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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The South African Economy Ends its Technical Recession
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Sep 2017

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualized quarterly GDP grew by 2.5% during the second quarter of 2017. This is a welcome outcome, largely expected by the market (as high frequency data was pointing to a positive growth outcome). This means South Africa is out of the technical recession w...

President Zuma Survives the Secret Ballot
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 08 Aug 2017

As I predicted in my yesterday' note, President Zuma survived today's motion of no confidence, held via secret ballots. This outcome,however, is significant in many respects. Firstly, 30 of the ANC MPs sided with the opposition to remove Zuma. This meant the motion received a total of 177 votes. ...

President Zuma faces Secret Ballot at Last
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 07 Aug 2017

Tomorrow, Aug 8th, 2017 is already hard-coded in the annals of SA democratic history for the first ever secret Vote of No Confidence against President Zuma. An hour ago, the Speaker of Parliament announced a historic decision in favour of the 'secret ballot' option- some would say because the Con...

South Africa's Political Cul-De-Sac
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 04 Aug 2017

Another week draws to a close and South Africans' frustration grows on many fronts. Not only is the economy held hostage to a political cul-da-sac and facing a near-certain official junk-grade by the year end, the politics has gotten unbearably confusing and brutal. So, SA is full of tension, bot...

The SARB Implements its First Rate Cut Following an End to its Tightening Cycle
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Jul 2017

The South African Reserve Bank’s MPC announced a 25 basis point cut from 7% (the rate that prevailed since March 2016) to 6.75%, effective from July 21. The Reserve Bank MPC’s decision to cut interest rates came in the wake of the latest inflation figures showing that headline CPI for June ca...

Rising Tide of Opposition to President Zuma
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 18 Jul 2017 · 1 response

Nowadays South Africa seems to be moving towards a point of "President Zuma vs The Rest!" Of course, President Zuma in effect represents a powerful and well-entrenched segment of the ANC's existing control structures such as the numerical dominance at the Party's National Executive Committee (NEC...

Economic Recovery was Indeed Derailed and Confidence Remains Low
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 07 Jul 2017

• South Africa’s Growth: Economic Growth was more than disappointing during the first quarter of 2017 as GDP contracted by 0.7% following a prior contraction of 0.3% in the final quarter of 2016. This means South Africa entered into a technical recession during the first quarter of 2017, the firs...

More Notes on the 2017 ANC Policy Conference: Bereft of Content, Yet Raising Uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jul 2017 · 1 response

This report elaborates on and explains points in the Note on this topic we published yesterday, July 6. The much-awaited African National Congress (ANC) mid-term Policy Conference just wrapped up, and as we mentioned in our Note published yesterday, as anticipated, the Conference was far more ...

The 2017 ANC Policy Conference: Bereft of Content, Yet Raising Uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 06 Jul 2017

The much-awaited ANC mid-term Policy Conference was wrapped up yesterday. As anticipated, the Conference was far more about the critical succession planning than any serious focus on any ideological or socio-economic policy issues. The observers had long argued that no meaningful policy debate co...

The Current Account Deficit Widens in the First Quarter of 2017
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Jun 2017

Despite the South African trade surplus’ being sustained for the second consecutive quarter in Jan-Mar 2017 (registering R57 billion in first quarter of 2017 and R56 billion in the final quarter of 2016), the deficit of the current account balance widened from R76 billion in the last quarter of 2...

South Africa Enters into a Recession during the First Quarter of 2017
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Jun 2017

​South Africa technically moved into a recession as figures released by Statistics South Africa indicate that the economy contracted by 0.7% during the first quarter of 2017. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and since the first quarter’s -0.7% q/q growth ...

President Zuma vs An Agitating South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Jun 2017

May 2017 was not a good month for President Zuma and June started on an even shakier ground. All around him the ground is shifting, yet he remains defiant and somehow confident that this time too he will also be able to beat all odds. Political pundits are beginning to doubt. Some unusual develop...

Zuma Survives via Defiance- And Only Just
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 28 May 2017 · 1 response

This weekend, the National Executive Committee of the ANC has been hard at work, discussing the fate of its president. It is the second time in the past six months that Zuma has had to face his own party's doubts about his leadership suitability. It is reported that 54 of a total of 104 NEC membe...

Inflation Rate Reverts Back into the SARB’s Target Range, and Interest Rates Remain Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 May 2017

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee remains dovish as it announced today that it decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 7%, resulting in the prime interest rate also remaining at 10.5%. This decision by the Bank was mostly expected, especially following the latest i...

Policy Uncertainty Derailing SA Economic Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 04 May 2017

The SA economy is afflicted by structural blockages as well as high political and policy uncertainty. A climate of low confidence for business and consumers is undermining future growth prospects. Currency volatility presents a major upside risk to the inflation outlook; the Reserve Bank is now l...

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