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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Medium-term program announced
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2023 · 2 responses

The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-26 was released today, which was presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, followed by remarks from President Erdogan.

CBRT’s unenviable uphill battle
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Consumer prices rose by a near-double digit monthly rate of 9.1% in August (August 2022: 1.5%), significantly higher than consensus forecasts and our own, atop a 9.5% increase in July. The twelve-month rate rose sharply to almost 60% -- 58.9%, to be precise -- from 47.8% in July. Monthly PPI infl...

Gearing up for an eventful autumn
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2023

Putin finally granted Erdogan a summit in September, which bodes well for the future of “frenemy” relationship, but Erdogan’s hopes of midwifing a second grain deal are probably dead. At home, both alliances are negotiating already about local election alliances, which will be held in March 20...

Growth accelerates in Q2, remains unbalanced
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2023

The Turkish economy expanded by 3.8%, y/y, and 3.5%, q/q, in the second quarter of the year. While GDP growth has been broadly stable in the past few quarters in annual terms (i.e., over the same quarter of the previous year; Graph 1), it has been rather volatile in sequential terms (q/q), postin...

The MPC acts bold, what’s next?
TURKEY · Report · 24 Aug 2023 · 1 response

In an encouraging and surprising move, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by a markedly more than expected 750 bps to 25%, versus a consensus expectation of 250 bps (see chart). That the decision came at the very first MPC meeting of the newly appointed deputies, also send the right signals. The...

The summer lull is almost over
TURKEY · Report · 23 Aug 2023

With 7 months left until crucial municipal elections, the opposition is comatose, but AKP is still not guaranteed to reclaim big cities from CHP, thanks to rising economic frustration and the genuine popularity of some CHP candidates. President Erdogan’s larger dilemmas are all abroad. The eve...

The Sultan woos the Sheikhs: Turkey’s improved GCC relations bolster external financing
TURKEY · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 1 response

This report is a joint publication co-authored by Atilla Yesilada and our GCC analyst, Justin Alexander. * Turkey received a $5bn Saudi deposit in March and possibly undisclosed support from UAE and/or Qatar that averted a currency crisis ahead of the May elections and helped keep Erdogan in p...

Forget holistic, let's get simplistic
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2023

Consumer prices rose by a near double-digit 9.5% in July over a month ago, “broadly” in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate markedly rising to 47.8% from 38.2% in June, after 8 consecutive months of decline, as myriad factors, most notably currency weakness and tax hikes took their tol...

The state of the nation (and macro)
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2023

In this last weekly report before the summer recess, the politics author briefly discusses the “state of the nation”. In foreign relations, President Erdogan’s U-turn looks more permanent than his experimentation with quasi-orthodoxy in economic policy. In terms of Gulf funds, there is very visib...

Inflation report presentation: some quick reactions
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2023

The CBRT released the year’s third Inflation Report today, which corresponded with Governor Erkan’s first public appearance. The Bank revised the yearend inflation forecast up substantially to 58% (mid-point), from 22.3% previously, citing several reasons like increases in food and administered p...

Special Brief: Notes from NYC visits
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

Introduction and Summary The politics author (from now on I) has spent last week in NYC, visiting members of our GSP audience in the company of my NY office colleagues. In three days, we visited 10 institutions, speaking to another 12 in a luncheon hosted by Standard Chartered Bank, for which I’m...

Waiting for the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2023

This is another econ-only report, as the politics author is in transit after holding several rounds of meetings in New York, which he will report on, among other things, during the week. Consumer confidence dropped sharply again in July, owing to TL weakness and as the effect of pre-election s...

A matter of words vs deeds
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a less than expected 250 bps today (vs. a median forecast of about 500 bps hike) to 17.5% (see chart), but broadly in line with our expectations (of some 200-300 bps hike). Recall that we’ve been working with the assumption of the MPC ge...

Quo Vadis Mr Erdogan?
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

Executive Summary: Erdogan’s reinvention in progress, preview of a critical week and Ukraine grain deal This Special Brief is filed separately from our Weekly Tracker because of time differences between USA and Turkey, and my impending trip to NYC where I shall be visiting members of our GSP audi...

Playing catch up
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jul 2023

Our politics author will write his update separately in the next 24-48 hours, because of a few emergencies he had to attend to; please accept our apologies. We start this econ-only Weekly with a preview of this Thursday’s upcoming MPC/CBRT meeting, at which we think there is again a risk of un...

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