Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

2017–2019 Forecast: Autocracy vs Reforms
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Jun 2017

With a crashing economy and an unpopular regime trying to entrench its power, anything can happen in Venezuela over our 2017–2019 forecast horizon. We construct two scenarios that we consider equally likely, one in which Maduro’s government persists (“Autocracy”) and another in which it is replac...

“Original” chavismo: New actor on stage
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Jun 2017

A new actor is on the Venezuelan stage: the "original" chavismo, grouped around Chief Prosecutor Luisa Ortega Díaz. Ortega is discharging her institutional duty by opposing Maduro’s National Constituent Assembly (ANC) initiative. She is linked to “original“ chavistas who criticize Maduro and stan...

Inflation shoots up
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jun 2017

We forecast month-on-month inflation shooting up to 26 percent in June, and revise upward our May estimate to 22 percent (from 18 percent in our previous report). The year-to-date inflation rate for the first half of 2017 rises to 184 percent and the year-on-year rate goes up to 627 percent.

Goldman Sachs’s controversial operation
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Jun 2017 · 1 response

The history of the Pdvsa 2022(N) bond sold a few days ago by BCV to Goldman Sachs ($2.8 billion), Nomura Securities ($100 million) and a third yet unidentified institution ($100 million) began in October 2014.

Dicom: An underwhelming debut
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Jun 2017

BCV published the results of the first auction of the new Dicom system on May 31, 24 hours later than promised. The list of beneficiaries has been published as we write. Experience to date tells us that BCV is afraid of letting the Dicom rate get close to parallel market level. The forex flow ...

Little support for Maduro’s power grab
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 May 2017 · 1 response

The government has set the date for National Constituent Assembly (ANC) elections for July. “Elections” is a generous term: under Maduro’s transparent plan to consolidate power, his government would essentially hand pick the constitutional delegates through obscure “social sector” quotas and ad h...

The new Dicom
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 May 2017 · 2 responses

The new Dicom forex supply system comes to life amid heavy rationing in BCV’s dollar sales to the public . Official announcements seek to convey the idea of an increase in forex. They also announce automation, supervision and control by a BCV Auction Committee, and transparency, by publishing the...

Inflationary pressures don’t subside
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 May 2017

Our monthly inflation rate forecast accelerates to 17.6 percent in May from 15.6 percent in April owing to the rising price of the dollar in the parallel market, the May 1 wage hike, monetary expansion, and worsening supply chain problems. The annual inflation rate falls to 578.6 percent from 592...

Wages go up but inflation wins the battle
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 May 2017

On May 1 the monthly minimum income for private sector workers rose by 35 percent (+ 120 percent YTD) reaching 200,000 bolivars, the number the government is using for propaganda purposes. Real income in May is 37 percent lower than a year ago. President Maduro only announced the May 1 raise. ...

“You wanted elections? Here you have your elections!"
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 May 2017 · 2 responses

Those were Maduro’s derisive words when presenting his decree calling for a National Constituent Assembly to the National Electoral Council on May 4. Maduro seeks to escape pressures by creating a new political legitimacy that will allow him and his group to remain in power. Since he is unable...

Cracks in the Regime
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Apr 2017

Weeks of protests, social unrest, and deaths have devastated what was left of the regime’s international reputation and spread mass discontent even to chavista strongholds. Paramilitary and other armed groups associated with the regime are fighting each other and defying state authority. The mili...

Clouds on the Horizon
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Apr 2017

​Venezuela made the first heavy payment of 2017 on April 12: $2.1 billion in principal and interest on the Pdvsa 2017 bond and $122 million in interest on the Pdvsa 2027 and 2037 bonds. But another $8.2 billion are still due this year: $3.9 billion on Pdvsa bonds, $2.2 billion in sovereign bonds,...

Inflation doesn’t budge despite recession
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Apr 2017

We forecast a stable monthly and annual inflation rate in April at 14.4% month on month (14.6% in March) and 585.3% year on year (585.4% in March).

From democratic façade to outright dictatorship
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Apr 2017

Two Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) rulings early last week stripped the National Assembly of its powers and restricted parliamentary immunity, leaving Nicolás Maduro with no formal checks on his power. This lurch into dictatorship caused an uproar at home and abroad. As we write, the court see...

Inflation slows down in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2017 · 2 responses

We forecast a slowdown in the monthly inflation rate to 16 percent in March. However, the annual rate accelerates sharply to 592 percent (from 550 percent in February). Our March forecast reflects our assumption of a 28 percent decrease in the price of the dollar in the parallel market and slight...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.