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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Oops!... He did it again
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Oct 2016

Last month, when President Rodrigo Duterte said he was cancelling military exercises and other cooperation with the U.S., the general reaction even from inside government was, he couldn’t possibly have said that or even if he did, it couldn’t possibly be what it sounded like. But he did say it. A...

Off to China
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Oct 2016

In an earlier post (“Belling the Cat,” 15 July 2016), we wondered what the Duterte Administration would do next, caught between an unsought for victory against China with respect to the country’s claims in the West Philippine Sea / South China Sea and the President’s desire to pursue bilateral ta...

Rude Language and Awakenings
PHILIPPINES · Report · 29 Sep 2016

Judgment, it seems, came early for President Rodrigo Duterte. Not yet 100 days in office, the local currency hit a seven-year low of P48.25:$1, depreciating 3.5% since the start of the month while the main stock index retreated 3.1% over the same period, both worse than most regional peers.

​State of national emergency
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2016

Malacanang today issued Proclamation 55, two days after President Rodrigo Durterte declared a state of national emergency. The Proclamation commanded the Armed Forces of the Philippines, together with the Philippine National Police, “to undertake such measures as may be permitted by the Constitut...

Raising Taxes
PHILIPPINES · Report · 01 Sep 2016

I was privileged to be among a small group of practicing senior economists from academia and business, many of whom are former finance officials, consulted by the senior leadership of the Department of Finance (DoF) to help flesh out its tax reform strategy. Below outlines the key elements of the...

2Q16 GDP grew 7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Aug 2016

Government announced today that the economy grew 7% in 2Q16, in line with what we expected. The economy’s growth performance may be traced to the following factors: Investments in a broad range of durable equipment (+43%), particularly road vehicles; Consumption (+7.3%), boosted by election spend...

Great Expectations
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016

From a little known local politician this time last year, the one-month-old President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, now holds the record for the highest start-of-term level of public trust. He and his team have hit the ground running, exuding an air of impatience, no doubt intending to tr...

​The President’s Speech
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2016

President Rodrigo Duterte delivered his first State of the Nation Address (SONA) before a joint session of Congress this afternoon. The supposed 38-minute speech extended to over an hour as the President went off-script numerous times to explain his stance and policies. The style was very differe...

Belling the cat (now what?)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

Barely two weeks into office, the administration of Rodrigo Duterte was handed a legal victory that it did not ask for and (probably) does not need. The award, issued by the UN-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, is seen by analysts as a sweeping win for the Philippines against Ch...

Setting the tone
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2016

Change has come to the Philippines in the person of its 16th president, Rodrigo Duterte, who was sworn into office at noon yesterday. In a carefully crafted inaugural speech - without the usual profanity - and a three-hour cabinet meeting afterwards, President Duterte set the tone for his 6-year ...

The economy under “Duterminator”
PHILIPPINES · Report · 08 Jun 2016

71-year old Rodrigo Duterte, the oldest Filipino to be elected president, will assume office at the end of the month. Backed by close to 40% of the electorate, he will take the helm of government with an indisputable 6-year mandate, amidst high hopes that radical change will happen under his wat...

Operationalizing the interest rate corridor
PHILIPPINES · Report · 30 May 2016

On Friday, the BSP will launch its interest rate corridor (IRC) system . The changes will be operational in nature and will not affect the stance of monetary policy. These changes include: 1. Adjustments to the set of interest rates used for open market operations with the lending and deposit ...

​Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 May 2016

It is still difficult to listen to him for long. The curses and threats continue to roll off his tongue, his speeches remain stuck in a one-note anti-crime spiel, and his behavior suggests that he has yet to see himself other than a small town mayor. And he is not going to make it easy for the an...

GDP growth accelerates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 May 2016

Government today announced that the economy grew 6.9% in 1Q16, higher than the median analyst forecast of 6.5%. As expected, election spending was a key growth driver pushing up government consumption (+10%) and construction investment (+40%) as well as household expenditures (+7%). The latter, c...

Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 May 2016

The business community finally got a preview of what presumptive president Rodrigo Duterte’s economic program would be. In a press conference late today, former agriculture secretary Carlos “Sonny” Dominguez and a member of Mr. Duterte’s transition team, presented a concise 8-point economic agend...

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