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What To Expect in the Post-Giordani Era
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2014

Jorge Giordani’s departure was a decision made by the powers that be. The letter he published in the chavista website Aporrea [1] was the means he chose to expose the discomfort and the ins and outs of the government’s decision making process. These events strengthen Nicolás Maduro and the reform...

Rodolfo Marco Torres replaces Jorge Giordani on the BCV board
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Jun 2014

Today, 10 June 2014, the Official Gazette reports the appointment of Rodolfo Marco Torres, minister of Finance, as member of the board of the BCV as member of the Cabinet. Marco Torres replaces Jorge Giordani, who was a member of the board throughout his tenure as minister of Planning. (According...

Inaction Speaks Louder than Words
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2014

Executive Summary The two dialogue processes that began in April are stuck. The government has made clear that it doesn’t intend to make a single concession to the opposition and that its promises to the business sector are mere words. The government has no incentive to make meaningful political ...

Better Than Nothing
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The government and opposition moderates have sat down to negotiate an end to the street protests and violence. The process is fragile and may be abandoned at any moment. The opposition is divided—radicals don’t want to back down and wait till 2018 to unseat Maduro. The governmen...

Devaluation, Step by Step
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Fourteen months of slow reforms have shaped the forex regime that will, in our view, be in place until after the 2015 legislative elections. The system is based on three official exchange rates: the 6.30 bolivars per dollar Cadivi/Cencoex rate, Sicad and Sicad II. The government...

Buying Time
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Two months of protests have left dozens dead, hundreds injured, over 1,800 arrested, assets damaged, and daily life disrupted. Government repression has been severe. Constitutional violations have set dangerous precedents. This turmoil has hurt the government’s image abroad but ...

CORRECTED - Sicad II started at last. No surprises.
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Mar 2014

In line with Rafael Ramírez’s unofficial announcements, the average price of the dollar in Sicad II in its first day of operations was 51.86 Bs/$, as BCV reported at 6:00 PM. No information was given on trading volume. However, we believe volume today was low. Participants and banks have had litt...

Sicad II: Relief, No Solution
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2014

Sicad II will begin operating soon under Foreign Exchange Agreement (CC) 27[1]. Individuals and companies will be able to buy and sell foreign currency and dollar-denominated securities at a price that will reflect market conditions and, more importantly, intervention by BCV and Pdvsa. Sicad II w...

Stagflation But No Blow-out
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 13 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Our 2014–2015 central scenarios assume that stagflation leads to social conflict. We expect episodes of turbulence but no widespread blow-out. Inflation accelerates, economic activity weakens, real consumption falls, and oil production is stagnant or slightly down. GDP falls by ...

Political Earthquake
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Feb 2014

The Venezuelan political puzzle, shaken by widespread protests since early February, is slowly starting to come together again even though some parts don’t fit together yet. Leopoldo López’s image as opposition leader has strengthened. He turned himself in on February 18, as promised, in a massiv...

Weak Foreign Public Sector Assets
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Feb 2014

We update our estimate of public sector foreign financial assets including official data on the central bank’s foreign reserves and partial information on non-reserve assets. We estimate that unencumbered liquid foreign assets fell to $30.3 billion by December 2013 from $46.8 billion in December ...

Political Violence: Episode or New Phase?
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2014

The opposition’s defeat in the December 2013 municipal elections fueled the debate on the path to power in Venezuela among opposition leaders. Some argue that Venezuela can’t endure five more years with a Maduro government while others believe that the next few years should be devoted to building...

Stubborn Inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2014

Monthly National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) inflation accelerated in January 2014 to 3.3 percent from 2.2 percent in December 2013. The year-on-year rate closed at 56.2 percent (56.1 percent last year). Inflation usually slows in January reflecting seasonal decline in demand and retail sales. Th...

Fair Prices or General Price Control?
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2014

The recently approved Law on Fair Prices (LOPJ) fully subjects economic activity to state control. The law created a government agency with broad powers to regulate prices, costs and profit margins of all companies and individuals producing goods and services in Venezuela. Penalties and sanctions...

Unfortunate Glitch
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2014 · 3 responses

The central bank’s decision to suspend Sicad No.16 led to confusion and hurt the credibility of the new forex policy announced by Rafael Ramírez, Vicepresident for Economic Affairs, on 22 January 2014. It's the first time a Sicad event has been suspended. It was the first auction after Ramírez an...

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