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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

On Rafael Ramirez's Appointment
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013 · 2 responses

Rafael Ramírez replaces Nelson Merentes as Vicepresident for the Economic Area (Decree No. 457, Official Gazette No. 40,266 , 7 October 2013). Merentes will probably soon leave the Ministry of Finance and take an official position abroad. His departure materializes his failure to liberalize the e...

Lots of Talk, Little Action
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The government sorely needs to adopt credible and sustainable policies to stabilize exchange rates, prices, and expectations. An immediate priority is to patch up the exchange rate regime. The administration is planning to set up a new foreign exchange mechanism to run alongside...

Heads Up
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

Rumors about conversations between the IMF and the Venezuelan government are emerging. We don’t know if there's any basis for these rumors. However, thinking out of the box, we see both parties having incentives to engage in conversations.  For the IMF, this would be an opportunity to reestablish...

Petronas' Departure from Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

According to Reuters, Malaysian state oil company Petronas announced it quit its participation in Petrocarabobo, a 400,000 b/d Orinoco Oil Belt project in which Petronas held 11%. The other partners are PDVSA (60%), Repsol (11%), ONGC Videsh (11%), Oil India (3.5%) and Indian Oil Corp (3.5%).  Pe...

Draft Reform of FX Law
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

The available draft of the new Forex Law (Ley Contra los Ilícitos Cambiarios, LCIC) is a move towards a more flexible and open foreign exchange regime.The project brings few substantive changes to the definition of offenses and significantly increases penalties. The fundamental change, in our vie...

One Step Closer to Compensation
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Sep 2013

After almost six years, the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) issued a ruling in the case ConocoPhillips vs. the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (ICSID Case No. ARB/07/30) on the expropriation of ConocoPhillips’ stake in Petrozuata, Hamaca and Corocoro. The rulin...

Investment Opportunities in Venezuela in Oil and Gas
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Sep 2013

The Key Energy Opportunities in Venezuela versus other Emerging Market Countries The Venezuelan government has realized the need to increase oil and gas output as oil markets have moved to a not-so-rosy outlook and prices are stable, with a downside risk. Geopolitical risks only provide brief res...

Taking stock of last week's Sicad auction
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 26 Aug 2013

By announcing it would award 2035 Pdvsa bonds in the Sicad auction, BCV created the expectation of actual delivery of the bond to companies. In reality, BCV sold the bonds in the market and is awarding dollars. Reference to the market value of the bonds ($239.8 million, 79.9%) in BCV’s notice on ...

Slow and Gradual Economic Policy
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Aug 2013

Executive Summary With December municipal elections nearing, President Maduro and the PSUV face political challenges from within chavismo as well as from the opposition. Small allied parties are protesting for having been offered only 5 percent of the candidacies. The base is unhappy that no prim...

Pdvsa 2035 show up in Sicad
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2013 · 2 responses

The BCV bond portfolio emerges as a source of funds for Sicad auctions. The BCV has called a $330 million bid which will be funded through the sale of Pdvsa 2035, without affecting its dwindling foreign reserves. The Sicad bond system differs from Sitme. In Sicad, importers will not acquire bonds...

Sicad 2 Disappoints
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Nicolás Maduro has had a busy month filled with activities at home and abroad designed to show him firmly in control of the presidency. Meanwhile, repression against opposition politicians continues. The PSUV seems to be trying to silence the opposition by harassment. Venezuela’...

Sicad Methodology
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jul 2013

On Monday, July 15 in the afternoon, Armando León, member of the board of BCV, announced the methodology to be used to award forex in the Sicad auction on Wednesday, July 16. BCV will define a range (i.e., floor and ceiling). Bids that fall outside the range will be disqualified. Forex will be so...

Midyear Brief
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jul 2013

Dialogue with the private sector is President Maduro’s most important public policy initiative so far, seeking to identify and resolve the most critical obstacles to local production. Hostility has given way to a rather relaxed exchange of views. The short list of urgent matters includes access t...

Sicad 2.0 on the Horizon
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Jul 2013

The new Sicad system will begin operating in a matter of days. Key issues, such as theallocation mechanism, amounts to be auctioned, criteria defining qualified buyers, and of course, the exchange rate, are still undefined and in the hands of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. Hopefull...

Recession with Inflation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 01 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Our outlook for 2013–2014 is gloomy. Owing to years of costly and unsustainable government policies intensified during the long lead-up to last year’s presidential vote and prolonged by regional elections, Chávez’s death, and the snap election to replace him, the economy shrinks...

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