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Spending plan 2024: assuming a narrower deficit amid dominating uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2023

On September 15, the Cabinet submitted the draft for the 2024 spending plan to the parliament. The design of the 2024 spending plan closely mirrors what we observed last year. The authorities anticipate active military action continuing until mid-2024, leading to a planned reduction in defense sp...

The NBU cuts the prime rate by an extra 2 ppt down to 20%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

In August, with inflation easing to +8.6% y/y, strong gross international reserves at $40.4 billion (equivalent to 5.4 months of future imports), and a relatively stable FX market, all signs indicated that the NBU Board would cut the prime rate again in September. Experts had anticipated a 2 ppt ...

President Zelenskiy Replaces Minister of Defense to Ease Tensions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

The news about the replacement of Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov dominated the headlines yesterday. This serves as an excellent example of how the reputation of a corrupt country can have negative repercussions at the most inopportune times. Since the beginning of 2023, Oleksiy Reznikov has...

Disrupting the corridor to Crimea
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Aug 2023

The battle for the South remains a primary focus. As of this writing, Ukrainian forces are advancing at a measured pace, having breached the Russians' first line of defense, and are currently making progress through the main fortifications near Tokmak. To observers, this pace might seem underwhel...

The NBU starts easing cycle, cuts prime rate by 3 ppt to 22%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

The recovering economy, slowing inflation, and stabilized FX market have prompted the NBU Board to initiate an easing cycle, beginning with a prime rate cut of 3 ppt, down to 22%. This marks the first rate cut since the large-scale invasion began. The NBU also indicates that further easing is exp...

Building plans amid the fog of war
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Jul 2023

The counteroffensive did not yield significant gains in terrain for two months, sparking discussions about the operation's lackluster progress. However, measuring the progress of the counteroffensive solely in terms of square kilometers of liberated land is not the right approach. The Russians ha...

NATO Summit 2023 – mixed feelings but an apparent step forward
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jul 2023

All the developments at the NATO Summit in Vilnius triggered multiple emotional reactions from Ukraine. It would be a stretch to say that Ukrainian authorities had a poor understanding of the unfolding events or held unrealistic expectations. However, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy did require som...

How is the battle progressing? Slowly, but with persistence.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jul 2023

My foreign friends often ask me about my impressions of the counter-offensive. A month has passed since the major battle was announced, but the situation looks unsettling, with no substantial territorial gains to show for it. All the reports from Russian military bloggers about the loss of Wester...

Kahovka Dam blast: If you lose, destroy everything
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

On the night of June 5th, the Russians destroyed the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam. It is difficult for me to comment on how this incident might impact the ongoing counteroffensive. There may be some adjustments in plans and potential delays as a result. Crossing the Dnipro River to the ...

Time to return what belongs to us
UKRAINE · Report · 30 May 2023

The commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has shared a video on his social media accounts announcing that it’s time to reclaim what belongs to us. His message succinctly captures the essence of the current situation in Ukrainian society, both on the frontlin...

"Star Wars" in the Kyiv sky
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 May 2023

The night of May 16th in Kyiv was somewhat noisy, and the sky resembled battle scenes from the "Expansion" series or "Star Wars". In the morning, we learned from official reports that the Ukrainian air defense successfully repelled one of the most intense air strikes witnessed during the ongoing ...

Hypersonic missile downed for the first time, early signs of unfolding counter-offensive
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 May 2023

Today, we received official confirmation of a groundbreaking development: for the first time since the full-scale invasion began, Ukraine's air defense successfully intercepted and destroyed a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile. Russia possesses only a limited number of these hypersonic missiles ...

Decisive battle over Ukrainian south looms
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Mar 2023

The Russians failed to seize Bakhmut, despite the huge efforts they devoted to taking the town. The goal of Ukrainian forces was to exhaust the Russians as much as possible before the spring counter-offensive started. Sitting in defense in Bakhmut was a good position for the Ukrainian Army to cau...

The first year of the war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2023

A year ago, we woke up to a new reality. It was a day when all Ukrainians had to start anew, reevaluating themselves and their surroundings. However, it was also a day that put everything in its place. All the previously complex issues became simple and clear with just one click. The Russian lead...

Special Report: Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine
UKRAINE · Report · 21 Feb 2023

The CASE Center for Social and Economic Research has just finished a report “Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine”. A group consisting of ourselves and other economists has been working on this over the last 8 months, and it is fundamental research on the issue of post-war recovery. Unlike ot...