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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Strong supply-side performance, weak demand side
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jul 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Since April I have been suggesting that China’s GDP growth rate in 2020 would probably be around 2-3 percent, well above most other estimates. As I expected, second quarter growth was stronger than most other analysts predicted, and I think we wi...

Beijing’s new Covid-19 outbreak
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jun 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • China’s gradual economic recovery from the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic was interrupted two weeks ago by reports of a new outbreak in Beijing. I have no especial expertise in epidemiology, but given the extent of Beijing’s reaction, I do not expec...

China webinar featuring Michael Pettis - Without a target, what will impel growth?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Jun 2020

China webinar featuring Michael Pettis - Without a target, what will impel growth?​ Michael Pettis discusses the impact of the coronavirus on China's official growth targeting and its real economy.

Beijing abandons a 2020 GDP growth target
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 May 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Li Keqiang announced that Beijing would not set a GDP growth target for 2020. • If this represents a real change in economic policy-making going forward, this would be a good sign that Beijing is ready to let go of a development policy that condemns ...

Q1 GDP growth was down nearly 10% from last quarter
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Apr 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The terrible first quarter numbers that China posted were not unexpected. What did interest me was to try to understand the extent of the increase in household savings available for what Chinese social media has taken to calling “revenge” consumption....

Limits to China’s fiscal stimulus
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The debate about 2020 growth expectations continues to intensify in policymaking circles, with CICC reducing its 2020 GDP growth forecast last week from 6.1 percent to 2.6 percent. • While many officials continue to call for China to return as quickl...

Is China going to be forced to lower its growth target?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 09 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The IMF is now projecting a 5.5 percent GDP growth rate for 2020, down from the 6.0 percent it projected in January. Officials there say that they expect growth in the first and second quarters to be so bad that it would become all but impossible to...

Rethinking growth in 2020
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Feb 2020 · 5 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • COVID-19 will probably not reduce China’s GDP growth in 2020 but will instead shift growth from “high quality” to “low quality” areas as the government compensates later this year for any slowdown by increasing discretionary spending. This of course h...

What impact the coronavirus?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jan 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The Wuhan coronavirus will have a significant impact on the underlying growth rate of the Chinese economy, but this will not show up as lower GDP growth. It will show up as faster credit growth. • The ultimate impact of the coronavirus is likely to b...

China and the impossible trinity
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jan 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Capital flight continues to be a major issue for Beijing, with the “Errors and omissions” account at an all-time high. • The central bank wants to maintain relatively easy monetary conditions as it tries to work its way through China’s debt burden, b...

The December Economic Work Conference
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 11 Dec 2019 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: It is too early to say for sure, but it looks like the Economic Work Conference for later this month will settle on a GDP growth target of “around 6 percent”, which I interpret to mean 5.8 percent to 6.0 percent. There has been an enormous amount of deb...

New Delhi blocks Beijing on RCEP
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Nov 2019

​Special points to highlight in this issue: While India’s rejection of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement at the summit meeting in Bangkok seems to have come as a surprise, as the main trade deficit member in a world of weak demand it is hard to see how India woul...

Xi Jinping versus Deng Xiaoping
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: Although I personally do not expect anything new to come out of the Fourth Plenum, currently in session, that suggests that there will be any change in Xi’s approach to leadership, I can assure my reader that I would have no way of knowing whether or...

What’s going on in the Chinese balance of payments?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Sep 2019 · 5 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * For the first half of 2019 “Errors and omissions”, in the balance of payment data, are higher than they have ever been in China: USD 131 billion. This is equal to nearly two-thirds of the recorded trade surplus, and is nearly 50 percent higher than...

Supply-side solutions for demand-side problems
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue:​ * Although China’s GDP growth has continued to slow quite dramatically, Beijing doesn’t yet seem to have been panicked into planning a heavy stimulus. Although I do think we can expect a mild stimulus in the next month or two, I continue to believe t...

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