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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Federal budget in surplus in 2M22, amendments to come
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

Minfin reported that in 2M22 the federal budget surplus exceeded R0.4 trln as revenues and expenditures reached R4.2 trln (16.8% of the annual plan) and R3.8 trln (16.0% pf the plan). The government collected R1.8 trln in oil-and-gas revenues and reg rest of R2.4 trln came from the non-oil-and-ga...

Russia avoids default on Sovereign Eurobonds
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

Yesterday the Finance Ministry had to pay down coupons on two issues of Sovereign Eurobonds with maturity in 2023 and 2043 worth $117 mln in aggregate. It sent a correspondent order to paying agent on Monday, but it was not clear whether it will be executed or not given the “freeze” of accounts o...

Special rate of inflation amid the special military operation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation in seven days ending on March 11 reached 2.09%, and the MTD inflation on the same day was at 3.38%. As a result, the YTD figure jumped to 5.62%. Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, which according to the country’s authorities goes in line with the plan,...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2022 · 1 response

As the oil price moved up, the ruble fell against major currencies amid massively increased demand for FX, while the supply of FX looked insufficient to match the demand. Even though the CBR reported that the current account surplus in 2M22 reached $39.2 bn and the trade surplus widened to $46.2 ...

Russia’s inflation accelerates in February and early March, higher numbers yet to come
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that the m-o-m inflation in February reached 1.17%, which brought the y-o-y and YTD inflation to 9.15% and 2.17%. In seven days ending March 4, inflation w-o-w was reported at 2.22%, and the MTD inflation reached 1.26% as Rosstat split the w-o-w inflation between the two months. ...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: The point of no return is reached
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Mar 2022

It looks as though the pandemic has become less of an issue as Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate fell to below 70K on March 8 from around 200K a month before. People almost stopped getting vaccinated, and the relative unimportance of pandemic-related issues became even more vivid for ordinar...

No light at the end of the tunnel
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Mar 2022 · 1 response

At this stage, it is hard, if not impossible, to envisage more or less accurately what may happen this year with the Russian economy, as even while writing a relatively short note, the news keeps coming one after another. A growing number of foreign companies suspend their trade operations with R...

Russian equity market is frozen
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2022

The decision of Western countries to freeze assets of the Russian Central Bank, which has been agreed over weekend, became the “surprise” for the local authorities and caused them to implement counter steps. For example, international investors were prohibited from receiving any payments in the f...

Russian macro: a Sisyphean task
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Feb 2022

As the Western sanctions continue to mount, it now becomes clear that Russia’s ruling elite didn’t consider various scenarios of how the attack on Ukraine could develop and bounce back on Russian citizens. Such an outcome was difficult to expect as the attack seemed so irrational and dangerous fo...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2022 · 1 response

Russia’s war in Ukraine hit the markets badly all across the board. The impact on the economy is yet to be seen as consumer behavior may change again amid a shock the nation (at least part of it) felt on February 24. The already imposed sanctions on Russia will obviously squeeze the country’s fin...

​Sovereign Debt: New Sanctions will cover secondary market, but only for newly issued paper
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2022 · 1 response

Western countries continue to introduce new sanctions after the decision of Russian authorities to recognize the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk republics. Yesterday and today both US and EU authorities announced a new portion of restrictions regarding sovereign debt. To remind,...

Russia's risk to remain elevated
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022

As expected in the previous reports of the Russia Economics series, the Russian markets remained volatile in February. The ruble traveled shortly to above R/$ 80 territory last night while markets were awaiting the political decisions in the aftermath of the country’s Security Council meeting. As...

GDP up by 4.7% in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2022

The Russian GDP reached nearly R130.1 trln in 2021 and was up by 4.7%. These numbers are higher than was expected earlier, however, permanent upward revisions of selected historical data during the year prompted that surprises from Rosstat could not be ruled out. Still, the currently available qu...

The Russian market: between a rock and a hard place
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Feb 2022

The Russian markets have been hit strongly in recent months. The situation became even more colorful as inflation accelerated not only in Russia, but also globally. This added extra flavor and intrigue. As Russian inflation reached 8.7% in January, while that in the US hit 7.5%, not too different...

The Federal budget posted a surplus in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget revenues reached nearly R2.1 trln in January and were nearly 39% higher than in January 2021. These revenues accounted for 8.3% of the annual plan, i.e., exactly one-twelfth of it. Note, that tax collection in January is traditionally low a...

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