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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The clock is ticking
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2019 · 1 response

Low inflation rates of 0.14% (cumulative) and 0.33% (y/y), together with lower-than-expected tax collections as of September, and a large contraction in non-oil import growth, which fell from 16.6% to 2.2% as of July, speak of economic stagnation. The consumer confidence index also fell, to 36.2 ...

Moreno's hardships in the way of the IMF Agreement?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Aug 2019

President Moreno has stated he is not seeking re-election. However, it seems he wants to finish his office term as a popular president, or at least not be forced out of office. He recently had to face the protests of thousands of teachers who retired under the promise of former President Corre...

A kind IMF
ECUADOR · Forecast · 12 Jul 2019

GDP grew 0.6% y/y in Q1 2019, but the economic contraction is evident because q/q it fell 1% in this period. In fact, only exports contributed positively to GDP growth as they rose 3.9% q/q and 3.5% y/y. Private and government consumption, and investment showed negative q/q changes of 1.4%, 4.6% ...

Successful Outcome for Liability Management
ECUADOR · In Brief · 17 Jun 2019

The Ministry of Finance confirmed that the liability management operation that took place last week through which Ecuador issued $1125 million in bonds maturing in 2029 with a coupon of 10.75% and a yield of 9.059%, received a positive response from bondholders of sovereign bonds maturing in 2020...

Not a minute to lose
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Jun 2019

The IMF mission assessing Ecuador’s compliance with the goals for Q1 set up under the agreement visited the country in the past few weeks. The official report has not been published yet, but apparently there is no reason to believe that the Republic will not receive the attached disbursements bec...

To raise or not to raise the VAT?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 May 2019

Against all odds, Alianza Pais captured the presidency of the National Assembly with 78 votes – 40 from Alianza Pais, 18 from CREO and the remaining from Integracion Nacional in exchange for two vice-presidencies and at least two commissions that are under negotiation as of this writing. Cesar...

Moreno under attack
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Apr 2019

The Social Christian Party came out as the absolute winner of the recent local government elections, while the official party, Alianza Pais (AP), suffered a shameful defeat. This defeat was on President Moreno´s head, according to party members, as they felt like “political orphans” due to the la...

Correa is not dead
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Mar 2019

Ecuador finally signed an Extended Fund Facility agreement with the IMF, which will help the country return to a more sustainable economic model over the next three years. The IMF will provide $4.2 million of gradual financing during the life of the agreement, and other multilateral organizations...

Agreement Number 19
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Feb 2019 · 1 response

After much hesitation, the government reached an extended fund facility for $4.2 billion with the IMF, which according to President Moreno´s statement, will open the door to $6.0 billion from the World Bank, the IDB, CAF, the European Investment Bank, FLAR and the French Development Agency. This ...

Too many doubts, too many delays, and a step back
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Jan 2019

President Moreno has given preferential attention to the reconstruction of democratic institutions, achieving important even if insufficient outcomes. However, restoration of the macroeconomic and fiscal equilibrium still evidences weaknesses in its conceptual and practical development. A lack of...

How different will be 2019 from 2018?
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Dec 2018

Ecuador will close year 2018 with a dismal GDP y-o-y growth of 1% and perspectives for 2019 are not more encouraging. Economic transition from the Socialism of the 21st Century to a more sustainable model, will take place later than sooner due to an excessively cautious economic policy and to ...

Moreno 2, Vice presidents 0
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicunia, Vicepresident of Ecuador presented her resignation today after accusations of extortion of public servants during Correa’s government. Vicunia has not denied public servants made payments in exchange of public jobs, but she said those payments were “volunta...

At a turning point?
ECUADOR · Presentation · 08 Nov 2018 · 4 responses

Ecuador is at a turning point – opportunities include a willingness to change from Correa’s economic model, optimistic perspectives on the oil industry and better relationships with trade partners. Risks include lack of political coherence and a weakening of Moreno’s popularity, as well as the po...

Nothing has been decided yet, but everything is being considered
ECUADOR · Forecast · 17 Oct 2018 · 1 response

The second quarter of 2018 ended with a small recovery in growth from Q1, but we do not think it is a convincing sign of a full economic recovery. Year over year GDP grew 0.9%, and quarter over quarter it is up 0.4%. Spending – both government and household – is supporting this upward trend, incr...

Following the right path, albeit too slowly
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Sep 2018

Ecuador is one of the countries facing a humanitarian crisis of large proportions brought on by the massive exodus of millions of Venezuelans escaping from heart-breaking living conditions. Last week, President Moreno, represented by Minister of Foreign Affairs Jose Valencia, led an international...

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