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COVID-19 hitting hard – but Piñera’s ratings rise
CHILE · Forecast · 14 Apr 2020

COVID-19 is taking a heavy toll on the Chilean economy. Though we still lack hard data, it seems clear that this will be the worst economic event since the financial crisis of 1982. We hope the crisis will be short-lived, and that we’ll see recovery in H2. But at this point, no one can be sure. ...

COVID-19 strikes Chile
CHILE · Report · 19 Mar 2020

The COVID-19 crisis has rapidly taken over the political and social scene, overshadowing expectations that spring would be dominated by the campaign for an April 26th constitutional plebiscite. Virus cases have climbed from 60 to 238 over the past few days. As elsewhere, it is hard to predic...

Central Bank of Chile extraordinary measures
CHILE · In Brief · 17 Mar 2020

Following other central banks around the globe, in an extraordinary monetary policy meeting the Board of the Central Bank of Chile yesterday decided to lower the monetary policy interest rate by 75 bp to 1%. The decision was supported by three of the five board members (President Mario Marcel, Vi...

Chile: Winter is coming
CHILE · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

The phrase, made popular by the series Game of Thrones, relates to the call to be prepared for the hardships of winter. Although most of Chile is still enjoying warm summer temperatures, the beginning of March, associated with students returning to class, is a reminder that winter is indeed comin...

Consequences of the awakening
CHILE · Report · 24 Jan 2020 · 1 response

The effects of the protest that began on October 18th on the Chilean economy haven’t been as devastating as we’d feared. November’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) was positive, given the context. The seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC increased 0.9% in monthly terms, after falling...

Chile’s awakening
CHILE · Report · 17 Dec 2019 · 1 response

The economic effects of the protests that began on October 18th have been devastating. The social situation in Chile makes any projection highly uncertain. The Imacec in October was as unfavorable as it was surprising. Considering that the demonstrations affected only 12 days of the month, ou...

CHILE: Piñera makes more promises
CHILE · In Brief · 11 Dec 2019 · 1 response

As part of the continuing attempts to respond to the long list of political and social grievances that Chile’s protests have brought to the fore, President Sebastián Piñera announced a third package of reforms, this time aimed at combatting ‘abuse’. He promised to forgive debt and interest for ex...

On the Central Bank intervention in the FX market
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Nov 2019

Yesterday the Central Bank of Chile announced a foreign exchange intervention plan of up to US$ 20,000 million, US$ 10,000 million of sales in the spot market and US$ 10,000 million of sales of hedging instruments. International reserves are approximately US$ 40,000 million. The statement publish...

​Chile’s constitutional deal
CHILE · In Brief · 16 Nov 2019 · 1 response

After nearly a month of almost daily protest intermixed with sporadic violence (mostly arson and looting), practically the entire political spectrum has come together to agree on a process for designing and approving a new constitution. The agreement, signed by representatives of almost every pol...

CHILE: ​New cabinet, old problem
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Oct 2019

Sebastián Piñera continued with his efforts to address the ten-day old protest movement by announcing a major cabinet shuffle. This was not unexpected. The ouster of Interior Minister (and presidential cousin) Andres Chadwick was one of the principal demands of last Friday’s million-person march....

Medium-term effects of a long-term protest
CHILE · Report · 28 Oct 2019

To the deteriorated external environment, we must add the wave of protests. So far, we do not see reasons for major concern, at least from a medium-term macroeconomic perspective, although October’s Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) will certainly be considerably lower than it might have been. ...

CHILE: Piñera's offer. Too little, too late?
CHILE · In Brief · 23 Oct 2019

President Sebastián Piñera took to national television on Tuesday night to announce a series of measures that seek to do two things; to respond to the demands of protesters who have been on the streets since last Friday, and to save his skin. Whether he succeeded is not, at this point, entirely c...

​Regarding the recent disturbances in several cities in Chile
CHILE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2019

The impact on financial markets so far has been limited. At 10:50 am the Chilean peso depreciated about 2% against the dollar, in a context in which the exchange rate in several other countries were also increasing, although by somewhat smaller magnitudes. Short-term rates fell 6bp and longer-ter...

CHLE : Massive protest and state of emergency declared
CHILE · In Brief · 19 Oct 2019 · 1 response

On Friday night Sebastián Piñera declared a state of emergency for Santiago, following the worst riot Chile’s capital has seen since the return to democracy in 1990. Several buses and nineteen metro stations were burned, stores and banks looted, and the headquarters of Enel, an energy company, se...

It’s all about the trade war
CHILE · Report · 17 Sep 2019 · 1 response

The economy continues to cool. The Central Bank has revised its projections for 2019 GDP growth downward for the third consecutive time. The forecast range has fallen from 3.25%-4.25% in December 2018 to 2.25%-2.75% with a downward bias in September 2019 (the Central Bank stretches its forecast r...

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