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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

July inflation eases to 4.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported today continuing downtrend in the headline inflation rate to 4.7% in July from 5.4% in June and a high of 8.7% in January. The headline rate reflects a slowdown in the month-on-month increase in the CPI and is well within the BSP’s 4.1% to 4.9% forecas...

Marcos 2.0: Year 2 to-dos
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2023

When Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. assumed power at the end of June last year, we listed five areas where the new administration needed to take fire-fighting stances to speed up post-pandemic recovery. These were: (a) battling inflation and putting fiscal consolidation on more solid footing to ensure mac...

June inflation eases
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jul 2023

Highlights from today’s inflation report are as follows: The headline inflation rate continued to trend down to 5.4% in June from 6.1% the previous month and a high of 8.7% in January. Compared with the February to May months when month-on-month inflation rates were at zero or negative, June mont...

Former BIS / US Fed executive and Economics Professor named BSP governor
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

We expect financial markets here and abroad to welcome the appointment of Eli Remolona as BSP Governor. Currently a member of the Monetary Board, he will assume the governorship on July 3. As we wrote in our latest Forecast report, Mr. Remolona is preeminently qualified for the job having spent 1...

No change in monetary policy settings
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

There were no surprises in today’s Monetary Board meeting. Authorities decided to keep interest rates steady, maintaining the key overnight policy rate at 6.25%. The BSP’s inflation outlook showed price increases easing over the medium-term. There were slight tweaks to the forecasts, with inflati...

BSP cuts reserve requirement ratio
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jun 2023

The BSP today announced reductions in banks’ reserve requirement ratios (RRR) to be implemented starting June 30. As we had expected, the reduction will coincide with the expiration of a pandemic response measure that allowed loans to small firms to be counted as part of reserves. The BSP emphasi...

Growing pains
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 07 Jun 2023

With his high popularity ratings intact, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. steps into his second year in office with another advantage: the business sector has become more at ease with his leadership style. However, he will have a tougher challenge growing the economy. Locally, GDP growth has slo...

Key policy rate held at 6.25%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 May 2023

After raising its set of policy rates by 425bp since May last year, the Monetary Board decided today to pause monetary tightening, keeping the overnight RRP rate at 6.25%. The decision is based on the BSP’s forecast of a gradual decline in inflation to target by 4Q, inflation expectations for 202...

Q1 GDP grew 6.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 May 2023

It was a good start for the Philippine economy, growing 6.4% in Q1 2023 and beating analysts’ median forecast of 6.1%. A quick look at the numbers suggests that pandemic-induced pent-up demand is still the major driver. The 6.3% growth in private consumption, which accounted for 3/4s of GDP growt...

April inflation below expectations
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 May 2023

Food prices continued to fall for the third straight month, pulling down the headline inflation rate from a peak of 8.7% in January to 6.6% in April. As in February and March, April inflation was below analysts’ 7% median forecast. Aside from food prices, which partly reflects seasonal factors (e...

Infrastructure, anyone?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

In Washington for the World Bank / IMF Spring meetings earlier this month, the country’s economic managers turned the spotlight on infrastructure opportunities in the Philippines under the Marcos administration. In a half-day briefing that focused on the economy’s macro fundamentals and investmen...

Dog days of summer
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

Alert levels are expected to go up again over the Luzon grid as the hot summer months test the grid’s thin reserves. Data[1] show that from the last week of April through the third week of June, the Luzon grid is forecast to be on yellow alert. This means that the gap between supply and demand wi...

March inflation decelerates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2023

The headline inflation rate was reported at 7.6% in March, down from 8.6% in February and is below the median analyst estimate of 8.1%. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the price level was unchanged from a month ago, due largely to a 14% drop in the item “vegetables, tubers, cooking bananas and pu...

Policy reform notes
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Apr 2023

We turn our attention away from the banking turmoil in the west and look at some recent domestic policy developments. We find some of these good in terms of helping to improve the local investment climate, some less clear in terms of their economy-wide net benefit, and others, more distracting th...

Monetary Board raises interest rates by 25bp
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Mar 2023

As Governor Felipe Medalla signaled earlier, the Monetary Board raised its set of policy rates by 25bp, bringing the overnight borrowing rate to 6.25% effective tomorrow. Per the Governor, the decision to increase policy rates was mainly influenced by still rising core inflation in February, stil...

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