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Macroeconomic conditions and outlook in the second wave
INDIA · Report · 18 May 2021

In April, there was a dramatic “second wave” of the pandemic in India. This has been a health catastrophe, particularly for the urban rich and for rural populations. In this report, we review conditions in early 2021 and summarize present health knowledge about the second wave. We look ahead i...

A second wave of Covid-19 in India
INDIA · In Brief · 18 Apr 2021

Through 2020, sero-prevalence data was showing a large-scale spread of the disease within India. Alongside this, a large surge of Covid-19 related deaths was not visible. The analysis of excess deaths data showed that the fingerprints of Covid-19 in death -- male, elderly, co-morbidities, urban -...

The burden of public debt management impinges on monetary policy
INDIA · Report · 08 Apr 2021

There has long been an awkward feature of the Indian institutional environment: The central bank also conducts public debt management, banking regulation, aspires to control the exchange rate, and controls the operations and regulation of the bond market. Given this backdrop and the changes that ...

Suez Canal Blockage
INDIA · In Brief · 26 Mar 2021

The blockage in the Suez Canal is an important problem for global trade. It is particularly important for India. Increased costs of transportation are tantamount to a government-induced barrier to trade.The two biggest ports of India, at Nhava Sheva and Mundra, are on the West Coast. Indian trade...

Understanding the rebound in the economy
INDIA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

The most interesting questions about the Indian economy today are about the rebound in the economy after the depths of the lockdowns. How complete is this recovery? And, looking ahead, will we get back to sustained growth?

​Budget 2021-22
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

The problem. Most GDP growth and jobs emerge from the willingness of private persons to put equity capital and emotional energy into building private organizations. The most important problem of the Indian economy is the loss of dynamism in private investment from 2011 onwards. In recent years, w...

CPI inflation
INDIA · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

Through 2020, a great debate had raged on the question of inflation and the inflation targeting regime.Under the inflation targeting regime, headline inflation (i.e. year-on-year CPI inflation) is required to stay between 2 and 6 per cent. In December 2019, the bound was breached, when inflation ...

The macro economy in 2021
INDIA · Report · 11 Jan 2021

The 2021 budget announcement will come on February 1. In this note, we review the overall macroeconomic situation. While vaccines will help reduce fear, India is at the late stage of the epidemic through the onset of herd immunity. Household consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels. I...

Credit stress in large private firms - an update
INDIA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

In this report, we review the state of credit stress in large private firms. Given the debt moratoriums and the suspension of the bankruptcy process, a good deal of the bad news is not visible in conventional accounting data. The Merton/KMV model exploits the level and volatility of stock prices,...

The fiscal situation − implications for the future
INDIA · Report · 20 Nov 2020

Some measures of the fiscal situation for the first half of 2020-21 are now visible. Gross tax revenues of the union government were down by 21.6%, spending by the union government was flat, and the gap was made up using an increase in borrowing. This has induced daunting levels of borrowing per ...

Difficulties in a small private bank
INDIA · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

1. India has experienced a financial crisis from about 2012 onwards.2. At present, there is no resolution framework for financial firms. Hence, when balance-sheet based lenders (either investment banks or banks) get into trouble, there is no playbook for their resolution. The various claimants on...

Peering into the recovery
INDIA · Report · 17 Nov 2020

India has had a relatively good experience, by world standards, in the pandemic. While many have been infected, demand for hospitalization (or death) is taking place at modest rates. Many regions in India are approaching herd immunity. The large listed non-financial firms experienced a decline...

The problem of inflation
INDIA · Report · 18 Aug 2020

By law, the RBI is expected to deliver year-on-year CPI inflation in a range from 2 to 6 per cent. In recent months, headline inflation has often overshot above 6 per cent. Why has this happened? Petroleum product prices in India did not drop in line with the collapse in the world price of cru...

Tracking the recovery from the lockdown
INDIA · Report · 08 Jun 2020

One of most interesting questions in Indian economics today is that of tracking the decline of the economy after the lockdown, and its recovery ever since. As the standard macroeconomic measurement in India works poorly, it is important to come at this question using novel data sources. In thi...

Rescuing the financial system
INDIA · Report · 13 May 2020 · 1 response

On May 12, the Prime Minister made a speech in which he talked about Rs.20 trillion that will be brought into play (in ways that are as yet unspecified). He struck an optimistic note, suggesting that the worst of the epidemic is behind us, and that we now rebuild. There was a surprising emphasis ...

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