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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Savings, investment and politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Apr 2022

Two years into the COVID pandemic, the Colombian economy has experienced roller-coaster swings the likes of which it has never witnessed before. The dramatic downturn of 2020, followed by a remarkable rebound in 2021, is already a well-known fact; we are also well aware of the stark deterioration...

Everyone woke up worried
COLOMBIA · Report · 14 Mar 2022 · 1 response

As of March 14th, we assign a 40% probability to a Petro victory. Petro or the center-right candidate have a similar predicament, namely the support of its base and the support of the undecided, swing voters, not aligned politically. This is a delicate and beautiful balance to be forged either...

Petro as an instrument of revenge
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Gustavo Petro's proposals seem inspired less by hope than by a spirit of revenge. His most notorious proposals are: 1) end oil exploration and export; 2) use primary money creation at zero cost to finance expenditure; 3) grab pension savings to pay for education and the elderly; 4) impose tariffs...

Political poll summary for the 2022 elections
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Mar 2022

In this slide presentation, we report on the most recent polling data in anticipation of the upcoming March 13 and May 29 elections in Colombia. This data includes vote intentions for political coalitions in the March 13 elections, vote intentions for presidential candidates in the May 29 electio...

Positive fiscal surprises mask threatening increases in spending
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Feb 2022

Deficit numbers for 2021 came in substantially below the previous round of government projections; the same happened with debt. Minister Restrepo hinted at even better results when definitive 2021 GDP numbers come out in mid-February. The context Restrepo provided prior to releasing the defici...

What a mess
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Feb 2022

How to shrink the current 20-plus presidential pool to five, and then two? That is the point of the three rounds of voting on March 13th, May 29th and June 19th. Indeed, poll leaders Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández will have an almost sure spot in the first round. Next comes Oscar Iván Zuluag...

High inflation could warrant surprise Central Bank move
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2022

In January 2022, CPI annual inflation was 6.94%, surpassing the 6.31% expected by the respondents to the Central Bank survey. Food, increase of 19.94%, however 186 of the 188 classes of goods and services had price increases. So, it is a widespread phenomenon that goes well beyond food (see Table...

Would Petro be a transformer, or a disrupter?
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Dec 2021 · 1 response

Loans disbursed in December 2020 deteriorated much faster than those granted before the pandemic. It looks as though the end of 2020 marked the peak in the speed of credit quality deterioration. Loans disbursed in July 2021 seem marginally better, in terms of quality deterioration, than those dis...

​The risks of March
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Nov 2021

Overall economic activity hit during this year’s national strike has regained its momentum and, since June, is exceeding 2019 pre-crisis levels. Tertiary activities, which could be broadly understood as aggregating services, is the driving force in the economy right now. In primary activities, ag...

Duque’s sad swan song
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Oct 2021

As President Iván Duque starts walking into the sunset (a new president will take office in 10 months), a pressing concern apparently plagues his thoughts: no incumbent would like to see voters exhibit change of heart and elect a successor from the opposite side of the political spectrum. But giv...

Nearing recovery
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Sep 2021

Q2 GDP numbers were anxiously awaited, given the collective desperate need to determine whether Colombia had returned to pre-crisis economic activity levels. Dane data shows that the country is almost there in aggregate terms, though there are significant sectoral variations. In general, services...

Life in the “post” country
COLOMBIA · Report · 18 Aug 2021

Has economic activity returned to 2019 levels? Based on the data, the answer is a qualified “yes.” The index for economic activity rebounded in H1 2021, after falling around 7.8% in 2020, with services mainly saving the day. If social unrest doesn’t resurface with enough intensity to damage econo...

Reality bites
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jul 2021 · 1 response

The new MTFF, inconsistent with keeping investment grade in place, is proposing a drastic increase in fiscal space for the next decade. The central government deficit should fall from 8.6% of GDP in 2021 to 7% in 2022, and then converge, by 2027, to deficits of 2.5%-2.7%. But we show that the “b...

Sleepless in Cali
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Jun 2021

Destabilization via vandalism, roadblocks in major cities and paralysis of the crucial Buenaventura seaport has been effective, proving Colombia quite vulnerable to obstructions in key logistical corridors. The country may be at a critical moment, similar to that of 1903, when Panama broke away. ...

Alborotation
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 May 2021

Alboroto is agitation, excitement, racket, disturbance, commotion, ruckus and finally, riot. This is what President Iván Duque and his now-ex Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla generated with their ill-fated tax reform proposal, aimed at redistributing income from the middle and affluent class...

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