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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Corporate stress, idiosyncratic risks
TURKEY · Report · 11 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Turkish Forces reached the gates of Afrin City by Saturday, where the base-case scenario entails intense street-by-street fighting, which will cost many lives. Ankara is determined to root out PYD-YPG presence from Syria and PKK from Iraq. While such a posture may be deemed necessary to secure th...

MPC: 'Stop, or I'll Say Stop Again'
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2018

In line with the consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did not change any of the short-term interest rates at today’s meeting, keeping the Late Liquidity Window lending rate at 12.75%, one-week repo rate at 8.0%, and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respecti...

Inflation worse than expected on food
TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2018

Consumer prices rose at a higher than expected 0.7% in February (consensus: 0.5%; ours 0.3-0.4%), with the 12-month rate hence staying broadly unchanged at 10.3%, over a month ago. Producer prices rose, however, to 13.7%, from 12.1% reflecting a technical correction in electricity prices, but als...

Alliances at home, conflicts abroad
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2018

At home, the electoral alliance between AKP and MHP begot another one at the center right, as other groupings are beginning to coalesce. Elections contested by alliances rather than individual parties could result in drastically different outcomes that we, or the current poll averages indicate. ...

What’s in Our Minds?
TURKEY · Report · 25 Feb 2018

This month’s report arrives in your inboxes in a Q&A format, thanks to several meetings with groups of investors and experts that allowed us to focus on the FAQ, and areas we consider important yet have been missing from the radar. In politics, Turkish Forces and allies are rapidly moving towa...

​Rumors of Kurds ceding Afrin to Assad creates new scenarios for Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Feb 2018

Turkey’s Syria adventure is one of the most complicated stories ever to be told by Yours Truly, wherein the subtext changes daily. I write this note in the hourly hours of Tuesday, 20th of February, when several reports suggest Syrian Kurds (PYD-YPG, allied with PKK) and President Assad had reach...

U.S. deal hopes, stark IMF warnings
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2018

The U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson left Turkey with promises of empathy, cooperation and compromise, but cynicism runs high in Ankara. America’s ability to persuade Kurds to withdraw from Syrian city Manbij to the eastern shore of Euphrates Rivers is seen as the litmus test of credibility ...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2018

As Turkey and its allied militia slowly but surely advanced into Kurdish-held Syrian canton of Afrin, President Erdogan unveiled an ambitious plan to resettle Syrian refugees along the border, which reinforces our view that Turkey intends to stay in Syria for the long haul. The plan is clever, bu...

Food prices drive inflation lower
TURKEY · Report · 05 Feb 2018

Consumer prices rose at a lower than expected 1% in January (consensus: 1.3%), with the 12-month rate hence falling even sharper to 10.3%, from 11.9% in December. Producer prices also eased significantly to 12.1% from 15.5%, but that was largely because of a sharp drop in energy (more specificall...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 04 Feb 2018

Turkish Forces, supported by the Free Syrian Army auxiliaries, are slowly pushing back Syrian Kurds in Afrin, but final victory will take months and cost many lives. Turkey is already losing the world opinion and the potential for public backlash is non-negligible if casualties mount. Washingt...

Enjoy it while it lasts
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jan 2018

The politics section of the Monthly advances the hypothesis that markets are underpricing Turkey’s political risk. In our heuristic approach, we assert that conventional measures of country risk, such as CDS spreads or TL option volatility are swamped by exuberant risk appetite, masking the long-...

The “Turkish Trilemma” and the Road to November 2019
TURKEY · Presentation · 26 Jan 2018

* On the global front, we have “growth euphoria”, with “synchronized” growth and “secular stagnation (possibly) morphing into secular expansion”? * But caution is advised -- sharp divergence between geopolitics and markets, long term productivity concerns, etc. Need to be watchful of, among oth...

Turkey Conference Call: Turkey in Syria: Understanding the bigger picture
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jan 2018

Afrin is just the start of Turkey's Syria ordeal. Why is Turkey in Afrin and what are the risks? How does "Operation Olive Branch" increase the potential for a US-Turkey clash, and what are the implications for the markets?

Trump-Erdogan phone summit: Lost in translation
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Turkish Forces, aided by Free Syrian Army (FSA) brigades are gradually encircling the Kurdish-majority Afrin province of Syria in Northwest. Clashes are getting fierce by the day with casualties mounting on both sides. Afrin invasion is only the beginning of Turkey’s long and arduous adventure in...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2018

On Saturday evening, the Turkish government heralded the commencement of Operation Olive Branch to root out PYD-YPG and remaining ISIS elements out of Northwest Syrian canton of Afrin. It will not be easy to achieve that objective, considering how well-prepared and committed the pro-PKK Kurdish m...

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