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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

SAUDI: Royal appointed as energy minister
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Sep 2019

At the end of a dramatic week of changes in the Saudi energy sector, Abdulaziz bin Salman al Saud, the half-brother of the crown prince, Mohamad bin Salman (MBS), was appointed as energy minister, the first time a royal has held this portfolio. Khalid al-Falih was replaced as energy minister afte...

OMAN: ​Fiscal deep dive 2: Governance vacuum threatens fiscal reforms
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 01 Sep 2019 · 1 response

With the exception of VAT, most of the easy fiscal adjustment has already happened. Further significant and painful reforms are unlikely to be implemented due to the current absence of strong leadership. Alternatives to reform are limited, asset sales are unsustainable and regional support has be...

Gulf weekly: Rouhani-Trump could meet, Abu Dhabi may issue and Aramco looks to Tokyo
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Sep 2019

It was another busy week politically in the region, with a further uptick in tensions in Lebanon and Yemen (not to mention Palestine, in the run-up to Israeli elections and the Kushner peace plan), but also unexpected openness to a possible US-Iran detente (we're skeptics). At a time when regiona...

OMAN: Fiscal deep dive 1: H1 performance won’t be sustained
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 30 Aug 2019

H1 fiscal numbers were surprisingly good thanks to one-off gains including the lagged impact of the 2017 income tax law and higher 2018 oil prices, a surge in investment income, and the sale of a stake in Khazzan gasfield. However, this will not be sustained in H2, when seasonal trends mean there...

Saudi unlikely to let Lebanon default (yet)
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 29 Aug 2019 · 1 response

Lebanese bonds and CDS are under rising pressure as tensions with Israel have added to the country’s domestic woes.We put a probability of Gulf support at about 70%, most likely from Saudi Arabia. The current sell-off could offer a good opportunity to buy into Lebanese bonds, which would partiall...

​A Trump-Rouhani meeting is unlikely to resolve Iran crisis
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 26 Aug 2019

There has been growing talk today of a Trump-Rouhani meeting in the aftermath of the surprise appearance of Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif on the sidelines of the G7 summit yesterday. Macron, who had spoken to both presidents, said that the conditions are right for a meeting, potentially wi...

​Gulf weekly: Kuwait's emir has a health scare
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Aug 2019

The Gulf has begun to wake up from the long summer and Eid holidays. Notable policy developments over the last week included an extension of customs duties in the UAE (a move other Gulf states are likely to emulate) and further moves towards the Aramco IPO. Tension with Iran and in Yemen continue...

Tighter Iran sanctions should boost oil prices in 2020
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 23 Aug 2019

Iran sanctions will take 1m b/d off the market in 2020 and its response will increase the geopolitical risk premium. The combination of these factors should boost oil prices to an average of $65-70 in 2020. This is a slightly out-of-consensus view, as most forecasters see prices as flat or fallin...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco call and regional tensions disturb Eid holidays
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2019

Welcome to our first weekly economic and political update for the Gulf. Last week was quiet on the domestic economic front, given the Eid al-Adha holidays, which meant that government departments were closed all week and local markets were also closed for most of the week. However, there were sti...

YEMEN: Conflict in Aden might help end Yemen’s civil war, benefiting the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2019

Counterintuitively, a new axis of conflict in Yemen, which saw southern separatists capture Aden last weekend, might help end the civil war. This is because it could be easier for the separatists than the government to find accommodation with the Houthi rebels, who control the northern highlands....

SAUDI: Aramco H1 results build hype for a likely IPO in H2 2020, but dividend policy remains vague
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2019

Net income was down 12% on a 4% fall in oil price and a 7% rise in opex. However, transfers to the government were up 11% to $117bn due to an unexplained special dividend. Many of the initial barriers to an IPO have diminished, and much of the groundwork has been done, so we therefore expect it t...

SAUDI: Latest data show the economy remains firm as fiscal easing increases but global headwinds will continue to weigh on equities
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2019

July PMI data shows the non-oil economy remains strong, consistent with the latest Q2 fiscal data, which revealed a deficit that had widened to USD9bn.The authorities are pursuing accommodative fiscal policy to prop up growth despite a global oil demand shock weighing on oil prices. However, refo...

Fed cuts are a small but welcome relief for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 01 Aug 2019

GCC central banks have mainly followed the Fed lower, in keeping with usual behaviourThe rate cuts come as a small but welcome relief for fiscal policy and to support credit growth, after a number of years of rate hikes amidst slowing economic growthHighly leveraged economies and sectors will be ...

​A Neutral Zone restart is coming and means more to Kuwait than Saudi
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jul 2019

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are edging towards restarting shared oil fields suspended for over four years due to bilateral disputes, which overlap with wider tensions with Iran and Qatar. Until OPEC quotas are lifted, a restart would be offset by cuts at other fields, but the spare capacity and expec...

BAHRAIN: Protests after Shia executions unlikely to spark change
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 30 Jul 2019

In the last few days Bahrain has seen the most extensive protests in two years following the executions of three men on saturday, including two young Shia. The anger is likely to lead to further clashes between protestors and police but there are currently no indications of an escalation towards ...

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