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Too Close To Be Good
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Mar 2017

The latest polls published March 21st by four independent pollsters give Lenin Moreno, the official candidate an advantage of around 4% over Guillermo Lasso, the candidate from the opposition for the second round election that will take place next April the second. Null and blank votes sum a...

Lenin Moreno leads electoral polls
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Mar 2017

Four pollsters published electoral forecasts yesterday and all of them give an advantage to the official candidate Lenin Moreno that is around 4% to 5% of valid votes. The trend, however, seems to favor Moreno which makes it quite difficult for Lasso to turn this result around. On average they pl...

Correa Directly Threatens Democracy
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Feb 2017

After admitting the fact of a second electoral round, President Correa´s behavior was quite erratic. First, he said he had no fears of the outcome on April 2 since Guillermo Lasso is the easiest candidate to defeat. But at the same time he threatened to apply the mechanism of “cross dead”. This m...

The Legacy From the People’s Revolution
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Feb 2017 · 1 response

With about 90% of votes counted, the official candidate Lenin Moreno received 39.12% against 28.31% for Guillermo Lasso. Therefore, Moreno already has more than 10% over Lasso´s votes – one of the requisites to win the election in just one round, and is 0.89% away from the second condition: at le...

ELECTIONS: Uncertainty and Anger
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Feb 2017

By 10:20 this morning 88.4% of votes have been counted giving the official candidate Lenin Moreno 39.11% of valid votes and Guillermo Lasso 28.30%. With these results, a second round will be necessary. However, we will have to wait for the official announcement from the National Electoral Council...

Moreno and Lasso Probably Disputing the Presidency
ECUADOR · In Brief · 10 Feb 2017

According to the Electoral Law, February 8th was the last day to publish presidential polls results before the elections on February 19th. These last publications are not much different from the ones provided back in January 24th. Around 30% of Ecuadorians still have not yet decided whom they wil...

Mislead and Succeed
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Jan 2017

The government has played a masterful hand, using the Odebrecht scandal regarding bribes paid to Ecuadorian government officers to cover up the more costly case​ of Petroecuador, in which top officials such as Carlos Pareja Yanuselli are involved. Ecuadorians seem to be more preoccupied with...

Voters Taking a Wait-and-See Stance
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Dec 2016

Ecuador is experiencing a revolting yearend, due to several corruption scandals linked to government officials, and to severe social disruption over mining issues in the large Morona Santiago province. The web of corruption discovered in Petroecuador has reached its highest officials, has impl...

Abandoning the Ostracism?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Nov 2016

On November 11, Juan Carlos Cassinelli, Minister of Trade finally signed the accession of Ecuador to the free trade agreement with the European Union. Falling oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar forced Correa to put aside his bias against trade agreements in order to avoid some $0.5b i...

Elections Offer Turning Point Opportunity
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Oct 2016 · 1 response

Ecuadorians know that the 2017 electoral stakes are high: their choices could define the continuation or the end of a political and economic model that has lasted for 10 years, supported by many, but hated by many, too. The departure of a charismatic leader, the economic crisis and the vulnerabil...

Fuzzy Economic and Political Panorama
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Sep 2016 · 1 response

President Correa and the government are making all efforts to achieve in three months what they neglected to pursue in the past 10 years. The trade preferences with the European Union end in December and will cost the export sector $400 million. Correa is offering to compensate exporters for thes...

Costly to Sovereignty
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Aug 2016

Central Bank President Diego Martinez continues to deny that Ecuador is experiencing an economic crisis, and prefers to call the 3% of GDP plunge in Q1 a “cooling down of the economy,” due mostly to external factors.He also seemed confident that H2 would bring recovery, and only 2.5% shrinkage, a...

Guillermo Lasso and the Ecuadorian Debt
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Aug 2016

Some of our clients have expressed their concern regarding recent statements from Presidential Candidate Guillermo Lasso regarding his intention of "reviewing all foreign debt issued under this government".The statement is surprising coming from a former banker who truly understands the rules of ...

Trying Times
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Jul 2016

The Ecuadorian economy contracted severely in Q1, with GDP shrinking 1.9% q/q, and 3% y/y. Despite the poor performance of oil revenues due to plummeting oil prices, the oil sector value added was still positive, at 2% q/q and 1% y/y, while the non-oil sector shrank 2.2% q/q and 2.6% y/y. Hous...

Playing Political Games, As the Economy Burns
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Jun 2016

With his popularity and credibility falling to 35%, from 60% last year, and government corruption scandals erupting everywhere, President Rafael Correa is reverting to an old political strategy: targeting new enemies, in a strategy to regain lost support. The first target is Catherine Holli...