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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

THE BET ON POLARIZATION Lula has entered 2024 facing a challenging political scenario, to say the least. Despite decent economic growth and lower inflation in 2023, his approval ratings are not comfortable, and the economic outlook for this year is more modest. Besides public money to boost de...

US Interest Rates and the Brazilian Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2024

Since 2022, the movements of the Real have closely followed the variations of the Dollar Index, which in turn reflects betting on the movements of the fed funds rate. Although the market wager on an early start of the easing cycle in the United States was strengthened by the comments of Jerome Po...

What Explains 2023 Growth?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

It is becoming increasingly clear that growth in 2023 was not due to increased potential GDP. Despite seducing influential observers, the narrative that Brazil is reaping the benefits of the maturing of past reforms cannot withstand the clear evidence that only actual GDP has been rising, derived...

The Challenges Facing the Government In 2024
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jan 2024

We’re starting 2024 – the first year of the new Fiscal Framework. Although the successive cuts of the SELIC rate have made monetary policy looser, it is still sufficiently restrictive to reduce economic growth. How will the government react to a reduction of GDP growth from 3.1% to 1.5%? The conf...

Fiscal Stimuli, Monetary Accommodation and GDP Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Dec 2023

The strong GDP growth in 2023, of 3.1%, is much more a consequence of actual GDP, spurred by aggregate demand, than by growth of potential GDP. No matter how attractive they are, the narratives about increased productivity have no empirical support. Contrary to government and household consumptio...

The GDP “Surprise” and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2023

Contrary to the nearly unanimous expectation of a decline between 0.2% and 0.3%, GDP in the third quarter expanded by 0.1%, largely thanks to the robust performance of household consumption. Although that growth was also benefited by the strong increase of exports, its main cause was growth of co...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2023

CHRISTMAS SHOPPING Taking advantage of the relaxed climate of year-end parties and trips, politicians in Brasília are racing to misuse the public purse, by relaxing the rules that guarantee impersonality, transparency, competition, and fiscal discipline. Even the phantoms of the “creative acco...

Interest Rates in the USA, Term Premium and Reflections on Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Since Brazil is integrated in international capital flows, the Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions must consider what happens in the United States, and to clarify the importance of this fact, nothing is better than an example. In 2020, against the backdrop of the pandemic, the Federal Reserv...

“...E La Nave Va”
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2023

“…And the ship sails on” The IBC-Br published last week leaves no doubts: GDP growth is clearly decelerating (Graph 1). After all, the path through which the restrictive monetary policy reduces inflation is the decline of actual GDP in relation to potential GDP. Even though the successive redu...

Webinar replay - Brazil 2024 Macro Outlook
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Nov 2023

How effective will Brazil's fiscal framework be? What impact will the country's monetary policy have on the interest rate by the end of the easing cycle? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Brazil's macro outlook for 2024.

Slide Presentation - Brazil 2024 Macro Outlook
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2023

Get insight into Brazil's macro outlook for 2024, including how effective Brazil's fiscal framework will be and what impact the country's monetary policy will have on interest rates by the end of the easing cycle—all with the slide presentation from our "Brazil 2024 Macro Outlook" webinar.

The 2020 Depreciation, Foreign Exchange Flows and Trade Balance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

The minutes of the last COPOM meeting stated that “at upcoming meetings” the easing pace of 50 basis points per meeting will be maintained, so it is certain that the SELIC rate will be lowered to 11.25% at the meeting in January. However, thereafter the Central Bank will have to use the “art in t...

The Lula of 2003 and the Lula Of 2023: From Pragmatism to Populism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023

In this report, we compare the objectives and the motivations – economic and political – underpinning the fiscal policy in two Lula administrations. The first (Lula 1), starting in 2003, was marked by an acute crisis of confidence, prompting Lula to be temporarily pragmatic, unconditionally accep...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Oct 2023

Fiscal discipline doesn’t sit well with either Lula or the Centrão parties. Without a government policy to put the country on the path to sustainable economic growth, with his popularity sinking and dependence growing on the Centrão to win approval of any measures in Congress, Lula has abandoned ...

Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2023

Fiscal space, defined as the government’s flexibility in choosing to increase spending, is a concept closely tied to the sustainability of the public debt. Countries where the real interest rate is lower than the rate of economic expansion have greater fiscal space than countries in which the rea...

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