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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation ends 2023 at just under 65%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation was 2.9%, m/m, in December broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence ending the year at 64.8%, up from 62% in November, which is in line with the CBRT’s latest forecast (mid-point %65) announced in the October Inflation Report. Monthly D...

Atilla Yesilada: CBRT delivers as expected, more to come
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

I’m subbing for Murat Ucer who is in transit to share my impression of CBRT MPC decision and statement. Murat Ucer will update as and when he sees fit. Gaye Erkan and Co. delivered as widely expected by surveys, raising the policy rate by 250 basis points to 42.5%. The accompanying statement sugg...

Correction: The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2023

Please note that Table 1 in our quarterly/forecast report that was sent yesterday with the above title has been corrected to include the right policy and benchmark rate forecasts for 2024, which are now consistent with the text. The original dispatch, as we've just noticed, had an earlier version...

The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2023 · 1 response

Since the aftermath of the May 2023 elections, there has been visible improvement in policies, which led to tangible gains, more so than we had expected. Among others, the CBRT reserves have improved, as the so-called “KKM” accounts have declined notably; the budget deficit is set to finish the y...

Good-bye Sweden, hello Greece, please EU, please
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2023

I’m writing this Market Brief at 13:00 Istanbul time on Monday. The time stamp is very important, because the shelf-life on the product is probably no more than 24 hours. Alas, Dear Reader, while Erdogan displays uncharacteristic resolve in orthodox economic policy, his foreign policy is all over...

Correction in my recent Market Brief
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

I've inadvertedly stated IYIP garnered ca 8% of the national vote in May 2023. The correct figure  is 9.6%. 

IYIP’s fateful choice may shape the outcome of municipal elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

By a 35-14 vote, Iyi Party’s top decision-making body GIK turned down a request by CHP chair Ozgur Ozel to cooperate in municipal elections. The decision to go solo in the next ballot to gauge its grass-roots support is a fateful choice by IYIP that has profound implications for the party, munici...

An encouraging print in a long journey
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices increased by 3.3%, m/m, in November, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%-3.8.%. Twelve-month CPI-inflation nevertheless edged up to 62%, or to its highest level since the beginning of the year, up from 61.4% a month ago. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.8%, with the 12-month...

Turkey’s “Don’t mess with Uncle Sam” moment
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2023

Despite being a NATO member and allegedly a candidate for EU membership, Turkey is the subject of an extraordinary number of sanctions threats from US and EU. A new one came from US Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson who visited Turkey the second time in 2023, issuing stern warnings to Turkish ...

Anemic growth, signs of rebalancing
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2023

The Turkish economy grew by 5.9%, y/y, in the third quarter of the year, broadly in line with expectations, while in working-day and seasonally adjusted (WDSA) terms, growth slowed visibly to 0.3%, q/q, after surging in the previous quarter, which, incidentally, has been revised down slightly to ...

Too many “known unknowns”
TURKEY · Report · 26 Nov 2023

The politics section of the monthly raises many questions, but answers few, because “events are afoot”, which could significantly alter forecasts. A more definite local elections and 2024 policy scenario will only take shape in mid-January. This being said, foreign policy turns out to be a mix...

A good, positive surprise from the MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by 500 bps to 40% today, above the consensus forecast, including ours, of 250 bps (see chart). The statement also provides specific forward guidance now, which reads as follows (link here): “The Committee assessed that the current level of monetary tightness is...

Discord infects Erdogan and Bahceli, too
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Nov 2023

With roughly four months left to Turkey’s fateful municipal elections, the discord so prevalent among main opposition parties now infected governing partners Erdogan and Bahceli, too. Erdogan desperately wants a new Constitution to grant him eligibility for a third term—and beyond. He opened the ...

Winter is coming, but what kind?
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2023 · 1 response

Last week’s main topic was the infighting in the high judiciary, which has blown over in a couple of days, without anyone grasping what it was all about. This week witnessed President Erdogan’s return to “wolf warrior” diplomacy, sniping at Israel relentlessly and managing to offend his hosts in ...

Economy and politics, too hot for comfort
TURKEY · Report · 12 Nov 2023

Turkey is back to the days when each morning brings a new shock, a new crisis. This week’s menu was topped by vicious sniping between two of Turkey’s three highest courts, with ostensibly one of the rivals being provoked by Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli. By Sunday, Ankara was close to a constitutio...

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