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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa’s current account records a deficit for the first time since Q2 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Sep 2022

Another unwelcome economic metric for South Africa came out today as data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) shows that after recording consecutive surpluses since Q3 2020, the country’s current account balance switched to a deficit in the second quarter of 2022. The balance on the...

South Africa’s economy contracts during Q2 2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2022

South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP contracted by 0.7% during the second quarter of 2022, following the first quarter’s expansion of 1.7% q/q. Despite the recent quarterly contraction, real GDP in H1 2022 was still 1.4% higher than that of the corresponding period in 2021. Today’s GDP figu...

The 2022 ANC Elective Congress and Its Emerging Possible Outcomes
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

As mentioned in our previous reports, 2022 is a critical year for SA’s democratic political evolution. The governing party, The African National Congress (ANC), is heading for its all-important December 2022 National Elective Congress at which the Party’s new leadership structures and its “presid...

Global and domestic shocks to slow the South African economy following the impressive Q1-2022 GDP print
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 10 Aug 2022

• South African growth: Following its notable recovery in 2021, the South African economy once again surprised on the upside during the first quarter of 2022. However, due to numerous negative shocks acting as headwinds, evidence is pointing to a contraction in the second quarter of 2022. • So...

The South African Reserve Bank accelerates policy normalization with a 75-bp interest rate hike
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Jul 2022

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hike the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, the second consecutive increase of an above-25 bp magnitude, following the conclusion of its fourth meeting of the year. As such, the repo rate has increased to 5.5% from 4.75%, while ...

The South African bond market is once again under stress after a good start in 2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2022

As market volatility has intensified globally on the back of a myriad of headwinds including elevated inflation rates that have led to a normalizing of policy rates sooner and at more accelerated rates than markets initially anticipated, the South African bond market, too, is experiencing increas...

Zondo Commission's final report offers predictable but painful verdict on the ANC and its leadership
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Nearly four years of unprecedented and rare public judicial inquiry into the ANC's governance of the country came to an end this week. At long last, and after two postponements, Chief Justice Zondo submitted the final segment of his nearly 5500 pages of investigations into what is now referred to...

South Africa records its seventh consecutive current account surplus during Q1-2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jun 2022

The latest current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2022, South Africa’s current account recorded its eighth surplus since the first quarter of 2020 (with a deficit having been recorded only during Q2 2020). The Q1-2022 surplus, widen...

Positive GDP growth in Q1-2022 as South Africa’s economy shows resilience amid increased global headwinds
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jun 2022

Real quarterly GDP grew by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2022. This was following a contraction of 1.8% q/q and an expansion of 1.4% q/q during the third and fourth quarters of 2021, respectively. However, today’s GDP print points to the South African economy's reverting to pre-pandemic growth pat...

A 50-basis point increase in the repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 May 2022

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is hiking the benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points – its largest since the beginning of 2016. This was following this week’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) third meeting of the year. The repo rate t...

A promising start to South Africa’s economy in 2022 following a robust recovery in 2021, but risks have intensified
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 28 Apr 2022

• South African growth: South Africa’s economy underwent a robust recovery of 4.9% in real GDP during 2021 from 2020’s deep contraction of 6.4%. On top of growth coming from a low base as well as the recovering global economy acting as a tailwind, South Africa’s growth was also propelled by the s...

Another 25-bp increase in the repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Mar 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced yesterday that it is once again raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points – its third consecutive increase. This pushes the repo rate up​ from 4% to 4.25% and the prime lending rate from 7.5% to 7.75%. ...

South Africa registers a record current account surplus in 2021
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Mar 2022

The current account data released yesterday by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that South Africa’s current account recorded a surplus of R120 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. This represented another decline in the record surpluses since H2 2020; from R273 billion, R300 billion and...

The South African economy rebounded strongly in 2021
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2022

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) today indicate that South Africa’s economy grew positively in the final quarter of 2021 following its contraction during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 1.2% q/q, an indication...

Budget 2022 showcases a commodity tax bonanza, presents considerable social spend, and an improved debt trajectory for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Feb 2022

As he delivered his 2022 State of the Nation Address (SONA), President Ramaphosa made it clear that South Africa is currently facing “extreme fiscal constraints”, and this is the backdrop against which Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana yesterday delivered Budget 2022. Throughout his speech, the M...

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