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Internal growth is strengthening
CHINA · Forecast · 09 May 2019

The Chinese economy began showing a recovery pattern in Q1. GDP rose 6.4% y/y, though it was flat on Q4 2018. Industrial output was up 6.5% y/y, and up 0.8 pps from Q4. In March in particular, GDP rose 8.5% y/y, and up 1.4 pps from Q4 -- a powerful rebound, and its fastest growth rate since Augus...

Industrial output rebounds
CHINA · Report · 30 Apr 2019

The Chinese economy began to rebound in Q1, with GDP up 6.4% y/y, flat on Q4 2018. Industrial output was up 6.5% y/y, up 0.8 pps from Q4. Then in March, GDP rose a powerful 8.5% y/y, up 1.4 pps from Q4, to its fastest growth rate since August 2014. Investment, up 6.3% y/y, showed no clear tre...

Equal terms for foreign firms
CHINA · Report · 25 Mar 2019

Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced during his annual address to the People’s Congress of Beijing on March 5th that China’s growth target for 2019 would be in the 6% to 6.5% range. Another key takeaway is a significant 3 pps cut in value-added tax rate for manufacturers, to 13%. Industrial out...

Financial indicators reviving
CHINA · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Due to the seasonal lack of comparable y/y data in the month of Chinese New Year, we can only analyze data from imports and exports, and on financial conditions and price levels. Prices are trending downwards. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods has been slowing for the past three mont...

More government investment promised
CHINA · Forecast · 06 Feb 2019

Infrastructure investment growth saw its first rise in October 2018, up 3.7% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from September. This has been underscored in recent intensive announcements for new openings and approvals of mega-projects. The Chinese government’s relatively low public debt, at 47.6% of GDP, has m...

Growth-stoking investment push is on
CHINA · Report · 29 Jan 2019

GDP rose 6.6% y/y in 2018, down 0.2 pps from 2017. Growth rates declined each quarter throughout the year, falling from 6.8% y/y in Q1 to 6.4% y/y in Q4. Industrial output was up 6.2% y/y, down 0.4 pps from 2017. The manufacturing sector is the main reason for growth slowdown, and growth there f...

Consumption dips as growth hits new low
CHINA · Report · 26 Dec 2018

Top leaders’ annual Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 19th to 21st, set countering the ongoing growth downturn as its main 2019 goal for the economy. Leaders pledged to cut taxes and fees “on a greater scale;” to increase the issuance of local government bonds by “a relatively...

Trade surplus with the U.S. grew
CHINA · Report · 27 Nov 2018

Growth in October was stable, but slower. Industrial output was up 5.9% y/y, up only 0.1 pps from September. Investment was up 8% y/y, having risen for three consecutive months, and up 5 pps from July. State investment has accelerated, to counteract other negative growth factors. Retail sales ...

Trade war not yet hitting trade
CHINA · Forecast · 31 Oct 2018

Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Though the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps from Q2. Trade als...

FDI keeps flowing in
CHINA · Report · 29 Oct 2018

Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Although the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps from Q2. Trade a...

Deleveraging amid trade war
CHINA · Report · 27 Sep 2018

Growth is weak, but can still be viewed as stable. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, up 0.1 pps from July and down 0.5 pps from Q2. Fixed asset investment was up 4.1%, and negative in real terms; it could decline further in the future. CPI was up 2.3% y/y in August, and up 0.5 pps from May. ...

Despite financial turbulence, fundamentals are sound
CHINA · Report · 27 Aug 2018

Growth is still stable amid the uncertainty of trade war. Industrial output was up 6% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, and down 0.6 pps from Q2, still in a stable zone. Investment increased 3% y/y in July, down 2.2 pps from Q2, and down 3.8 pps from July 2017, showing a stark decline. But p...

Growth in spite of trade war
CHINA · Forecast · 06 Aug 2018

GDP was up 6.8% y/y in H1, the same rate as in H2 2017. Industrial output was up 6.7% y/y, up 0.4 pps, while investment was up 6% -- down 2.6 pps, and up only 0.3% y/y in real terms, down 3.5 pps from H1 2017. The major drop in state investment is likely the main cause for the slowdown. Possibly ...

Weak Yuan compensating for potential trade war losses
CHINA · Report · 23 Jul 2018

GDP was up 6.8% y/y in H1, the same rate as in H2 2017. Industrial output was up 6.7% y/y, up 0.4 pps from H2 2017. Fixed asset investment was up 6% y/y in H1, down 2.6 pps from H1 2017, and up only 0.3% y/y in real terms, down 3.5 pps from last H1. The major drop of state investment is likel...

Downward pressure on growth
CHINA · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Growth is facing downward pressure. Chinese fixed asset investment, a key growth driver, was up by a new low of just 3.9% y/y in May, and down 3.6 pps from Q1, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would apply tariffs of 25% to roughly $50 billion worth of Chinese goods....