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UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

Primaries suggest a defeat of the government in November
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2021

As of this writing, with more than 98% of the votes scrutinized in most provinces, including the City of Buenos Aires, and almost 97% in the Province of Buenos Aires, the results of the primary elections are final enough to conclude that the ruling coalition, Frente de Todos (FdT), suffered a con...

Macro outlook ahead of the elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Aug 2021

Contrary to former elections, some of the key electoral positions will be defined through the primaries. This is a change from former years, when the primaries were usually mere “national polls”. The composition of the pre-candidates for Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) in the City and Province of B...

​Inflation will remain high and the recovery weak in 2022, even if the government can avoid another debt default
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 19 Jul 2021

Any economic forecast for the Argentinian economy needs to start by assessing the possibility of avoiding another debt default over the next two years. A default on the dollar-denominated debt would adopt the form of going into arrears with the IMF, thereby blocking the possibility of accessing f...

Three economically dangerous electoral weapons
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Jun 2021

In an increasingly hostile social and political climate, the government has started to worry about the coming electoral events. These include the simultaneous and obligatory open primaries (PASO, Primarias Abiertas Simultaneas y Obligatorias) on September 12 and the midterm election on November 1...

Electoral politics may induce a default on IMF debt despite a significant improvement in the fiscal and external accounts
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Jun 2021

Unexpectedly, the fiscal accounts came in significantly better than projected in the 2021 budget. The primary deficit during the first four months was 192 billion pesos, which represents only 12% of the primary deficit budgeted for the year. This result was the consequence of an impressive 93% in...

Winter is coming - a quantitative review of COVID
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 May 2021

Over the last year, we have been analyzing the economic and political impact of the pandemic, anticipating the scope of this global shock on the local economy. In this report, amid a severe second wave, with an erratic vaccination program being implemented, we add a complementary question: How mu...

Second wave of infections aggravates social and political conflict
ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The decision of the Economic Minister in February to slow the pace of devaluation on the official exchange market in order to reduce the rate of inflation has failed so far. Actually, in March the rate of inflation jumped to 4.8% from 3.6%, and some early indicators show that it is not falling in...

Slower rate of devaluation to repress inflation
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 04 Mar 2021

The recovery of the economy since May 2020, after the sharp decline of the previous four months, was faster than previously forecast. In November we had forecast a decline of 12%, similar to the decline estimated by the government in the presentation of the 2020 Budget to Congress. In 2020, the a...

​Alberto Fernandez's Kirchnerist speech during the opening session of Congress
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

President Alberto Fernandez (AF) gave a long yet carefully structured speech during the Congress’s opening session. He reviewed his government’s achievements, defended it from what he called “malicious criticism that responds to unspeakable interests of concentrated economic powers”, and made sev...

​January Trade Balance surprised on the upside
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2021

Most market attention will be set today on Alberto Fernandez’s speech during the opening sessions of Congress, which is expected to happen at noon, local time. This said, in this opportunity, we would like to review January’s trade balance published Friday afternoon. Even though the December to F...

​Government launches Economic and Social Council
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Feb 2021

Last Friday, President Alberto Fernandez announced the formal creation of an Economic and Social Council (ESC). It had been part of AF's political promises at the onset of his mandate but was delayed by the pandemic’s urgency. This interdisciplinary body, presided by National Secretary of Stra...

Rising inflation: King Canute´s new tide
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

The government’s attempt to stop inflation with price controls, export regulations and wage agreements, while simultaneously financing the fiscal deficit with expanding monetary aggregates and rising BCRA debt, reminds us of the legend of King Canute and his futile order to the sea, to stop the r...

​"Cristinomics" conditions the IMF negotiations
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Jan 2021

The government has always been vague regarding the economic model it has in mind or how it would achieve its goal of simultaneously supporting domestic consumption while remaining a competitive exporter. In short, how can it spur domestic absorption while seeking a balance of payment inflows to f...

The president’s lack of leadership, and the VP’s authoritarian and leftist stance, feeds economic pessimism
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Key health and economic indicators published after we posted our last Quarterly forecast show some improvement. The number of COVID-19 infections fell in November, and the first two weeks of December. GDP and employment preliminary estimates by INDEC for Q3 show a stronger-than-expected recovery....

Argentina 2021: a slow recovery and higher inflation
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 27 Nov 2020

Our forecast for the Argentine economy in 2021 differs significantly from the official forecast in the 2021 Budget Law. We forecast a slower recovery of GDP growth and a significantly higher rate of inflation than that projected by the authorities. At the same time, we expect a slightly lower pri...