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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Damn the torpedoes...
TURKEY · Report · 29 Feb 2024

The Turkish economy grew by 4%, y/y, and 1%, q/q, in the final quarter of last year, with the latter, in particular, sharply stronger than we and, as far as we can tell, the consensus had expected. In 2023 as a whole, GDP growth was 4.5%, down from 5.5% in 2022 (Graphs 1-2).

More on local elections and reserves
TURKEY · Report · 25 Feb 2024

With 5 weeks left to the polling day, the municipal election race is heating up, already witnessing trend reversals. Poll results show CHP incumbents ahead in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. President Erdogan has a decisive propaganda advantage on opposition rivals, but he has two significant weaknes...

On a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2024

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate at 45% today, as expected. There were a number of additions and changes to the statement, which we highlight/comment on in our report. On a relatively minor note, there is now a relatively lengthy sentence on domestic demand conditions, which we read as an ack...

Post-election scenarios, a first take
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the clock rapidly ticking down to the historic rendezvous on March 31, AKP candidate Murat Kurum appears to be edging out Imamoglu in the key battleground city of Istanbul. Incumbent Mansur Yavas in Ankara and new candidate Cemil Tugay in Izmir appear safe. The race is likely to witness tren...

Not much new here
TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2024

With President Erdogan leading the way, parties are sending their heavyweights on whistlestop tours to gain the hearts of voters. Only AKP, in tandem with symbiotic MHP, and CHP have any chance in major municipalities, with available polls in Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul granting CHP incumbents sma...

Webinar Replay - Economic reform in Turkey and Argentina: comparative prospects
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Domingo Cavallo discussing economic policy in Argentina and Turkey as the countries try to shake off their reputations for economic mismanagement. Governments in both countries have committed themselves to economi...

Good presentation, let’s hope for the best
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2024

The CBRT released the first Inflation Report of the year under the new Governor. The Bank kept its yearend inflation forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 at 36% (midpoint of 30%-42%), and at 14% (midpoint of 7%-21%), respectively, unchanged from the October report, as we surmised earlier. The CBRT fo...

January inflation: as bad as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 Feb 2024

Consumer prices rose by 6.7%, m/m, in January, somewhat higher than the market consensus of 6.5%-6.6%, with the 12-month rate rising slightly to 64.9%, from 64.8% a month ago. Wage hikes, particularly the increase in the minimum wage, as well as the beginning-of-the year price/tax adjustments wer...

Change at the CBRT and other news
TURKEY · Report · 04 Feb 2024 · 1 response

The CBRT Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan has departed under vague circumstances, to be replaced by Deputy Governor Fatih Karahan. Her successor’s reign will not witness a change in monetary policy settings, but could arguably create an opportunity to tighten it modestly. The political lesson from this...

War abroad, elections at home
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2024

With two months left to critical municipal elections, CHP incumbents lead in the key battlefront cities of Ankara and Istanbul. Yet, CHP’s allies turned against the party, while the Erdogan-Bahceli alliance is ironclad – and Erdogan has already opened the fiscal floodgates to win. The politics au...

MPC: Done for now
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT hiked the policy rate by 250 bps to 45% (see chart) and ended the tightening cycle – at least in the near term -- in line with expectations. “Taking into account the lagged impact of monetary tightening, the Committee assesses that the monetary tightness ...

Good tidings, we have another crisis
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

Good tidings from Turkey, which after a hiatus of two and half weeks conjured up another “crisis” involving the CBRT Governor Ms. Hafize Gaye Erkan and her family. She is facing charges of nepotism and using Bank resources for personal use. This is a rapidly evolving story, which is difficult to ...

PKK raid, Istanbul race, falling reserves
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2024

AKP nominated former Environmental and Urban Affairs Minister Murat Kurum to challenge Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who seems significantly ahead in early poll data. Yet, Erdogan’s massive propaganda advantage and the strategies of pro-Kurdish party DEM may yet result in surprises. Meanwhile, g...

New year, old agenda
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jan 2024

Our politics coverage starts with a preview of four major events that will define the course of Turkish politics. President Erdogan and nationalist ally Bahceli are likely to emerge victorious from end-March municipal polls, after which they will tackle the unfinished business of amending the con...

Inflation ends 2023 at just under 65%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation was 2.9%, m/m, in December broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence ending the year at 64.8%, up from 62% in November, which is in line with the CBRT’s latest forecast (mid-point %65) announced in the October Inflation Report. Monthly D...

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