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GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediation on Gaza progresses, PIF announced auto deals at FII, Eni signs LNG deal with Qatar, Egypt seeks another $5bn deposit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IEA revised down its 2050 oil & gas projections but sees the Middle East’s share growing. * The casualty count rose sharply in Gaza, including nearly 3,000 children, and supplies have run low. * Qatar mediated the rel...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF debut sukuk, S&P Positive on RAK, Qatar-Shell LNG deal, Dubai Q2 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil is back to $93 as the war risk premium offsets global economic concerns. * The UAE and Saudi leaders had a rare meeting on the sidelines of the GCC-ASEAN summit. * Qatar remained active in hostage mediation effo...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC hikes oil forecasts, IMF forecasts surpluses for most, Qatar-France LNG deal, Gulf diplomacy continues on Gaza war
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Oct 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were heavily involved in diplomacy related to the Hamas-Israel war. * OPEC hiked its baseline 2045 oil demand forecast to 116m b/d, above its previous bull scenario. * The IMF forecasts fis...

Gaza-Israel war: Implications for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Oct 2023 · 1 response

* Normalization probably factored into Hamas’s motivations but wasn’t the primary driver. * Saudi normalization in the near term is now much less likely. * Qatar may be able to mediate a prisoner exchange, but ceasefire talks don't look imminent. * GCC-Iran reproachment will stall, not least b...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops on recession fears, Saudi hikes spending and bids for World Cup, Q2 non-oil GDP surges in Abu Dhabi but not Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil plummeted by over 10% because of worries about the global economy. * Saudi Arabia hiked its spending plans sharply and now sees deficits of -2% of GDP in 2023-26. * JP Morgan is considering including Saudi sukuk in it...

SAUDI ARABIA: Deficits projected to return due to higher spending plans
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 03 Oct 2023

* The Saudi ministry of finance published its usual pre-budget statement and mid-year performance review. * The government now projects deficits in 2023-26 whereas previously it was targeting surpluses. * Projected expenditure has been revised up by 13% on average in 2023-25. * Revenue is only...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades Oman, Dubai partly repays 2009 bailout, GCC-Pakistan FTA inked, Bahrainis killed on Saudi-Yemen border
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Sep 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The GCC inked its first FTA since 2009, with Pakistan. Others are pending with the UK, EU and China. * The Kuwait-Iraq maritime border spat prevented a meeting of GCC foreign ministers with Iraq and Iran at the UN. * Bahrai...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi and UAE raise debt, Bahrain’s H1 deficit at -4.7% of GDP, Oman’s non-oil GDP flat in Q2, Fox interviews MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Sep 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The US-Iran prisoner swap took place in Qatar but there was no nuclear file breakthrough yet. * Saudi Arabia is raising a $11bn 10-year loan, coordinated by ICBC, at +100bp. * S&P affirmed Saudi Arabia and forecasts a sma...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises in tight market, Sharjah issues sukuk, Oman’s current account returns to surplus, Houthis talk peace in Riyadh
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Sep 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rose to $94 as forecasts point to a potential Q4 supply gap of over 3m b/d. * The IEA and OPEC clashed over longer-term forecasts; the IEA expects demand to peak this decade. * Turkey criticized plans for an I...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi oil cuts extended, UAE legalizes gambling, Qatar's population rebounds, Kuwait appoints finance minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Sep 2023 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent hits $90 after Saudi Arabia extended its additional cuts by three months. * Saudi GDP growth slowed to 1.2% in Q2 on oil cuts, although the non-oil private sector accelerated to 5.8%. * The IMF’s Saudi Arabia Articl...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises despite Iranian surge, Qatar has Q2 fiscal surplus, Qatar’s GDP strong in Q1 (bar construction), Bahrain prison hunger strike continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Sep 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rose to $88, despite a surge in Iranian output, on expectations of longer Saudi cuts. * Another Saudi gigaproject was announced, Marafy, a waterfront redevelopment in Jeddah. * The Saudi industry minister visi...

GULF WEEKLY: BRICS invites Saudi & UAE, UAE sees strong demand for T-sukuk, IMF concludes Kuwait Article IV
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Aug 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * BRICS invited Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join (but not Kuwait and Bahrain, which also applied). * The UAE and Saudi Arabia sent Ukraine congratulations on its independence day. * Iran’s foreign minister said MBS has acce...

The Sultan woos the Sheikhs: Turkey’s improved GCC relations bolster external financing
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Aug 2023

This report is a joint publication co-authored by Justin Alexander and our Turkey political analyst, Atilla Yesilada. * Turkey received a $5bn Saudi deposit in March and possibly undisclosed support from UAE and/or Qatar that averted a currency crisis ahead of the May elections and helped keep...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi extends debt maturity, Iranian FM meets MBS, UAE trades oil in rupees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia extended the average maturity of its local sukuk in a $10bn buy-back and issuance. * PIF could get a cash windfall of up to $8bn if SoftBank buys its Vision Fund holdings in Arm. * Iran’s foreign minister vis...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco’s $10bn performance dividend, China joins Ukraine talks in Jeddah, Dubai GDP up 2.8% in Q1
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Aug 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil touched $88 on signs of a 2m b/d supply gap in Q3. * A US-Iranian prisoner exchange deal mediated by Qatar seems to be moving forward. * Aramco brought forward its $10bn quarterly performance dividend, which could bal...

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