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October inflation shoots up to 7.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

The BSP’s job just became even harder. Today’s announcement that October inflation reached 7.7% exceeded analysts’ expectations (median forecast of 7.2%) and is near the upper end of the BSP’s 7.1%-7.9% forecast for the month. Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy ite...

Line in the sand for the peso (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Oct 2022

Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno wisely walked back today his comments about government’s plan to defend the peso (see In Brief with same title released 22 October). Based on the Bloomberg report we saw, the key message is that the BSP is independent and its policy decisions are made by the seve...

Line in the sand for the peso
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Oct 2022

We are not alone in scratching our heads over why Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, The Banker’s “Global Central Banker of the Year 2022,” said what he said. Briefly, Bloomberg[1] reported Secretary Diokno saying: (a) government is trying to prevent the peso from breaching P60/$; (b) it is prepa...

The first 100 days: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Oct 2022

100 days have passed since Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the late dictator’s son and namesake, was sworn in as the 17th President of the Philippines. So far, he has behaved as we expected, i.e., not like his father. Although we had said that this is both good and bad, the overall net sentiment of busine...

September inflation climbs to 6.9%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Oct 2022

Local prices continued to increase in September, climbing 0.4% mom and 6.9% yoy. The headline rate itself is unsurprising, falling within the BSP’s 6.6% to 7.4% forecast for the month. Fish, sugar and flour-based products were the main contributors to food price inflation while electricity prices...

POGOs: What’s at stake?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

We momentarily turn our eyes away from the turmoil in financial markets and take a look at the uproar in the online gambling industry. Called POGOs, short for Philippine offshore gaming operators, the industry is akin to business process outsourcing (BPO) in that firms set up bases in the Philipp...

A third 50bps
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

Following the US Fed’s third outsized rate increase of 75bp yesterday, the Monetary Board in its regular meeting today responded with its third 50bp increase for its set of policy rates. Today’s move brings the key overnight RRP rate to 4.25% compared with the fed funds target rate of 3% to 3.25%...

Canary in the coal mine
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Sep 2022

Last week, the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee investigating the controversy surrounding the August 9 order of the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) to import 300,000 metric tons of sugar concluded its public hearings. It recommended the filing of administrative and criminal charges against the ...

August inflation at 6.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2022

Consumer prices continued to trek up in August but at a slower rate of 0.4% month-on-month. The slower climb translated into a headline inflation rate of 6.3%, down from July’s 6.4%, as softening crude oil prices helped offset some of the increases in food prices. Despite the deceleration in the ...

So far, so good
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Aug 2022

It has been a slow crawl out of the pandemic for the economy. 1H2022 output has surpassed the pre-pandemic level but the economy has emerged only to face a gloomy world economic outlook, with elevated commodity prices, tighter financial conditions and slowing global growth. The government lacks t...

Another 50bp rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Aug 2022

The Monetary Board today decided to increase its set of policy rates by 50bp, bringing the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 3.75% effective tomorrow. Year to date, policy rates are up by 175bp following more aggressive tightening since July in response to rising inflation. Per the BSP, inflat...

2Q GDP growth slows to 7.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported today that GDP grew 7.4% year-on-year (yoy) in 2Q. The relatively high headline growth number continues to reflect base effects, i.e., impact of pandemic and lockdowns on last year’s GDP, and is roughly in line with the 7.5% median forecast of analysts...

July inflation at 6.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Aug 2022

Despite softening oil prices, the headline inflation climbed to 6.4% in July from 6.1% in June. The persistence of price pressures may be seen in the still high 0.8% month-on-month inflation, which can be traced largely to continuing increases in prices of all food groups (except vegetables) as w...

A good SONA
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2022

President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. today gave his first State of the Nation Address (SONA) before congress. The speech was forward-looking, without the usual finger pointing of inherited problems, reminding listeners that this administration is in part a continuity of the last one. This is evident n...

Surprise interest rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Jul 2022

After telling reporters some weeks ago that he preferred to do interest rate hikes 25bp at a time, Governor Felipe Medalla announced today that the Monetary Board decided to raise policy rates by a hefty 75bp in an off cycle move. This followed two separate 25bp increase in the last two months an...

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