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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Bubble Burst, the Chinese Way
CHINA · Report · 29 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Though growth is still low, we expect it to pick up H2, driven by several positive factors. GDP grew 7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. Industrial output in Q2 was up 6.3% y/y, virtually flat on Q1. But output was up 6.8% y/y in June, its highest level this year, and up 1.2 pps fro...

Stock Market Boom Amid a Down Economy
CHINA · Report · 19 Jun 2015

Executive Summary We believe the growth slowdown has already bottomed out, and think growth will slowly rebound from here. Fixed asset investment rose 10% y/y in May, up 0.6 pps from April, while value added for major industrial firms rose 6.1% y/y, up 0.5 pps from its lowest level in March. Reta...

Openness Driving Reforms
CHINA · Report · 22 May 2015

Executive Summary With an abrupt single day’s notice, the Central Bank on May 11th cut its benchmark interest rates for loans and deposits by 25 bp, and expanded the floating interval from 1.3 times interest rates to 1.5 times. These measures came in response to new weak growth data. We expect mo...

Deflation Continues
CHINA · Forecast · 06 May 2015

Executive Summary Crimped by economic slowdown and weak demand, GDP growth slid to a new low in Q1, edging up just 0.3 pp from Q4 2014, to 7% y/y. Value added for major industrial firms fell 1.2 pp, to grow only 6.4% y/y. Industrial output growth took the biggest hit, falling to 5.6% y/y in March...

Yuan Appreciation is Hurting Manufacturing
CHINA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary GDP growth hit a new low in Q1, with its 7% y/y rise just a 0.3 pp uptick from Q4 2014. Value added for major industrial firms rose only 6.4% y/y, down 1.2 pps from Q4. Industrial output growth took the biggest hit, falling to 5.6% y/y in March. Retail sales of social consumptio...

Government Aims for 7% Growth
CHINA · Report · 25 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced in an address to Congress on March 4th that China was aiming for growth of about 7% for 2015. And he stated that more structural reform would be needed going forward. The economy continued to slow in January and February. Industrial outp...

The FDI Split
CHINA · Report · 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Exports fell -3.3% y/y in January in dollar terms, down 11.8 pps from Q4. Export weakening was likely due to yuan appreciation against the dollar. Imports fell -19.9% y/y, down 18.3 pps. After correcting for the effects of the Chinese New Year holiday, import figures should a...

Lower Growth for the Long Haul
CHINA · Forecast · 09 Feb 2015

Executive Summary China’s main indicators show that the economy has reached a “new normal” stage, of relatively low yet stable performance. Real GDP rose 7.4% in 2014, down 0.3 pp from 2013. That puts growth below 8% for three years in a row. Quarterly growth rates were fairly flat last year, ...

The “New Normal”
CHINA · Report · 29 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Growth has been slowing, with the 7.4% rise in real GDP in 2014 representing a 0.3 pp dip from 2013. That means growth has run below 8% for three years in a row. Quarterly growth rates were quite flat last year, too. Some depressive factors are worth noting. First, industr...

More Free Trade Zones Established
CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment rose 14.9% y/y in real terms in November, while industrial output fell further, up 7.2% y/y, down almost 2 pps from H1. Time is needed for the Central Bank’s November interest rate cuts to have a positive effect on real economy. Retail sales of consu...

Bring Them to the Cities!
CHINA · Report · 23 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Though the Central Economic Work Conference in early December didn’t set a GDP growth target for 2014, many pundits suspect it will be in the 7.2%-7.5% range. Premier Li Keqiang reportedly remarked that 7.2% seemed to be the necessary level for satisfying 2014 Chinese employment...

PBOC Cuts Interest Rates
CHINA · Report · 01 Dec 2014

Executive Summary On November 21, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced it was cutting one-year benchmark lending rates by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent. It lowered one-year benchmark deposit rates by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent. This is the first time central bank changed its monet...

Growth Rate Is Lower Than Targeted
CHINA · Forecast · 10 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Our growth projection for 2014 falls between the government’s 7.5% forecast, and the lower projection of our pessimistic peers: we foresee 2014 growth at 7.4%. Though GDP grew 7.3% y/y in Q3, down just 0.2 pps from Q2, China’s main economic indicators suggested that the true ...

Over-Tightened Policies Constrain Growth
CHINA · Report · 31 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Though GDP grew 7.3% y/y in Q3, down just 0.2 pps from Q2, principal economic indicators suggested that the true situation might be worse. Industrial output rose 8% y/y, down 0.9 pps from Q2. Fixed asset investment increased 14.4% y/y, down 2.8 pps, to a record low. Retail...

FDI Meets Structural Change
CHINA · Report · 19 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment increased 13.8% y/y in real terms in August, its lowest growth rate so far this year. Industrial output rose 6.9% y/y, down 2.1 pps from July, likewise a significant fall, to below even the weakest growth seen during the Asian Financial Crisis. If gover...

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