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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Initial signs of (modest) slowing demand
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Jun 2021

We estimate that private consumption demand declined modestly in June, following strong growth YTD. Shekel appreciation has erased the increase in import prices in shekel terms. The PMI is reflecting rapid growth in both export and domestic orders; raw materials prices have also increased. The ne...

Initial signs of (modest) slowing demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Jun 2021

Highlights: Some initial signs of slowing demand We estimate that credit card purchases declined by 2%-3% m/m (sa) in June, from looking at the weekly data provided through 22.6. On the other hand, the PMI increased by 3.5 points to 56.1 in May as both domestic and export orders increased rapidly...

Inflation surprised slightly on the downside in May
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Jun 2021

Highlights Inflation surprised slightly on the downside in May: * Inflation reached 1.5% y/y and core inflation 1.0% y/y. * The main surprise came from clothing prices, with a modest seasonal price increase. This suggests that the seasonal price decline in the summer months will also...

Macro (shekel) fundamentals improve in Q121
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Jun 2021

Highlights: Inflation surprised slightly on the downside in May. Inflation reached 1.5% y/y and core inflation 1.0% y/y. The main surprise came from clothing prices, with a modest seasonal price increase. This suggests that the seasonal price decline in the summer months will also be more modest....

Inflation in May comes in slightly below expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jun 2021

The CPI in May increased by 0.4% m/m and by 1.5% y/y (following 0.8% in April), slightly below market expectations of 0.5% m/m (and ours). Core inflation (the CPI exc. energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 1.0% y/y from 0.45% last month. The downward surprise in May came from clothing prices w...

Lieberman moves to cancel government furlough support
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Jun 2021

The new government was sworn in today, and we expect fiscal policy to be responsible. The fiscal deficit is trending lower on strong tax revenues and lower emergency Covid aid. Trade data reflects strong growth both in exports and imports. We expect May’s CPI to reach 0.5% m/m on strong seasonali...

The CA surplus increases surprisingly
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2021

The CA surplus increased in Q121 to 5.85bn USD from 5.5bn in Q420 (sa) and 4.3bn one year ago. The increase of the trade deficit by 0.7bn USD was offset by a similar increase in the service account surplus while the secondary income (transfers) increased by 0.4bn. Many economists had expected a c...

Lieberman moves to cancel government furlough support
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Jun 2021

Politics: The new “change” government was sworn in yesterday. We think this government is a positive development for fiscal policy and stimulating growth. The new Minister of Finance is moving rapidly to cancel all emergency furlough supports for those under age 45. This will support labor partic...

The new government is expected to be fiscally responsible
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Jun 2021

We view the new government as a positive development for the economy and fiscal policy (see the detailed analysis in our report). Broad unemployment has declined and further progress is expected when government support is reduced.

The new government is expected to be fiscally responsible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jun 2021

Highlights:Politics: The new “change” government will be sworn in by next week, barring any unforeseen developments. We think this government is a positive development for fiscal policy and stimulating growth.Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Broad unemployment declined t...

Israel's new government likely to support growth but remain fiscally responsible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jun 2021

Last night, Yesh Atid (Lapid) announced to the President that a coalition has been formed making up 61 mandates (out of 120) consisting of eight parties, including one Arab party. Although it appears like a done deal, we cannot rule out some surprises (deserters from the right-wing party Yamina) ...

Hi tech exports continue to support shekel appreciation
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Hi-tech service exports and investments continue to expand rapidly, supportive of shekel appreciation. Private consumption has rebounded rapidly since the economy opened up.

Rates remain unchanged with a more upbeat tone
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Jun 2021

Rates remained on hold yesterday and the announcement was rather upbeat, noting the rapid opening up of the economy while the escalation in violence had only a limited impact on activity. There is a significant increase in private consumption since the opening up of the economy. GDP numbers in Q1...

Hi tech exports continue to support shekel appreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 May 2021

Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Hi-tech service exports increased by 28% saar in Q121. Credit card purchases increased by 18% from January to April. Initial data for May point to a modest contraction (sa). Consumer confidence remained elevated in the 1st half of May, sl...

With a ceasefire in place, markets will focus on internal politics
ISRAEL · Report · 24 May 2021

Following the cessation of hostilities, the economy is expected to expand rapidly, but internal political uncertainty remains. A closer look at Q121 GDP numbers reveals strong export growth, as well as investments in equipment and private consumption (excluding new vehicles). Recent indicators po...

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