Country Insights

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Can Russia solve the European gas crisis?
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 20 Dec 2021
The current European energy crisis and huge market volatility are early indicators of imbalances in an accelerated energy transition scenario. The strategy of massive closure of nuclear and coal generation in Europe has led to an increase in the fragility of the entire energy system. The critica...

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CBR’s hike and August CPI imply a key rate higher than 7%
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 10 Sep 2021
The CBR continued its tightening cycle and raised the key rate for the fifth time today. This time it was 25 bp, up to 6.75%, against a consensus forecast of +50 bp. While the press release about the decision was relatively dovish, CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina indicated that the key rate might ...

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July IP data hints economy 'cooling off' in 3q21
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 25 Aug 2021
Rosstat started publishing its data only Wednesdays. This brief is a short overview of the data published today. Industrial productionRosstat released July 2021 industrial production data. It's one of the first 'hard numbers' available for 3q21 from the national statistics office. Formally baseli...

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U.S.-German Deal on Nord Stream - 2 is a win for Gazprom
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 26 Jul 2021
The agreement between the US and Germany to allow the completion of the Nord Stream-2 (NS2) gas pipeline looks like a victory for the Russian side. The agreement also weakens Ukraine's negotiating position when concluding a new transit agreement for 2024. The US and Germany agree that the America...

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How European CBAM may affect Russian exports
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 24 Jun 2021
We made estimates based on the leaked CBAM regulation on Russia's exports to the EU. We estimate that in 2026 imports worth more than $55 billion could be regulated under CBAM. Annual payments using the indicative values ​​of the carbon intensity set by the EC and the price of GHG emissions at $...

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The Government plans to “freeze” fuel prices
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 18 Jun 2021
Vice PM Alexander Novak held a meeting with experts last week where yours truly has also participated. The main topic was a situation on domestic petroleum markets and price increase for fuel in particular. As an outcome, Alexander Novak proposed to repeat an experience of 2018 when the Governmen...

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We expect Russian GDP to increase by +4.5% y/y based on current nowcast estimates
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 28 May 2021
Rosstat has finally released industrial production data for April. The published results were very good: + 7.2% y / y in April after + 2.3% y / y in March. Moreover, Rosstat also revised the data for March upwards compared to the previous release. The mining industry increased output by 14.2% com...

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The government may ban gasoline exports
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 28 Apr 2021
The government is considering the possibility of a ban on the export of gasoline. The main reasons for the possible export restrictions are related to the anti-inflationary rush of the government, which is trying to limit the growth of consumer prices, including for oil products.Since late 2020 t...

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Russian oil production increased +1.5% m/m in March, gas production surged by 12% y/y
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 05 Apr 2021
CDU TEK published its preliminary production data for March. Oil & condensate production was restored by 0.15 mbd, to 10.25 mbd, after a decline in February 2021. Rosneft's results explain almost 2/3 of the monthly increase, but other majors have also shown positive dynamics. Growing external dem...

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Russian oil production fell in February; gas production stabilizes
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 03 Mar 2021
According to CDU TEK data, Russian oil production (including gas condensate) 0.6% m-o-m vs +1% growth in January. Output declined despite the potential opportunity to increase it under the January OPEC+ agreement by 65 tbd (thousand barrels/day). Production decreased roughly by about the same amo...

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Consumer demand improved in January, GDP nowcast estimate remains sluggish for 1Q21
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 23 Feb 2021
Rosstat released its initial set of data for 1M21. According to our estimates based on Rosstat data, retail trade increased +2.4% m-o-m s.a. It's the highest monthly growth rate since last June. Services increased by 1.6% m-o-m s.a. but remained 10.3% lower than a year ago. So trade in goods almo...

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Oil & gas in 2021: gradual recovery after the shock
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Forecast 08 Jan 2021
Russian oil production fell 8.6% in 2020, due to plunging demand and the OPEC+ deal. We expect oil production to increase 2% next year, despite a gradual easing of OPEC+ cuts. The major reason for that is a relatively high base of 2020, and continued pressure on global demand. The most recent OPE...

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CBR stayed on hold due to higher inflation
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 18 Dec 2020
CBR's Board of Directors decided today to keep the key rate unchanged at 4.25%. The decision was widely expected. The most significant part of today's news is that CBR toughened its rhetoric. The Board is no longer sure that there is a potential for further cuts and will "assess" it.CBR has drama...

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Russian oil production was slighly up in November, ahead of OPEC+ meeting; gas production was down to lower European demand
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 02 Dec 2020
According to the most recent CDU TEK data, Russian oil production (including gas condensate) was 10 mbd. Oil production slightly inched compared to October 2020 levels (+0.3% m-o-m) was lower 1.3 mbd in than year ago or -11% compared to March 2020.Chart 1. Russian oil production (including gas co...

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Non-oil GDP increased +0.2% y-o-y in 3Q; overall GDP is down 3.6%
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 15 Nov 2020
According to Rosstat's preliminary data, Russian GDP decreased by only 3.6% y-o-y in 3Q20. It's a significant improvement over 2Q (-8% y-o-y) and means that the economy has almost managed to get back to "normal" in 3Q. There are yet no details on structure of GDP change from the production or con...