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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2024

The ruble strengthened in the first weeks of 2024 to R/$87-88 from R/$90-91 at the end of 2023. Since January 15, the CBR has increased FX sales from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) from the expected R12.6 bn to R16.7 bn daily. The CBR had to adjust its plans amid a lack of federal budget revenues...

Federal budget execution numbers confirm the economy is adaptable enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2024

A few days ago, the Ministry announced preliminary federal budget execution numbers, suggesting that the macroeconomic policy helped the economy weather several storms caused by external pressure. Soon after the relations between Russia and the West appeared broken about two years ago, we mention...

Russian macro: Revised GDP stats hint the economy may accelerate in 2024 as its growth model evolves
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jan 2024

Rosstat reported that Russia's GDP grew by 3.0% y-o-y in 9M23, which looked better than one could have expected at the beginning of last year. In 3Q23, GDP increased by 5.5%, up from 4.9% in 2Q23. The nation’s economy contracted by 1.8% in 1Q23 (all numbers are y-o-y). At the same time Rosstat re...

An upward 2021-2022 GDP revision by Rosstat
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2024

At the very end of 2023, Rosstat announced it had revised some historical data, such as GDP accounts for 2021 and 2022. Having slightly reappraised the nominal accounts, the agency also changed growth numbers. The new data suggest that in 2021, the Russian GDP grew by 5.9% (5.6% previously), and ...

Economic growth steady in November
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

Rosstat reported that the economy was on the same track as in the previous months as the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for GDP covering about 60% of the national economy) grew by 5.1% y-o-y - both in November and 11M23. The industrial output grew by 3.6% y-o-y in 11M23 only as...

Russian macro: Economy growing on a stable external balance and currency “detoxification”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Dec 2023

As inflation accelerated and the CBR raised its key rate by 100 bps to 16%, Rosstat published 3Q23 statistics on the production side of GDP that confirmed that the Russian economy expanded by 5.5% y-o-y that quarter. The agency also mentioned that the national economy grew by 3.0% in 9M23. As Oct...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

The ruble appeared less volatile in the past couple of weeks - it fluctuated close to the R/$90 mark within a relatively narrow band. However, we see some room for its weakening in the coming months as average monthly federal budget expenditures will grow next year. Budgetary spending traditional...

The current account surplus narrows in narrows in November amid lower oil price
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

The Russian Central Bank reported that, according to its flash estimates, the current account surplus narrowed in November to $4.3 bn. In October it was $4.9bn and in 3Q23 - $17.0 bn. The trade surplus also narrowed in November and reached $8.4 bn (in October, it was $9.4 bn). The regulator just ...

Russian macro: Budget 2024—generous spending, revenue collection challenging but manageable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Dec 2023

The 11M23 federal budget execution statistics confirmed that revenue flow remained stable, and in 2023, as a whole, will exceed not only the initial formally approved budget but also the amended one used as a base for the 2024 budgetary planning (although they didn’t differ much). The government ...

The 11M23 federal budget surplus narrows before the December spending spree
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the 11M23 federal budget deficit narrowed to R878 bn from R1.235 trln in 10M23. The deficit’s peak was recorded in 4M23, at R3.049 trln. As monthly spending moderated since then, while revenue growth accumulated strength since May, the monthly budget balance ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

The situation on the FX market has changed during the last couple of weeks. After some period of strengthening, which was triggered by a fresh version of partial capital controls, such as compulsory sales of export earnings introduced in mid-October, the ruble started to weaken and almost reached...

The economy continued to expand in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2023

Rosstat reported that the Russian economy continued to grow in October as the output of the five basic sectors grew y-o-y by 5.9% and 7.7% in 10M23 and October alone. However, as happened previously on many occasions, this growth appeared uneven across various segments. Agriculture grew by 1.9% a...

OFZ: Temporary improvement
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Recent weeks have been very successful for the OFZ market. Despite the CBR's key-rate hike to 15% at the end of October, the yield growth in government bonds turned out to be limited. At the same time, demand increased in the primary market, which allowed Minfin to boost borrowing. Apparently, in...

Russian macro: The show must go on—growth above expectation amid decoupling from the West
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Nov 2023

The country's economic situation looks decent as some key macroeconomic data exceeded most optimistic expectations. It turned out that GDP grew slightly above 2.9% y-o-y in 9M23 as Rosstat reported that it increased by 5.5% y-o-y in 3Q23. Such quarterly growth was well above expectations. Even th...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

As the federal budget was in surplus for the last three months, it acted as a liquidity absorber from the money market, which pushed short-term interest rates above the key rate. Since mid-November RUONIA fluctuated within the 15.01-15.08% range, while earlier in November it was more than 50 bps ...

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