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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

D-Day for new ANC leader
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 17 Dec 2017

Since yesterday, the ANC Elective Congress has been in full swing, but on slow motion, mainly due to the mix of ‘delegate accreditation issues” and “the pending court cases” against three provincial structures and some districts with relatively large branches. Interestingly enough, the majority o...

South Africa’s current account deficit narrows to 2.3% of GDP
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Dec 2017

The surplus on the South African trade balance widened once again during the third quarter of 2017, a trend that started during the last quarter of 2016, making it the fourth consecutive quarter of a trade surplus growth. The trade surplus increased to R71 billion during the quarter from R64 bill...

GDP Expands Again During the Third Quarter of 2017
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2017

On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, GDP in the third quarter of 2017 increased by 2.0%. This was the second consecutive quarterly increase following the upwardly adjusted second quarter growth rate of 2.8% q/q (previously 2.5%). Furthermore, these positive growth ra...

The Reserve Bank Treads with Caution as Credit Ratings and The ANC Elective Conference Approach
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Nov 2017

The South African Reserve Bank’s Governor Lesetja Kganyago has announced that the Bank will be keeping the country’s repo rate at 6.75%, and hence the prime interest rate also remains at 10.25%. Headline CPI receded to 4.8% y/y in October 2017 (the same rate recorded in August 2017) following ...

An Eventful Week in South Africa and the Region
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 20 Nov 2017

This week is set to be a critical week for South Africa and the SADC (Southern African Development Community) region. Over the past few days, Zimbabwe has gone from a police-state dictatorship to a never-seen-before popular peaceful uprising, assisted by the national army, trying to push out Robe...

SA’s 2017 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Oct 2017 · 1 response

This year's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was delivered by Minister Gigaba yesterday. This was of particular interest for a variety reasons. Most importantly, this was Gigaba's maiden budget policy statement, an opportunity to assess his political economy stance. Minister Gigaba was...

South Africa's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 25 Oct 2017

This year's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was delivered by Minister Gigaba earlier today. This was of particular interest for a variety reasons. Most importantly, this was Gigaba's maiden budget policy statement, an opportunity to assess his political economy stance. Minister Gigaba...

SA’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) Later Today
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Oct 2017

The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) is being delivered later today by the Finance Minister, Malusi Gigaba. A number of developments that affect (or could affect) the fiscus have taken place since the main budget was delivered during February 2017. Some of the more prominent events tha...

President Zuma and His 12th Nuclear Cabinet Reshuffle
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 18 Oct 2017

Yesterday, in a fairly uncermonious manner, and uncharacteristically during day time, President Zuma introduced his 12th Cabinet reshuffle in 8 years. Mostly, he re-arranged his ministers' portfolios, even some who were appointed a mere 6 months back were moved around. He brought an staunch and y...

President Zuma's Legal Setback: "The Spy Tape 783 Corruption Cases" back on the Table
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 13 Oct 2017

Today, the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) ruled against President and the National Prosecuting Agency (NPA), declaring that the NPA's decision, back in 2007, to drop the charges of corruption and fraud against the then Deputy President of the ANC, Mr Zuma, was irrational, flawed and illegal. The c...

A Not-So-Firm Recovery Due to Political Economy Uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 11 Oct 2017

• South Africa’s Growth: South Africa’s end-2016 – beginning-2017 technical recession came to a welcoming end during the second quarter of 2017 as the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP recorded a growth rate of 2.5% q/q. We expect a positive quarterly GDP growth rate once again during the th...

In Need of a Confidence Boost
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017

Growth remains fragile, and private sector investment will be the chief determinant of meaningful expansion, but the current political turmoil has led to low confidence among business and the consumer.

The Reserve Bank Defies Market Expectations - No Interest Rate Cut
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Sep 2017

At its previous meeting in July 2017, the SA Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee cut the benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years. Today the MPC decided not to change the repo rate and kept it at 6.75%. South Africa’s inflation has been moderating since the beginning of t...

The Current Account Deficit Rises Despite Further Widening of the Trade Balance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Sep 2017

​The deficit on the South African current account balance widened from R91 billion in the first quarter of 2017 to R110 billion in the second quarter, raising the deficit as a percentage of GDP from 2% to 2.4%. Examining the two main components of the account, a similar trend to that of the first...

Compounding SA Political Economy Uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2017

This year may well turn out to be SA’s most critical year for the country’s short to medium term socio-political trajectories. The ANC is in the midst of electioneering for its December 2017 Elective Congress. Irrespective of the outcome of the Elective Congress, the results will have a defining ...

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