster than analysts can update GDP growth forecasts. Our last update was only a month ago, before the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. That number, a 50bp downgrade to 5.7%, lower than other analysts’ forecasts at the time, is clearly now ov...

Forecasting in a time of radical uncertainty (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

What we know so far: Significant uncertainty exists as the virus continues to spread at immense cost to human lives. Infections continue to rise, health systems are struggling to cope and necessary lockdowns have been imposed in many developed and developing countries to slow the virus’s transmis...

Unconventional monetary policy to fight covid-19
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Mar 2020

The Monetary Board approved today the purchase of P300 billion of government securities under a repurchase agreement with the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr). In a statement, BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said the additional liquidity is “intended to provide support for those most affected by the enh...

​Monetary policy response to covid-19
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Mar 2020

The Monetary Board (MB) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) today introduced a package of measures to help combat the adverse effects of the covid-19 on domestic economic activity. These included: (1) a 50bp cut in the set of policy rates, with the key overnight borrowing and lending rates r...

Forecasting in a time of radical uncertainty (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Mar 2020

On Monday, as it became evident that putting Metro Manila on lockdown was not going to significantly limit the movement of people, President Rodrigo Duterte, upon the recommendation of health officials, expanded the lockdown to the entire island of Luzon, imposing strict home quarantine on all ho...

Forecasting in a time of radical uncertainty
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2020

Last night, President Rodrigo Duterte, upon the recommendation of health officials, announced that for 30 days starting March 15, Metro Manila will be put under “community quarantine”, a term that he said means a lockdown. The measure was in response to the rapidly rising number of covid-19 infec...

Downgrading GDP growth (COVID-19 impact)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Mar 2020

Since our quarterly outlook issued a little over two weeks ago, the Philippines has not reported new cases of the COVID-19 disease beyond the three cases detected at the time of our report (with one death). In the meantime, travel ban for inbound travelers from certain regions of South Korea has ...

Navigating rough terrain
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 14 Feb 2020

Economic forecasting in a time of a global health emergency is an especially humbling task. Not only do we know that we don’t know how the crisis will evolve, and over what time period, but we also know that we don’t know how economic agents will behave, in response not only to the crisis, but al...

Monetary Board cuts policy rates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Feb 2020

In a move described as “pre-emptive,” the Monetary Board today cut its set of policy rates by 25bp, reducing the key overnight RRP rate to 3.75%. Although the BSP Governor has been signaling that a 50bp rate cut is in store for 2020, we were not expecting a rate cut this early in the year. In his...

Fear
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

On February 2, as news broke of its first death from the coronavirus, the Philippine government decided to restrict entry of travelers coming from China, Hongkong and Macau. Those covered by the temporary ban include all foreign nationals without permanent resident visas who are either coming in ...

GDP growth climbs to 6.4% in 4Q19
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jan 2020

As expected, stronger public spending pushed GDP growth to 6.4% in 4Q19, up from a low of 5.5% in 2Q19 and a downwardly revised 6% growth rate in 3Q19. Both government consumption and public construction grew at double-digit rates, reflecting fierce efforts to catch up on spending held up in 1H19...

Taal Volcano eruption
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

Five days after the eruption of Taal Volcano, situated in one of the most popular domestic tourist destinations some 60km south of Metro Manila, Philippine authorities continue to remain on high alert for the possibility of a hazardous explosive eruption (i.e., Alert Level 4, 5 being the highest)...

Happy new year?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

First, the good news. Government has a new P4.1 trillion budget which President Duterte signed into law early this week. This would normally be par for the course but, following last year’s delayed budget that became a major drag on economic growth, is clearly a positive development. Public spend...

Manila’s water problems (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019

The fortunes of Metro Manila’s water concessionaires have taken a turn for the worse since they drew the President’s ire two weeks ago. First, in an attempt to defuse his anger, the water firms announced that they are waiving the combined P10.8 billion (about $212 million) awarded to them by the ...

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