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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Waiting For The Second Shoe
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Jan 2014

Measures announced so far, in our view, set the stage for a more meaningful bolivar devaluation shortly. This is just the beginning. So far the government has sharpened the tools for forex and price controls, raised the cost and reduced the amount of dollars for personal expenses abroad, and clos...

Radical Ideology, Pragmatic Implementation
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jan 2014

In his first annual message to the National Assembly on 15 January 2014, President Nicolas Maduro confirmed the government’s intervention strategy "no matter what happens” (sic) emphasizing on controls on prices and foreign exchange transactions. Shortly after, Jorge Arreaza, Executive Vicepresid...

Maduro's address will be at at 4:00PM (Caracas time)
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2014

As per the National Assembly Secretariat's announcement.

Heads Up
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Jan 2014

Tomorrow, 15 January 2014, President Nicolás Maduro will present the Annual Presidential Message to the the National Assembly. He has offered to take this opportunity to make "special" announcements. Maduro might announce some of the measures that markets expect, particularly on foreign exchange ...

Stagflation Postponed to 2014
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Venezuela will begin 2014 with growth slowing sharply and inflation remaining sky high. In other words, the country will suffer stagflation. We estimate that GDP will grow by only 1.6 percent this year and shrink by 2.5 percent in 2014. We see inflation rates persisting in the 5...

The Price of Gasoline
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2013

Shortly after the December 8 elections, the government started hinting at a gasoline price increase coupled with new subsidies to public transport. Jorge Arreaza, Executive Vicepresident, and Haiman El Troudi, Minister of Land Transportation, placed the topic on the public agenda. Rafael Ramirez,...

Our take on the December 8 Elections
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Dec 2013

Winners and losers Nicolas Maduro and PSUV are clear winners in the December 8 municipal elections. They have good reasons to celebrate even if the joy was not complete. According to the National Electoral Council, PSUV led the national vote count by a 6.5 percent margin over the opposition coali...

Guide for December 8
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2013

What’s at stake? Chavismo currently controls 85 % of the municipalities in the country (284 out of 335). In all likelihood, it will continue controlling a significant majority of municipalities after December 8. In our view, three indicators will be used to measure success in the upcoming electio...

Little Reason to Cheer
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 15 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryWe extend our forecast horizon to 2015 and see little reason to cheer. The shift toward deeper state intervention that began last October endures. Monetary, exchange rate, fiscal, and price control policy frameworks are kept in place, worsening distortions and sharpening imbalanc...

Why is the Venezuela Oil Basket Price Falling?
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Nov 2013

The Venezuela oil basket price[1] has been falling and losing ground relative to WTI and Brent since September 2013. For the first time in two years, the Venezuela basket is lower than WTI.As shown on graph 2, Venezuelan oil prices closely follow Mexican heavy oil Maya. This reflects Pdvsa’s pric...

2014 Fiscal Budget
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Nov 2013

The government is budgeting a 3.7 percent of GDP deficit for the national government in 2014, according to the draft budget submitted to the National Assembly on October 15. We forecast a substantially lower deficit at 0.7 percent of GDP. As usual, both revenues and expenditures are underestimate...

On Rafael Ramirez's Appointment
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013 · 2 responses

Rafael Ramírez replaces Nelson Merentes as Vicepresident for the Economic Area (Decree No. 457, Official Gazette No. 40,266 , 7 October 2013). Merentes will probably soon leave the Ministry of Finance and take an official position abroad. His departure materializes his failure to liberalize the e...

Lots of Talk, Little Action
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The government sorely needs to adopt credible and sustainable policies to stabilize exchange rates, prices, and expectations. An immediate priority is to patch up the exchange rate regime. The administration is planning to set up a new foreign exchange mechanism to run alongside...

Heads Up
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

Rumors about conversations between the IMF and the Venezuelan government are emerging. We don’t know if there's any basis for these rumors. However, thinking out of the box, we see both parties having incentives to engage in conversations.  For the IMF, this would be an opportunity to reestablish...

Petronas' Departure from Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

According to Reuters, Malaysian state oil company Petronas announced it quit its participation in Petrocarabobo, a 400,000 b/d Orinoco Oil Belt project in which Petronas held 11%. The other partners are PDVSA (60%), Repsol (11%), ONGC Videsh (11%), Oil India (3.5%) and Indian Oil Corp (3.5%).  Pe...

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