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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The South African economy at the beginning of 2022: end of Covid-19 fourth wave and more vaccinated, but low confidence persists
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 11 Feb 2022

• South African Tourism: Tourism is an important sector of the South African economy (it contributed 3.7% to total GDP in 2019) and it has been one of the sectors most adversely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. Encouragingly, there was an increase in gross travel receipts in the third quarter...

President Ramaphosa's Statement of National Address (SONA) 2022: More of the Same Correct Analysis, Promises of Reforms, and holding the fiscal line
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022 · 1 response

In his 2-hour SONA, President Ramaphosa delivered a detailed economy-centric speech to the Parliament. Whilst reiterating his administration's commitment to the Constitutional Democracy, he articulated his market-friendly economic ideology more crisply than ever before. "Government does not creat...

South Africa’s political future and the ANC’s leadership challenges
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Feb 2022

The greatest threat facing South Africa and its future, that is, besides the obvious current threat of the Covid-19 pandemic facing the entire world, is poor governance and leadership misfit. The majority of South Africa’s population that had lived under Apartheid’s atrocious conditions suddenly ...

The South African Reserve Bank starts 2022 where it ended off in 2021 – by hiking interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jan 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met this week for its first 2022 meeting and announced its interest rate decision yesterday. In line with the Reuters' poll of economists’ consensus, the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. As such, t...

The ANC acknowledges the deterioration of the Party during its 110th anniversary celebrations, but will it enact the necessary reforms?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jan 2022

In sticking with tradition, and despite South Africa’s fourth wave of Covid-19, fueled by the Omicron variant, the governing African National Congress (ANC) had its annual celebration of the founding of the party (January 8, 1912). Since 1972, the party has used these annual celebrations as an op...

The State Capture Zondo Commission Report is out- finally
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

The year began with a bang on the South Africa's political economy stage. This is a critical year for SA's medium term political outlook as the ANC is heading for its mid-term elective congress in December 2022 at which the next leadership of the Party will be elected, and by implication the next...

South Africa records its fifth consecutive current account surplus in Q3
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2021

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2021, South Africa’s current account registered its fifth consecutive surplus since the third quarter of 2020. The surplus however narrowed from R311 billion in the second quarter ...

South Africa’s recovery momentum faltered in Q3 amid civil unrest and the third wave of Covid-19 infections
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Dec 2021

As we had expected and predicted in previous reports, the South African economy contracted during the third quarter of 2021, with real annualized quarterly GDP declining by 1.5%. This was following four consecutive quarters of positive growth since Q3 2020, with growth rates of 0.9% q/q and 1.1% ...

South Africa's local government elections augur tectonic democratic political changes
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021 · 1 response

Over the past 48 hours, South Africa's local government councils have scrambled to meet the constitutional deadline for the establishment of their municipal governing structures. As reported before, the dominant African National Congress (ANC) experienced a much harsher than expected voter backla...

The South African Reserve Bank starts policy normalization
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Nov 2021

As we had anticipated, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.5% to 3.75% during its final scheduled meeting of the year. As a result, the prime lending rate also increased from 7% to 7.25%. P...

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement presents a slightly better fiscus, but it may be only a temporarily relief
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Nov 2021

Having been contending with the Covid-19 pandemic for over a year and a half, the South African government, like most governments globally, has been juggling countless needs pressing on its coffers, while at the same time attempting to contain public debt to eventually bring it down to prudent le...

South Africa's 2021 local elections: worryingly low voter turnout and the sharp rise of coalitions
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Nov 2021

South Africa held its latest local (municipal) elections on November 1, elections that have been declared “free and fair” by the Electoral Commission of South Africa, but turned out to have had one of the lowest voter participation rates of the country’s young democracy. Only 12.3 million South A...

South Africa’s recovery is driven by the commodity price boom– but tapering off
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 01 Nov 2021

Households: South African households took a big hit from the Covid-19 pandemic, and domestic demand has expectedly been adversely affected.Even though household consumption expenditure has undergone a relatively fast recovery, downside risks remain. Unemployment: Unemployment once again reache...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged despite the stronger economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Sep 2021

Continuing with its trend of not altering interest rates since it cut them by 25 basis points at its July 2020 meeting, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) once again voted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%. With the repo rate at 3.5%, the ...

Exports boost South Africa’s 2Q2021 current account balance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Sep 2021

Commodity prices have been reaching record highs in 2021, as global economic activity slowly rebounds. For resource-rich countries such as South Africa, this news is well received. As expected, the current account surplus widened in the second quarter of 2021 – to R343 billion in 2Q2021 from R261...

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